This match between CSM Reșița and ASA Targu Mures in the Romania: Liga II is finely balanced, with ASA Targu Mures having ended a 2-game losing streak and CSM Reșița boasting a 2-game winning run. However, the model's selection is the away win, with a probability of 39%. The model also suggests that the match will end in a draw, with a probability of 29%. CSM Reșița's home win probability stands at 33%.
The expected total number of goals in this match is 2.6, and the most likely total number of goals is 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.8%. CSM Reșița has a strong home form, averaging 1.18 goals scored and conceded at home, particularly against similar opponents. In contrast, ASA Targu Mures has struggled to score away from home, averaging 0.5 goals scored, but has also conceded 1.75 goals on average in away matches against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the away win, with the probability of 39%. It also suggests that the match will end in a draw, with a probability of 29%. The model's selections include Over 1.5, with a probability of 74.4% and Under 3.5, with a probability of 73.7%.
In a shocking turn of events, CSM Reșița pulled off a 2-1 upset over ASA Targu Mures, extending their winning run to three games. This result defied the pre-match favourite, ASA Targu Mures, whose predicted win probability stood at 39%. The model's selection, an away win, was incorrect, as the home team secured the victory. The model's call on the final score, 1-1, was also off the mark. Meanwhile, the model correctly identified that the game would go over 1.5 goals, with a predicted probability of 74.4%, and that the score would be under 3.5 goals, with a predicted probability of 73.7%.
CSM Reşiţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.33 | 1.67 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.17 | 1.39 | 1.18 | 1.27 | 1.17 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 2.50 | 0.83 | 3.67 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
ASA Targu Mures| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.89 | 1.04 | 2.20 | 0.80 | 1.54 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.44 | 1.06 | 1.82 | 0.82 | 0.86 | 1.43 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 2.70 | 1.00 | 3.25 | 0.75 | 2.33 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheet % | 46% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| ASA Targu Mures goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 7.9% | 14% | 8.5% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
CSM Reşiţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 0.53 | 1.07 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.74 | 0.48 | 0.91 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.50 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
ASA Targu Mures| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.82 | 0.39 | 0.93 | 0.27 | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.91 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.10 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 68% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
CSM Reşiţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.47 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.43 | 0.91 | 0.27 | 0.64 | 0.58 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.00 | 0.17 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
ASA Targu Mures| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.07 | 0.64 | 1.27 | 0.53 | 0.85 | 0.77 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.91 | 0.55 | 0.57 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.60 | 0.50 | 2.25 | 0.50 | 1.17 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 54% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 74.4% | 1.33 | 1.37 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.34 | 1.33 | +4.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 73.7% | 1.23 | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.24 | 1.23 | -0.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/25 | A | 0-2 |
CSM Reşiţa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 28/02/26 | A | 5-0 |
ASA Targu Mures| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 6-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 09/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Slatina | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 2 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | - |
| 3 | CSM Reşiţa | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 4 | Concordia | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 5 | Popești-Leordeni | 4 | 8 | 50% | 2.0 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 3.5 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | FC Bacau | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Metalul Buzău | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.8 | 50% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | Chindia Targoviste | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.8 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | Gloria Bistriţa | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 3.0 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | - |
| 11 | Ştefăneşti | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 12 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 4 | 5 | 25% | 1.2 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 2.5 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 13 | Metaloglobus | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 4 | 4 | +0 | 2.7 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 14 | ASA Targu Mures | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 2.0 | 75% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 15 | CS Afumati | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 100% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Dumbrăviţa | 4 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2.2 | 75% | 25% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 17 | Bihor Oradea | 4 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1.5 | 75% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.0 | - |
| 18 | CS Dinamo București | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.8 | 100% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1.5 | 75% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 21 | Unirea Slobozia | 3 | 1 | 0% | 0.3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 22 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 23 | AFC Hermannstadt | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |