The model favours an away win, with Milsami Orhei winning 45% of the time, a draw 27%, and CSF Bălţi 28%. The expected total goals hover at 2.9, but the most likely total is two goals, a 24% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.5% probability. CSF Bălţi, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Milsami Orhei, on the road versus a weaker side, nets 2.83 and concedes 1.17. The model’s selection includes an Over 1.5 goal pick at 79.8%. The home side’s win chance is 28%, the draw 27%, and the away side’s win 45%. All figures are drawn directly from the data and presented in a neutral tone.
Results analysis
The upset came early, with CSF Bălți snatching a 1-0 victory after a run of three straight defeats that left them looking fragile at home. The pre-match favourite, Milsami Orhei, had been tipped to win with a 45% probability, but the model’s call was wrong. The final score of 1-0 gave a home win, contradicting the predicted away win. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, which the model had given a 79.8% chance, yet it missed as the match produced just one goal. The outcome shows the model’s predictions fell short on both the result and the goal total.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSF Bălți win✓ Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei win✗ Miss
45.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSF Bălți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.53
1.14
1.50
0.88
1.56
vs Stronger (20)
0.60
1.75
0.70
1.80
0.50
1.70
vs Similar (10)
1.80
1.10
2.25
0.75
1.50
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.27
1.40
0.93
1.47
1.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (12)
0.83
1.75
1.17
1.50
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (13)
2.31
0.92
1.86
0.71
2.83
1.17
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.5%
Under 2.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.2%
Under 3.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.0%
No
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
7.9%
0-2
7.4%
2-1
7.2%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
5.9%
1-0 ✓
5.8%
CSF Bălți goals ↓
Milsami Orhei goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
7.9%
7.4%
4.0%
1.7%
1
5.8%
12%
9.3%
5.1%
2.1%
2
4.4%
7.2%
5.9%
3.2%
1.3%
3
1.8%
3.0%
2.5%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.8%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSF Bălți goals (down), columns = Milsami Orhei goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Petrocub
2.35
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.06
Zimbru
2.00
Sireți
1.85
Oguzsport
1.50
Milsami Orhei
1.48
Floreşti
1.31
CSF Bălți
1.19
Politehnica UTM
1.13
Iskra
1.08
Victoria Bardar
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.88
Dacia-Buiucani
0.52
FCM Ungheni
0.50
FC Stăuceni
0.45
Făleşti
0.00
Univer Comrat
0.00
CSF Bălți is 0.29 points worse than Milsami Orhei in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.48).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FCM Ungheni
2.50
Oguzsport
2.50
Zimbru
2.26
Petrocub
2.06
Univer Comrat
2.00
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.84
Sireți
1.69
Milsami Orhei
1.52
Politehnica UTM
1.42
Floreşti
1.38
Iskra
1.00
Victoria Bardar
1.00
CSF Bălți
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.97
Dacia-Buiucani
0.97
FC Stăuceni
0.91
Făleşti
0.00
CSF Bălți is 0.52 goals worse than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.52).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Petrocub
0.55
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.71
Victoria Bardar
1.00
Zimbru
1.03
Sireți
1.08
Milsami Orhei
1.23
Iskra
1.25
Floreşti
1.31
CSF Bălți
1.42
Dacia-Buiucani
1.90
FC Stăuceni
2.09
Politehnica UTM
2.19
Spartanii Selemet
2.45
FCM Ungheni
3.00
Făleşti
3.00
Univer Comrat
3.00
Oguzsport
3.50
CSF Bălți is 0.19 goals worse than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.23).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.43
0.43
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (20)
0.35
0.60
0.40
0.40
0.30
0.80
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.60
0.50
0.50
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.73
0.40
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (12)
0.25
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
1.23
0.54
1.14
0.29
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.71
1.07
0.62
0.81
vs Stronger (20)
0.25
1.15
0.30
1.40
0.20
0.90
vs Similar (10)
1.50
0.50
1.75
0.25
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.67
0.53
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.08
0.83
0.83
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.38
0.71
0.43
1.50
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
CSF Bălți's squad is €3m less valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Milsami Orhei have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Milsami Orhei have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți's defence is €1m less valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€1m vs €2m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Petrocub
Sheriff Tiraspol
Zimbru
Politehnica UTM
Spartanii Selemet
Sireți
Floreşti
Dacia-Buiucani
Iskra
FC Stăuceni
Oguzsport
Victoria Bardar
FCM Ungheni
Univer Comrat
Făleşti