CSF Bălți’s recent slump - three losses in a row - contrasts sharply with Milsami Orhei’s steadier form after a draw, setting the stage for an away victory, the model’s pick. The odds lean toward a 57% chance of a Milsami win, 24% for a draw and 19% for CSF Bălți. The average goal tally is 2.9, with the most likely total of two goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 11.5%. CSF Bălți, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, while Milsami, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 1.88 scored and 0.75 conceded. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99%, Under 7.5 at 99%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9%, Under 6.5 at 97.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.3%, Away +2 handicap at 93.1% and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.5%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSF Bălți win
18.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei win
57.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSF Bălți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
2.10
0.86
2.00
0.56
2.19
vs Stronger (21)
0.52
2.10
0.60
2.20
0.45
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.11
2.11
1.50
1.50
0.80
2.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.30
0.88
1.00
1.36
1.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (11)
0.73
2.27
0.71
1.57
0.75
3.50
vs Weaker (15)
1.53
0.73
1.14
0.71
1.88
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.8%
Under 2.5
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.4%
Under 3.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
9.8%
0-1
9.3%
0-0
6.5%
1-3
6.3%
0-3
6.3%
2-1
5.3%
CSF Bălți goals ↓
Milsami Orhei goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
9.3%
9.8%
6.3%
3.0%
1
4.4%
11%
9.9%
6.3%
3.0%
2
2.8%
5.3%
5.0%
3.2%
1.5%
3
0.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.1%
0.5%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSF Bălți goals (down), columns = Milsami Orhei goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
CSF Bălți is 0.89 points worse than Milsami Orhei in terms of average points per game (0.22 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
CSF Bălți is 0.33 goals worse than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals scored per game (0.56 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
CSF Bălți is 1.67 goals worse than Milsami Orhei in terms of goals conceded per game (3.22 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
CSF Bălți or Draw
42.7%
Avg Implied -
19%
24%
57%
covers CSF Bălți + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți or Milsami Orhei
75.9%
Avg Implied -
19%
24%
57%
covers CSF Bălți + Milsami Orhei
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Milsami Orhei
81.5%
Avg Implied -
19%
24%
57%
covers Draw + Milsami Orhei
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5
Over
63.5%
Under
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5
Over
26.8%
Under
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5
Over
85.2%
Under
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5
Over
56.8%
Under
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5
Over
29.8%
Under
70.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 3.5
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to CSF Bălți, so a minus line means CSF Bălți give that many goals of a start and Milsami Orhei receive them. At -1, CSF Bălți must win by two or more to land; a one-goal CSF Bălți win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (CSF Bălți)
CSF Bălți -2
1.9%
Draw -2
5.0%
Milsami Orhei +2
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (CSF Bălți)
CSF Bălți -1
6.9%
Draw -1
11.7%
Milsami Orhei +1
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (CSF Bălți)
CSF Bălți +1
42.7%
Draw +1
23.0%
Milsami Orhei -1
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (CSF Bălți)
CSF Bălți +2
65.6%
Draw +2
17.9%
Milsami Orhei -2
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
1.00
0.21
0.93
0.19
1.06
vs Stronger (21)
0.24
0.90
0.20
1.00
0.27
0.82
vs Similar (9)
0.11
1.22
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.31
0.31
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.82
0.43
0.57
0.00
1.25
vs Weaker (15)
0.73
0.33
0.14
0.14
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.1%
Under 0.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.0%
Under 1.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.7%
Under 2.5
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 HT
Over
54.6%
Under
45.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.64
1.07
0.38
1.12
vs Stronger (21)
0.29
1.19
0.40
1.20
0.18
1.18
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.89
1.25
0.75
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Milsami Orhei) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Milsami Orhei
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.56
0.69
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.45
1.45
0.29
1.00
0.75
2.25
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.40
1.00
0.57
0.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.2%
Under 0.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.9%
Under 1.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.4%
Under 2.5
82.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.6%
Under
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.1%
Under
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.6%
Under
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 1.5 2H
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Milsami Orhei over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
CSF Bălți's squad is €3m less valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Milsami Orhei have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Milsami Orhei have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți's defence is €1m less valuable than Milsami Orhei's (€1m vs €2m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zimbru
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Politehnica UTM
Sireți