CSM Reșița are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory, with a 43% chance of triumph, a 28% chance of a draw and a 29% chance of Cetatea Suceava taking the win. The expected total is 2.7 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single score that the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.3% chance. Home form shows CSM Reșița scoring 1.43 and conceding 1.36 goals against similar opposition, while Cetatea Suceava, playing away, averages 2.0 goals scored and has not conceded against similar teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (98.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Under 5.5 (94.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (87.9%), Home +2 handicap (87.4%) and Under 4.5 (86.4%). The match is poised for a tight contest with a high likelihood of a low-scoring draw.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSM Reşiţa win
42.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava win
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSM Reşiţa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.40
1.50
1.19
1.29
1.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.42
1.46
1.43
1.36
1.40
1.60
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
1.17
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Cetatea Suceava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cetatea Suceava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.33
1.33
1.33
1.00
1.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (2)
1.50
1.50
1.00
3.00
2.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.3%
Under 1.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.5%
Under 2.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.5%
Under 3.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.9%
0-0
8.0%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
0-1
6.9%
2-2
5.4%
CSM Reşiţa goals ↓
Cetatea Suceava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
6.9%
4.9%
1.9%
0.6%
1
8.9%
13%
7.3%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.5%
9.1%
5.4%
2.2%
0.7%
3
3.8%
4.5%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSM Reşiţa goals (down), columns = Cetatea Suceava goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.60
Slatina
2.60
Concordia
2.40
CSM Reşiţa
2.40
Popești-Leordeni
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.80
FC Bacau
1.60
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.60
Metalul Buzău
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
CS Afumati
1.40
Ştefăneşti
1.20
Bihor Oradea
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
ASA Targu Mures
0.80
CS Dinamo București
0.60
Dumbrăviţa
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.40
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.20
Unirea Slobozia
0.20
CSM Reşiţa is 1.00 points better than Cetatea Suceava in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Concordia
2.20
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.20
Popești-Leordeni
2.00
Chindia Targoviste
2.00
FC Bacau
2.00
Slatina
2.00
CSM Reşiţa
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Bihor Oradea
1.20
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.20
CS Afumati
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.00
Metalul Buzău
1.00
CS Dinamo București
0.80
Dumbrăviţa
0.80
Ştefăneşti
0.80
ASA Targu Mures
0.60
Unirea Slobozia
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.20
CSM Reşiţa is 0.40 goals better than Cetatea Suceava in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.40
Slatina
0.40
Gloria Bistriţa
0.80
Bihor Oradea
0.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.00
FC Bacau
1.00
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.00
Popești-Leordeni
1.20
Dumbrăviţa
1.20
CSM Reşiţa
1.20
Metalul Buzău
1.20
CSM Satu Mare
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Concordia
1.60
ASA Targu Mures
1.60
Metaloglobus
1.60
Unirea Slobozia
1.80
CS Afumati
1.80
CS Dinamo București
2.00
Ştefăneşti
2.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2.20
CSM Reşiţa is 0.20 goals better than Cetatea Suceava in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
CSM Reşiţa or Draw
70.7%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers CSM Reşiţa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa or Cetatea Suceava
72.1%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers CSM Reşiţa + Cetatea Suceava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cetatea Suceava
57.2%
Avg Implied -
43%
28%
29%
covers Draw + Cetatea Suceava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 0.5
Over
77.6%
Under
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 1.5
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 2.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 0.5
Over
69.9%
Under
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 1.5
Over
33.8%
Under
66.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 2.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to CSM Reşiţa, so a minus line means CSM Reşiţa give that many goals of a start and Cetatea Suceava receive them. At -1, CSM Reşiţa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal CSM Reşiţa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (CSM Reşiţa)
CSM Reşiţa -2
8.5%
Draw -2
13.2%
Cetatea Suceava +2
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (CSM Reşiţa)
CSM Reşiţa -1
21.7%
Draw -1
21.1%
Cetatea Suceava +1
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (CSM Reşiţa)
CSM Reşiţa +1
70.7%
Draw +1
16.7%
Cetatea Suceava -1
12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (CSM Reşiţa)
CSM Reşiţa +2
87.4%
Draw +2
8.5%
Cetatea Suceava -2
4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSM Reşiţa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.57
0.94
0.62
0.71
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.58
1.00
0.71
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Cetatea Suceava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cetatea Suceava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSM Reşiţa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.56
0.56
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.58
0.88
0.43
0.64
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.67
1.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cetatea Suceava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cetatea Suceava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cetatea Suceava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Romania: Liga II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →