CSF Bălți’s recent slide, losing three straight games and falling 0-3 to Petrocub, sets the stage for a clear favourite in the away side’s favour. Petrocub’s away form is strong, scoring 2.29 and conceding only 0.57 against weaker opponents, while CSF Bălți struggles at home, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded against stronger teams. The model therefore picks an away win, with a 66% probability, a draw at 22% and a home win at 12%. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 for Petrocub, with a 12.7% chance. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 99.2%, Under 6.5 at 97.6%, Away +2 handicap at 96.3%, Home under 2.5 goals at 95.9%, Under 5.5 at 93.6%, Draw or Away at 88.0% and Away +1 handicap at 88.0%. The model’s edge on the away win is reinforced by CSF Bălți’s venue weakness and Petrocub’s recent form.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSF Bălți win
9.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
19.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Petrocub win
71.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSF Bălți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
2.10
0.86
2.00
0.56
2.19
vs Stronger (21)
0.52
2.10
0.60
2.20
0.45
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.11
2.11
1.50
1.50
0.80
2.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrocub
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
0.67
2.71
0.57
1.56
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.73
0.87
2.83
0.83
1.00
0.89
vs Weaker (15)
2.47
0.47
2.62
0.38
2.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.0%
Under 1.5
21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.9%
Under 2.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.5%
Under 3.5
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.3%
No
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.7%
0-1
11.6%
0-3
10.1%
1-2
9.2%
1-1
9.2%
1-3
6.8%
0-0
6.5%
0-4
5.6%
CSF Bălți goals ↓
Petrocub goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
12%
14%
10%
5.6%
1
2.9%
9.2%
9.2%
6.8%
3.7%
2
1.3%
2.8%
3.1%
2.3%
1.2%
3
0.3%
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSF Bălți goals (down), columns = Petrocub goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
CSF Bălți is 1.33 points worse than Petrocub in terms of average points per game (0.22 vs 1.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
CSF Bălți is 1.33 goals worse than Petrocub in terms of goals scored per game (0.56 vs 1.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
CSF Bălți is 2.22 goals worse than Petrocub in terms of goals conceded per game (3.22 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
CSF Bălți or Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied -
9%
19%
72%
covers CSF Bălți + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți or Petrocub
80.8%
Avg Implied -
9%
19%
72%
covers CSF Bălți + Petrocub
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Petrocub
91.0%
Avg Implied -
9%
19%
72%
covers Draw + Petrocub
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5
Over
48.8%
Under
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 0.5
Over
89.0%
Under
11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5
Over
64.7%
Under
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5
Over
37.9%
Under
62.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 3.5
Over
18.2%
Under
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to CSF Bălți, so a minus line means CSF Bălți give that many goals of a start and Petrocub receive them. At -1, CSF Bălți must win by two or more to land; a one-goal CSF Bălți win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (CSF Bălți)
CSF Bălți -2
0.5%
Draw -2
2.0%
Petrocub +2
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (CSF Bălți)
CSF Bălți -1
2.5%
Draw -1
6.5%
Petrocub +1
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (CSF Bălți)
CSF Bălți +1
28.2%
Draw +1
23.3%
Petrocub -1
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (CSF Bălți)
CSF Bălți +2
51.6%
Draw +2
21.9%
Petrocub -2
26.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
1.00
0.21
0.93
0.19
1.06
vs Stronger (21)
0.24
0.90
0.20
1.00
0.27
0.82
vs Similar (9)
0.11
1.22
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrocub
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.30
1.21
0.21
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.53
1.17
0.50
0.22
0.56
vs Weaker (15)
1.47
0.07
1.25
0.00
1.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
77% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.64
1.07
0.38
1.12
vs Stronger (21)
0.29
1.19
0.40
1.20
0.18
1.18
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.89
1.25
0.75
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrocub
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.37
1.50
0.36
0.69
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.13
0.33
1.67
0.33
0.78
0.33
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.40
1.38
0.38
0.57
0.43
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Petrocub · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Victor Mudrac20%
Teodor Lungu20%
Ion Borș20%
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Teodor Lungu60%
Ion Jardan50%
Dumitru Demian33%
Dan Pușcaș20%
Ion Borș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dan Pușcaș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Ion Jardan0%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
CSF Bălți's squad is €5m less valuable than Petrocub's (€1m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
CSF Bălți's attack is €2m less valuable than Petrocub's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Petrocub have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți's defence is €2m less valuable than Petrocub's (€1m vs €2m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zimbru
Sheriff Tiraspol
Dacia-Buiucani
Politehnica UTM
Milsami Orhei
Sireți