CSM Satu Mare have been unbeaten in their last five matches, including a 1-1 draw against Dumbrăvița. However, their home form against stronger opponents has been less convincing, scoring an average of 1.33 goals while conceding 2.33. CSM Reșița, on the other hand, have been coming off a win, but their away form against weaker opponents has seen them score an average of 1.2 goals while conceding 1.4.
The model predicts a home win, with a 42% chance of CSM Satu Mare emerging victorious. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, where the edge exists due to the expected total of 3.1 goals. The model's selection for Over 1.5 goals has an 82.9% probability and an 11% edge. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 23% chance. The expected total goals is 3.1, and the most likely total goals is 2. The home win percentage is 42%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 33%. The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals (82.9%), and CSM Satu Mare to win (42%).
The away team, CSM Reșița, pulled off a stunning upset, defeating the home team, CSM Satu Mare, 0-2. This win extends their run of consecutive victories to three games. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 42%. The model's call was wrong, as the away team secured the win. Meanwhile, the model suggested Over 1.5, which hit with an 82.9% probability, giving the model an edge of 11%.
CSM Satu Mare| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.93 | 1.43 | 2.14 | 1.06 | 1.75 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.89 | 2.17 | 0.67 | 2.83 | 1.00 | 1.83 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.75 | 1.58 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-18pp vs league) | |||||
CSM Reşiţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.37 | 1.69 | 1.19 | 1.14 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.17 | 1.50 | 1.23 | 1.38 | 1.09 | 1.64 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 2.50 | 0.83 | 3.67 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| CSM Reşiţa goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 12% | 7.8% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 6.1% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
CSM Satu Mare| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.31 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.28 | 0.94 | 0.17 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.42 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
CSM Reşiţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.57 | 1.12 | 0.62 | 0.71 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.79 | 0.54 | 1.00 | 0.69 | 0.55 | 0.36 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.50 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
CSM Satu Mare| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.90 | 1.10 | 1.07 | 1.14 | 0.75 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 0.61 | 1.22 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.67 | 1.08 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.33 | 0.92 | 1.50 | 0.88 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
CSM Reşiţa| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.43 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.38 | 0.96 | 0.23 | 0.69 | 0.55 | 1.27 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.00 | 0.17 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82.9% | 1.28 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 1.27 | +10.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 02/08/25 | A | 2-1 |
CSM Satu Mare| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 4-2 |
CSM Reşiţa| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 10/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | FC Politehnica Timisoara | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 2.6 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | - |
| 2 | Slatina | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | - |
| 3 | Concordia | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 4 | CSM Reşiţa | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 3.0 | 100% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Chindia Targoviste | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Popești-Leordeni | 5 | 9 | 40% | 1.8 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 3.2 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 7 | Gloria Bistriţa | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 8 | FC Bacau | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | CSM Ramnicu Valcea | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Cetatea Suceava | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 100% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Metaloglobus | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3.0 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.4 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Metalul Buzău | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 13 | CS Afumati | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3.0 | 100% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Bihor Oradea | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 2.0 | 80% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Ştefăneşti | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Viitorul Şelimbăr | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 17 | ASA Targu Mures | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2.2 | 80% | 40% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Dumbrăviţa | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 19 | CS Dinamo București | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | CSM Satu Mare | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 1.4 | 60% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 1.2 | - |
| 21 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 22 | Unirea Slobozia | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 2.4 | 80% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | AFC Hermannstadt | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | - | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - |