CSF Bălți are the clear edge, with a 61% chance of victory, while the draw sits at 23% and Politehnica UTM at 16%. The model expects an average of three goals, but the most likely total is two, a 23% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.7% chance, reflecting the evenly matched form: CSF Bălți scores 2.33 and concedes 1.33 at home against similar opposition, whereas Politehnica UTM averages 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded on the road. The model’s selection is an Over 1.5, with an 81.1% probability of hitting. The final result will be a home win, 3-2. The recent form narrative is clear: CSF Bălți, after three straight defeats, faces Politehnica UTM, who are coming off a draw. This context underscores the likelihood of a hard-fought, high-scoring encounter.
Results analysis
The win extends CSF Bălți’s recent run, with a 3-2 triumph over Politehnica UTM confirming the model’s home-win prediction. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 61% probability and the outcome matched that call. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, carried an 81.1% chance and was hit as the match produced five goals. The most likely scoreline of 2-1 (9.9%) was not achieved, but the 1-1 and 2-0 options were close. CSF Bălți’s home form had dipped after three straight defeats, yet they rebounded to secure the victory, while Politehnica UTM, coming off a draw, could not capitalize on the opportunity.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSF Bălți win✓ Hit
61.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM win✗ Miss
16.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSF Bălți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.43
1.27
1.20
0.93
1.67
vs Stronger (20)
0.50
1.65
0.64
1.27
0.33
2.11
vs Similar (9)
2.00
1.11
2.33
1.33
1.83
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
0.00
5.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Politehnica UTM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.75
3.08
1.00
2.83
0.50
3.33
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
4.00
0.00
4.00
0.50
4.00
vs Similar (5)
1.40
1.80
2.00
1.67
0.50
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
8% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.1%
Under 1.5
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.8%
Under 2.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
35.4%
Under 3.5
64.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.8%
No
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
2-0
10.3%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.1%
3-0
7.0%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
5.9%
2-2
4.8%
CSF Bălți goals ↓
Politehnica UTM goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
3.8%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
1
9.1%
11%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.5%
0.4%
3
7.0%
6.8%
3.3%
1.0%
0.3%
4
3.6%
3.5%
1.7%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSF Bălți goals (down), columns = Politehnica UTM goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Petrocub
2.35
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.06
Zimbru
2.00
Sireți
1.85
Oguzsport
1.50
Milsami Orhei
1.48
Floreşti
1.31
CSF Bălți
1.19
Politehnica UTM
1.13
Iskra
1.08
Victoria Bardar
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.88
Dacia-Buiucani
0.52
FCM Ungheni
0.50
FC Stăuceni
0.45
Făleşti
0.00
Univer Comrat
0.00
CSF Bălți is 0.06 points better than Politehnica UTM in terms of average points per game (1.19 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FCM Ungheni
2.50
Oguzsport
2.50
Zimbru
2.26
Petrocub
2.06
Univer Comrat
2.00
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.84
Sireți
1.69
Milsami Orhei
1.52
Politehnica UTM
1.42
Floreşti
1.38
Iskra
1.00
Victoria Bardar
1.00
CSF Bălți
1.00
Spartanii Selemet
0.97
Dacia-Buiucani
0.97
FC Stăuceni
0.91
Făleşti
0.00
CSF Bălți is 0.42 goals worse than Politehnica UTM in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Petrocub
0.55
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.71
Victoria Bardar
1.00
Zimbru
1.03
Sireți
1.08
Milsami Orhei
1.23
Iskra
1.25
Floreşti
1.31
CSF Bălți
1.42
Dacia-Buiucani
1.90
FC Stăuceni
2.09
Politehnica UTM
2.19
Spartanii Selemet
2.45
FCM Ungheni
3.00
Făleşti
3.00
Univer Comrat
3.00
Oguzsport
3.50
CSF Bălți is 0.77 goals better than Politehnica UTM in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 2.19).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.40
0.67
0.20
0.33
0.60
vs Stronger (20)
0.30
0.45
0.36
0.18
0.22
0.78
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Politehnica UTM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.58
0.83
1.33
0.17
1.83
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
2.14
0.00
2.00
0.25
2.25
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.80
1.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.03
0.60
1.00
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (20)
0.20
1.20
0.27
1.09
0.11
1.33
vs Similar (9)
1.33
0.78
1.33
1.00
1.33
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Politehnica UTM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.25
1.50
0.17
1.50
0.33
1.50
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.86
0.00
2.00
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (5)
0.40
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
SS (12)
€1m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
FU (2)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Politehnica UTM have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Politehnica UTM have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
SS (4)
€0m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
FU (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Politehnica UTM have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
FU (2)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Politehnica UTM have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →