CSM Reșița are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with the model picking a home win and a 49 % chance of victory, a 26 % chance of a draw and a 25 % chance of FC Bacău winning. The average total goals is 2.9, but the most likely total is two goals, a 24 % probability, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 with a 12.2 % chance. In recent form, Reșița have won three of their last five matches after two straight defeats, scoring an average of 1.31 goals and conceding 1.38 against opponents of similar strength. Bacău, after a draw, have won three of five away games, scoring 1.33 and conceding 1.67 to similar teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.0 %), Under 6.5 (97.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.8 %), Under 5.5 (92.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (90.3 %), Home +2 handicap (89.5 %), Away under 2.5 goals (88.3 %) and Under 4.5 (83.0 %).
CSM Reşiţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.19 | 1.29 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.42 | 1.46 | 1.43 | 1.36 | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.33 | 1.17 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.20 | 1.67 | 0.93 | 1.33 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.45 | 1.09 | 1.67 | 0.75 | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 2.00 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| FC Bacau goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 12% | 6.4% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.2% | 9.7% | 5.7% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 4.8% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
CSM Reşiţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.94 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.83 | 0.58 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.83 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.63 | 0.93 | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.77 | 0.55 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
CSM Reşiţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.83 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 1.14 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.58 | 0.88 | 0.43 | 0.64 | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.50 | 0.67 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
FC Bacau| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.57 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.73 | 0.53 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.68 | 0.55 | 0.67 | 0.58 | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 98.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 98.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 97.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 96.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 96.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 96.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 94.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 92.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 90.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 89.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 89.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 88.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 87.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 86.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 84.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 82.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 82.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 81.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 80.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 80.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 80.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 75.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +1 handicap | 75.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 74.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 72.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 71.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 13/09/25 | A | 0-0 |
CSM Reşiţa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 18/08/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 12/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-0 |
FC Bacau| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 31/08/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 19/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 16/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 12/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | - |
| 2 | Slatina | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | Concordia | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 4 | CSM Reşiţa | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Chindia Targoviste | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 5 | 9 | 40% | 1.8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 3.2 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Gloria Bistriţa | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | FC Bacau | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Metaloglobus | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Metalul Buzău | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 13 | CS Afumati | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Bihor Oradea | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.0 | 80% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Ştefăneşti | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | ASA Targu Mures | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Dumbrăviţa | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 19 | CS Dinamo București | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1.4 | 60% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 21 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Unirea Slobozia | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | AFC Hermannstadt | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |