This highly anticipated match between CSM Satu Mare and Bihor Oradea is poised to be a closely contested affair. The recent form of both teams suggests a fragile state, with CSM Satu Mare coming off a defeat and Bihor Oradea also struggling, having lost their last two matches. This finely balanced encounter is reflected in the probabilities, with the model predicting a 39% chance of Bihor Oradea winning, 26% chance of a draw, and 35% chance of CSM Satu Mare emerging victorious.
The model's selection is an away win for Bihor Oradea. With an expected total of 3.0 goals, this match is likely to be an open and attacking affair. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, which holds a 12.2% probability.
CSM Satu Mare's home form has seen them score an average of 1.25 goals and concede 2.5 goals per match against stronger opponents. Conversely, Bihor Oradea's away form has seen them score 1 goal and concede 2 goals per match against weaker opponents.
The model's selection for this match is the Over 1.5 goals, which holds an 81.5% probability. Other selections include the home win (35%), the draw (26%), the away win (39%), and the Over 1.5 goals (81.5%).
The pre-match favourite, Bihor Oradea, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-0, a draw that surprised the model’s prediction of an away win with a 39 % probability. The game saw both sides come off recent draws, with CSM Satu Mare’s last five games ending DLLLD and Bihor Oradea’s ending DWDWL, underscoring the evenly matched encounter. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 goals hit at 98.8 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0 %, Under 6.5 at 96.5 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.8 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.4 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 95.0 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 93.9 %, and Away under 3.5 goals at 92.7 %. All eight picks were correct, confirming the model’s overall low-scoring expectation.
CSM Satu Mare| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.90 | 1.36 | 2.00 | 0.94 | 1.81 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.72 | 2.11 | 0.50 | 2.50 | 0.83 | 1.92 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.75 | 1.58 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-18pp vs league) | |||||
Bihor Oradea| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 1.40 | 1.81 | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.48 | 1.44 | 1.69 | 1.23 | 1.25 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 5.00 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
| Bihor Oradea goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.1% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 6.0% | 12% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 5.2% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
CSM Satu Mare| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.30 | 0.87 | 0.36 | 1.07 | 0.25 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.22 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 1.50 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.42 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Bihor Oradea| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.57 | 1.06 | 0.56 | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.80 | 0.52 | 1.00 | 0.54 | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
CSM Satu Mare| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.03 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.69 | 1.12 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.50 | 1.11 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.58 | 1.17 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.33 | 0.92 | 1.50 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Bihor Oradea| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.83 | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.68 | 0.92 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 98.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 98.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 6.5 | 96.5% | 1.02 | 1.02 | - | - | - | - | +2.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 95.8% | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.01 | - | - | - | +3.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 95.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 95.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 93.9% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -1.0% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 92.7% | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | +5.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 | 91.4% | 1.03 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 1.03 | 1.01 | - | +0.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 87.3% | 1.04 | 1.05 | 1.04 | 1.02 | - | - | -1.9% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 87.0% | 1.08 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.08 | 1.07 | +1.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 86.6% | 1.16 | 1.17 | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | - | +7.1% | ✓ Hit |
| Away +2 handicap | 83.1% | 1.04 | 1.04 | - | - | - | - | -4.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 82.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 81.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 81.8% | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.07 | 1.05 | 1.04 | - | -6.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 81.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 81.5% | 1.25 | 1.30 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.25 | +7.8% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 4.5 | 81.2% | 1.10 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 1.10 | 1.09 | 1.08 | -2.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Home +2 handicap | 80.3% | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.32 | 1.30 | - | +13.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 79.5% | 1.26 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +6.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 79.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 78.9% | 1.16 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.15 | 1.14 | -1.1% | ✗ Miss |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 76.9% | 1.51 | 1.56 | 1.55 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | +15.5% | ✗ Miss |
| Home or Away | 73.6% | 1.24 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.27 | 1.26 | 1.23 | -0.6% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 73.6% | 1.35 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.35 | +5.1% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/25 | H | 1-4 |
CSM Satu Mare| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 12/08/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 05/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 3-2 |
Bihor Oradea| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 12/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 05/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 30/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 3-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | - |
| 2 | Slatina | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | Concordia | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 4 | CSM Reşiţa | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Chindia Targoviste | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 5 | 9 | 40% | 1.8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 3.2 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Gloria Bistriţa | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | FC Bacau | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Metaloglobus | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Metalul Buzău | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 13 | CS Afumati | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Bihor Oradea | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.0 | 80% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Ştefăneşti | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | ASA Targu Mures | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Dumbrăviţa | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 19 | CS Dinamo București | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1.4 | 60% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 21 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Unirea Slobozia | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | AFC Hermannstadt | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |