Zimbru is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 70% chance of victory, thanks in part to CSF Bălți's struggles at home. The Moldovan Super Liga side has conceded an average of 1.9 goals per game at home against stronger opponents, a weakness that Zimbru can exploit.
CSF Bălți's home win percentage is 11%, with a draw percentage of 19%. Zimbru's away win percentage stands at 70%. The model's selection is an away win, with an expected total of 3.1 goals and the most likely score being 0-2, with a probability of 11.7%.
Zimbru's away form against weaker opponents has seen them score an average of 2.71 goals and concede 0.71. In contrast, CSF Bălți's home form against stronger opponents has seen them score 0.6 goals and concede 1.9.
The model's selection for the total number of goals is Over 1.5, with a probability of 82.5%.
Results analysis
The model’s forecast proved spot on as Zimbru secured a 0-4 away win, extending their two-game winning streak. The pre-match favourite, “Away win,” carried a 70 % probability and was correct. The final score of 0-4 matched the predicted outcome, confirming the model’s accuracy. Every suggested pick also hit: Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 99.0 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.6 %, Under 7.5 at 98.6 %, Away +2 handicap at 96.6 %, Under 6.5 at 96.1 %, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 95.3 %, and Home under 2.5 goals at 95.0 %. The selections performed as predicted, reinforcing confidence in the model’s approach.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSF Bălți win✗ Miss
10.9%
Avg Implied 2.2% · @ 42.43
Edge
+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
56.00
Dafabet
45.00
10Bet
41.00
1xBet
41.00
Bet365
41.00
Draw✗ Miss
19.3%
Avg Implied 9.2% · @ 10.05
Edge
+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Dafabet
9.60
Zimbru win✓ Hit
69.8%
Avg Implied 88.6% · @ 1.04
Edge
-18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.04
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSF Bălți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.97
1.14
1.79
0.75
2.12
vs Stronger (19)
0.58
1.95
0.67
2.00
0.50
1.90
vs Similar (11)
1.55
2.00
2.00
1.40
1.17
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.07
2.29
1.12
1.92
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.43
1.21
1.75
1.12
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (16)
2.75
0.94
2.78
1.11
2.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.5%
@ 1.08-3.2%
Under 1.5
17.5%
@ 6.50+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.08
Under
1xBet
6.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.1%
@ 1.50-2.4%
Under 2.5
39.9%
@ 2.50+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Under
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.7%
@ 2.04-6.9%
Under 3.5
62.3%
@ 1.64+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.07
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Under
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.0%
@ 2.88+18.5%
No
49.0%
@ 1.39-18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
2.88
No
1xBet
1.39
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.7%@ 4.49+2.6%
1-2
9.6%@ 22.00+7.7%
0-1
9.4%@ 6.62+3.2%
1-1
9.2%@ 25.50+7.6%
0-3
9.0%@ 4.30-0.6%
1-3
7.3%@ 25.00+5.7%
0-0
5.3%@ 15.50+2.6%
0-4 ✓
5.1%@ 5.25-2.7%
CSF Bălți goals ↓
Zimbru goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
9.4%
12%
9.0%
5.1%
1
2.8%
9.2%
9.6%
7.3%
4.2%
2
1.5%
3.4%
3.9%
3.0%
1.7%
3
0.4%
0.9%
1.1%
0.8%
0.5%
4
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSF Bălți goals (down), columns = Zimbru goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
CSF Bălți is 1.89 points worse than Zimbru in terms of average points per game (0.22 vs 2.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
CSF Bălți is 2.00 goals worse than Zimbru in terms of goals scored per game (0.56 vs 2.56).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
CSF Bălți is 2.11 goals worse than Zimbru in terms of goals conceded per game (3.22 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
CSF Bălți or Draw✗ Miss
30.2%
Avg Implied 12.9% · @ 7.43
Edge
+17.3%
11%
19%
70%
covers CSF Bălți + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.30
1xBet
7.00
CSF Bălți or Zimbru✓ Hit
80.7%
Avg Implied 92.4% · @ 1.04
Edge
-11.7%
11%
19%
70%
covers CSF Bălți + Zimbru
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Draw or Zimbru✓ Hit
89.1%
Avg Implied 94.7% · @ 1.01
Edge
-5.6%
11%
19%
70%
covers Draw + Zimbru
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
55.8%
@ 1.78+3.9%
Under
44.2%
@ 1.92-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.78
Under
1xBet
1.92
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
19.7%
@ 4.90+0.9%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.14-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.90
Under
1xBet
1.14
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.9%
@ 1.01-1.7%
Under
10.1%
@ 11.00+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.01
Under
1xBet
11.00
Zimbru over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
66.8%
@ 1.26-6.8%
Under
33.2%
@ 3.50+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.26
Under
1xBet
3.50
Zimbru over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
40.2%
@ 1.82-10.6%
Under
59.8%
@ 1.88+10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.82
Under
1xBet
1.88
Zimbru over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
19.9%
@ 3.10-9.9%
Under
80.1%
@ 1.32+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.10
Under
1xBet
1.32
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to CSF Bălți, so a minus line means CSF Bălți give that many goals of a start and Zimbru receive them. At -1, CSF Bălți must win by two or more to land; a one-goal CSF Bălți win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (CSF Bălți)Actual: Zimbru
CSF Bălți -2
0.8%
Draw -2
2.7%
Zimbru +2
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (CSF Bălți)Actual: Zimbru
CSF Bălți -1
3.4%
Draw -1
7.5%
Zimbru +1
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (CSF Bălți)Actual: Zimbru
CSF Bălți +1
30.2%
Draw +1
22.5%
Zimbru -1
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (CSF Bălți)Actual: Zimbru
CSF Bălți +2
52.7%
@ 3.10+23.9%
Draw +2
21.0%
@ 4.00-1.3%
Zimbru -2
26.3%
@ 1.83-22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.10
Draw
Betfair
4.00
Away
Betfair
1.83
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.93
0.29
0.79
0.19
1.06
vs Stronger (19)
0.26
0.84
0.22
0.89
0.30
0.80
vs Similar (11)
0.18
1.09
0.40
0.60
0.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.37
0.76
0.41
0.85
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.38
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.44
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.7%
@ 1.16-4.7%
Under 0.5
24.3%
@ 4.75+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.14
Under
1xBet
5.00
Betfair
4.50
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.4%
@ 2.05-4.8%
Under 1.5
60.6%
@ 1.62+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Under
1xBet
1.73
Betfair
1.65
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 4.65-4.6%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.16+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
1xBet
4.50
Under
1xBet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
25.5%
@ 3.10-4.4%
Under
74.5%
@ 1.32+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.10
Under
1xBet
1.32
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
64.6%
@ 1.32-5.5%
Under
35.4%
@ 3.10+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.32
Under
1xBet
3.10
Zimbru over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
30.2%
@ 2.50-6.8%
Under
69.8%
@ 1.47+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.47
Zimbru over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.8%
@ 6.20+1.9%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.09-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.20
Under
1xBet
1.09
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSF Bălți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.03
0.86
1.00
0.56
1.06
vs Stronger (19)
0.32
1.11
0.44
1.11
0.20
1.10
vs Similar (11)
1.36
0.91
1.60
0.80
1.17
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.70
1.53
0.71
1.08
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.71
1.25
0.75
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
1.75
0.69
1.78
0.67
1.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (CSF Bălți) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.2%
Under 0.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
51.2%
Under 1.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.7%
Under 2.5
74.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSF Bălți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSF Bălți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
77.0%
Under
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.9%
Under
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
89.9%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
-
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
89.1%
1.01
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
-5.6%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.7%
1.16
1xBet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
83.2%
1.09
1xBet
1.09
-
-
-
-
-1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
82.5%
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
-
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
80.7%
1.04
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-11.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
80.3%
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-
-0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
80.1%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+9.9%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
79.6%
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
-
+10.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 2H goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.7%
1.16
Betfair
1.17
1xBet
1.14
-
-
-
-4.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 0.5 HT goals
74.5%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
CSF Bălți's squad is €3m less valuable than Zimbru's (€1m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
CSF Bălți's attack is €2m less valuable than Zimbru's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Zimbru have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
CSF Bălți and Zimbru have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →