The contest between CSM Satu Mare and CS Afumati is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home advantage is modest: CSM Satu Mare averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.29 conceded against similar opponents, while CS Afumati, on the road, averages 1.64 scored and 1.09 conceded. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a modestly active match, yet the most likely total is two goals, with a 25 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying a 12.8 % probability.
Home win probability sits at 33 %, draw at 27 %, and away win at 40 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1 %), Under 6.5 (97.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (95.1 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.4 %), Under 5.5 (92.9 %), Away +2 handicap (84.6 %), Home under 2.5 goals (84.3 %), and Under 4.5 (83.8 %). Each pick is presented with its exact percentage, reflecting the model’s confidence in these outcomes.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
CSM Satu Mare win
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati win
39.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
CSM Satu Mare
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.70
1.31
1.62
0.88
1.76
vs Stronger (19)
0.68
1.89
0.50
2.00
0.77
1.85
vs Similar (11)
1.73
1.36
2.00
1.29
1.25
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (CS Afumati) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CS Afumati
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.30
1.06
1.31
1.71
1.29
vs Stronger (7)
1.71
1.43
1.50
1.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.26
1.26
0.92
1.42
1.64
1.09
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Satu Mare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.1%
Under 1.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.5%
Under 2.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.2%
Under 3.5
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.9%
No
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%
1-2
8.8%
2-1
7.9%
0-1
7.4%
0-0
6.9%
1-0
6.6%
0-2
6.5%
2-2
6.0%
CSM Satu Mare goals ↓
CS Afumati goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.9%
7.4%
6.5%
3.2%
1.2%
1
6.6%
13%
8.8%
4.4%
1.6%
2
5.3%
7.9%
6.0%
3.0%
1.1%
3
2.4%
3.6%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.2%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = CSM Satu Mare goals (down), columns = CS Afumati goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.60
Slatina
2.60
Concordia
2.40
CSM Reşiţa
2.40
Popești-Leordeni
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.80
FC Bacau
1.60
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.60
Metalul Buzău
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
CS Afumati
1.40
Ştefăneşti
1.20
Bihor Oradea
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
ASA Targu Mures
0.80
CS Dinamo București
0.60
Dumbrăviţa
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.40
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
0.20
Unirea Slobozia
0.20
CSM Satu Mare is 1.00 points worse than CS Afumati in terms of average points per game (0.40 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Concordia
2.20
FC Politehnica Timisoara
2.20
Popești-Leordeni
2.00
Chindia Targoviste
2.00
FC Bacau
2.00
Slatina
2.00
CSM Reşiţa
1.80
Gloria Bistriţa
1.40
Metaloglobus
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Bihor Oradea
1.20
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.20
CS Afumati
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.00
Metalul Buzău
1.00
CS Dinamo București
0.80
Dumbrăviţa
0.80
Ştefăneşti
0.80
ASA Targu Mures
0.60
Unirea Slobozia
0.60
CSM Satu Mare
0.20
CSM Satu Mare is 1.00 goals worse than CS Afumati in terms of goals scored per game (0.20 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Politehnica Timisoara
0.40
Slatina
0.40
Gloria Bistriţa
0.80
Bihor Oradea
0.80
Chindia Targoviste
1.00
FC Bacau
1.00
CSM Ramnicu Valcea
1.00
Popești-Leordeni
1.20
Dumbrăviţa
1.20
CSM Reşiţa
1.20
Metalul Buzău
1.20
CSM Satu Mare
1.20
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.40
Cetatea Suceava
1.40
Concordia
1.60
ASA Targu Mures
1.60
Metaloglobus
1.60
Unirea Slobozia
1.80
CS Afumati
1.80
CS Dinamo București
2.00
Ştefăneşti
2.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
2.20
CSM Satu Mare is 0.60 goals better than CS Afumati in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
CSM Satu Mare or Draw
60.4%
Avg Implied -
33%
27%
40%
covers CSM Satu Mare + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSM Satu Mare or CS Afumati
72.8%
Avg Implied -
33%
27%
40%
covers CSM Satu Mare + CS Afumati
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or CS Afumati
66.8%
Avg Implied -
33%
27%
40%
covers Draw + CS Afumati
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
CSM Satu Mare over/under 0.5
Over
74.3%
Under
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Satu Mare over/under 1.5
Over
39.4%
Under
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Satu Mare over/under 2.5
Over
15.7%
Under
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Satu Mare over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 0.5
Over
77.7%
Under
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 1.5
Over
44.3%
Under
55.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 2.5
Over
19.2%
Under
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 3.5
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to CSM Satu Mare, so a minus line means CSM Satu Mare give that many goals of a start and CS Afumati receive them. At -1, CSM Satu Mare must win by two or more to land; a one-goal CSM Satu Mare win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (CSM Satu Mare)
CSM Satu Mare -2
5.5%
Draw -2
9.9%
CS Afumati +2
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (CSM Satu Mare)
CSM Satu Mare -1
15.4%
Draw -1
17.8%
CS Afumati +1
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (CSM Satu Mare)
CSM Satu Mare +1
60.4%
Draw +1
19.7%
CS Afumati -1
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (CSM Satu Mare)
CSM Satu Mare +2
80.2%
Draw +2
12.1%
CS Afumati -2
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
CSM Satu Mare
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.77
0.31
0.92
0.24
0.65
vs Stronger (19)
0.21
0.89
0.17
1.33
0.23
0.69
vs Similar (11)
0.36
0.55
0.43
0.57
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (CS Afumati) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CS Afumati
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.38
0.50
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.43
0.25
0.25
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.61
0.42
0.58
0.55
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Satu Mare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
CSM Satu Mare over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Satu Mare over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Satu Mare over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
CSM Satu Mare
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.93
1.00
0.69
0.65
1.12
vs Stronger (19)
0.47
1.00
0.33
0.67
0.54
1.15
vs Similar (11)
1.36
0.82
1.57
0.71
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (CS Afumati) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
CS Afumati
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
0.69
0.81
1.07
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.00
1.25
0.75
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.65
0.50
0.83
1.09
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Satu Mare) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
CSM Satu Mare over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Satu Mare over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Satu Mare over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CS Afumati over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (37)
€11m
CON (26)
€5m
BO (23)
€4m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
ATM (22)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
MB (19)
€3m
FB (23)
€2m
VŞ (19)
€2m
GB (20)
€2m
CSM (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
US (13)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
CA (14)
€1m
CDB (14)
€1m
ŞTE (8)
€1m
CRV (10)
€1m
POP (9)
€1m
CSM Satu Mare and CS Afumati have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (13)
€5m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
ATM (7)
€1m
MB (6)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
GB (8)
€1m
FB (8)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
CRV (5)
€1m
CA (6)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
CSM (7)
€0m
CDB (3)
€0m
POP (3)
€0m
DUM (3)
€0m
ŞTE (2)
€0m
CSM Satu Mare and CS Afumati have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (9)
€2m
CON (6)
€1m
BO (6)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
FB (6)
€1m
ATM (4)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
GB (5)
€0m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
MB (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
ŞTE (3)
€0m
CSM (4)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
CDB (4)
€0m
CRV (1)
€0m
CSM Satu Mare and CS Afumati have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AH (15)
€5m
BO (11)
€2m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
ATM (11)
€1m
MB (9)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
CSM (8)
€1m
FB (9)
€1m
CDB (7)
€1m
ŞTE (3)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
GB (7)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
CRV (4)
€0m
CA (4)
€0m
POP (2)
€0m
CSM Satu Mare and CS Afumati have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Romania: Liga II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →