The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.2 goals and a most likely total of three, the 1-1 scoreline carrying a 11.3% chance. CSF Bălți, playing at home against a similarly-sized opponent, averages 1.5 goals for and 1.5 against, while Politehnica UTM, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.71 conceded. The model favours an away win, with probabilities of 29% for a home victory, 25% for a draw, and 46% for Politehnica UTM to lift the trophy. Recent form hints at a shift: CSF Bălți has lost three of its last five, while Politehnica UTM has only drawn once in five. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (98.3%), Under 6.5 (95.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6%), Under 5.5 (89.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.3%), Away +2 handicap (86.5%), Over 1.5 (83.8%) and Away over 0.5 goals (83.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSF Bălți win
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM win
48.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSF Bălți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
2.10
0.86
2.00
0.56
2.19
vs Stronger (21)
0.52
2.10
0.60
2.20
0.45
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.11
2.11
1.50
1.50
0.80
2.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Politehnica UTM
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.60
2.06
1.19
1.57
2.07
vs Stronger (14)
1.29
2.21
1.38
1.88
1.17
2.67
vs Similar (14)
2.43
1.14
2.86
0.57
2.00
1.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.4%
Under 1.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.3%
Under 2.5
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.0%
Under 3.5
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.8%
No
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.1%
2-1
6.8%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
6.3%
1-3
5.8%
0-0
5.3%
CSF Bălți goals ↓
Politehnica UTM goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
6.7%
7.1%
4.4%
2.0%
1
4.6%
11%
9.5%
5.8%
2.7%
2
3.7%
6.8%
6.3%
3.8%
1.8%
3
1.7%
3.0%
2.8%
1.7%
0.8%
4
0.5%
1.0%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSF Bălți goals (down), columns = Politehnica UTM goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
CSF Bălți is 1.11 points worse than Politehnica UTM in terms of average points per game (0.22 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
CSF Bălți is 1.11 goals worse than Politehnica UTM in terms of goals scored per game (0.56 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
CSF Bălți is 1.89 goals worse than Politehnica UTM in terms of goals conceded per game (3.22 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
CSF Bălți or Draw
51.6%
Avg Implied -
27%
25%
48%
covers CSF Bălți + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți or Politehnica UTM
75.1%
Avg Implied -
27%
25%
48%
covers CSF Bălți + Politehnica UTM
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Politehnica UTM
73.2%
Avg Implied -
27%
25%
48%
covers Draw + Politehnica UTM
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5
Over
73.5%
Under
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5
Over
38.3%
Under
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 3.5
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5
Over
84.1%
Under
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5
Over
54.8%
Under
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5
Over
27.9%
Under
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 3.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to CSF Bălți, so a minus line means CSF Bălți give that many goals of a start and Politehnica UTM receive them. At -1, CSF Bălți must win by two or more to land; a one-goal CSF Bălți win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (CSF Bălți)
CSF Bălți -2
4.1%
Draw -2
7.9%
Politehnica UTM +2
88.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (CSF Bălți)
CSF Bălți -1
11.9%
Draw -1
14.8%
Politehnica UTM +1
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (CSF Bălți)
CSF Bălți +1
51.6%
Draw +1
20.9%
Politehnica UTM -1
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (CSF Bălți)
CSF Bălți +2
72.6%
Draw +2
15.0%
Politehnica UTM -2
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
1.00
0.21
0.93
0.19
1.06
vs Stronger (21)
0.24
0.90
0.20
1.00
0.27
0.82
vs Similar (9)
0.11
1.22
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Politehnica UTM
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.67
1.19
0.69
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.00
0.75
1.12
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (14)
1.29
0.36
1.71
0.29
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.10
0.64
1.07
0.38
1.12
vs Stronger (21)
0.29
1.19
0.40
1.20
0.18
1.18
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.89
1.25
0.75
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Politehnica UTM) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Politehnica UTM
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.93
0.88
0.50
0.93
1.43
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
1.21
0.62
0.75
0.67
1.83
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.79
1.14
0.29
1.14
1.29
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Politehnica UTM over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
CSF Bălți and Politehnica UTM have a similar squad value (both €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Politehnica UTM have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Politehnica UTM have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Politehnica UTM have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
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Zimbru
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Dacia-Buiucani
Milsami Orhei
Sireți