Petrocub, the clear favourite, is rated highly due to their impressive away form against weaker opponents, having scored an average of 2.6 goals and conceded only 0.4 goals in such situations. They are on a two-game winning run and have a strong recent form, particularly away from home.
The model predicts an away win, with Petrocub's away strength and Dacia-Buiucani's home weakness likely to play a significant role in this match. The expected total number of goals is 3.2, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely score is 0-2, with a probability of 12%.
Dacia-Buiucani has struggled at home, scoring an average of 0.8 goals and conceding 2.3 goals against stronger opponents. Petrocub's away scoring and conceding are significantly better, with an average of 2.6 goals scored and 0.4 goals conceded against weaker opponents.
The model's selections are Over 1.5 with a probability of 83.3% and Away win with a probability of 72.5%. The home win percentage is 10%, the draw percentage is 18%, and the away win percentage is 72%.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Dacia-Buiucani defeated Petrocub 2-1 at home, extending their winning streak after coming off a victory over Petrocub just a few days ago. The win marks a surprising turn of events, as Petrocub were the pre-match favourite with a 73% chance of winning. However, the model's selection, Petrocub's away win, was incorrect. The model's other selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit, with an 83.5% probability. The model's call on the away win was wrong, as Petrocub's away form suggested they were coming off a defeat and had a weaker opponent strength.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dacia-Buiucani win✓ Hit
9.2%
Avg Implied 14.8% · @ 6.06
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.79
Marathonbet
6.50
Dafabet
6.20
10Bet
6.20
Betfair
6.00
Draw✗ Miss
17.7%
Avg Implied 23.0% · @ 3.89
Edge
-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Betano
3.85
Pinnacle
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Petrocub win✗ Miss
73.1%
Avg Implied 62.2% · @ 1.44
Edge
+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
Dafabet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
1xBet
1.44
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dacia-Buiucani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.93
1.07
2.33
0.87
1.53
vs Stronger (19)
0.63
2.16
0.56
2.56
0.70
1.80
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.55
1.83
2.00
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrocub
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
0.63
2.64
0.64
1.88
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.81
0.88
2.71
0.86
1.11
0.89
vs Weaker (14)
2.71
0.36
2.57
0.43
2.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.5%
@ 1.24+10.5%
Under 1.5
16.5%
@ 3.36-10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Under
888Sport
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
1xBet
3.34
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.8%
@ 1.82+11.1%
Under 2.5
38.2%
@ 1.87-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
888Sport
1.85
Bet365
1.85
Under
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.91
10Bet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
39.5%
@ 3.06+9.8%
Under 3.5
60.5%
@ 1.29-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
3.04
Under
888Sport
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.6%
@ 1.97+3.2%
No
50.4%
@ 1.71-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
No
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.69
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
12.1%@ 6.19+5.4%
0-3
9.8%@ 9.25+5.3%
1-2
9.3%@ 7.62+3.9%
0-1
9.2%@ 6.12+2.5%
1-1
8.4%@ 7.25+2.8%
1-3
7.5%@ 11.75+4.0%
0-4
5.9%@ 16.00+3.3%
0-0
4.9%@ 9.88+0.7%
Dacia-Buiucani goals ↓
Petrocub goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
9.2%
12%
9.8%
5.9%
1
2.4%
8.4%
9.3%
7.5%
4.5%
2
1.2%
2.9%
3.6%
2.9%
1.7%
3
0.3%
0.8%
0.9%
0.7%
0.4%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dacia-Buiucani goals (down), columns = Petrocub goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Dacia-Buiucani and Petrocub are level in average points per game (both 1.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Dacia-Buiucani is 0.67 goals worse than Petrocub in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 1.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Dacia-Buiucani is 0.33 goals worse than Petrocub in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dacia-Buiucani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.53
0.93
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (19)
0.26
1.00
0.22
1.22
0.30
0.80
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.45
1.00
0.50
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrocub
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.23
1.21
0.21
1.06
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.44
1.14
0.43
0.33
0.44
vs Weaker (14)
1.64
0.00
1.29
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
83% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dacia-Buiucani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.53
1.40
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (19)
0.37
1.16
0.33
1.33
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.91
1.09
0.83
1.50
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrocub) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrocub
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.40
1.43
0.43
0.81
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.44
1.57
0.43
0.78
0.44
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.36
1.29
0.43
0.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrocub over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.5%
1.24
888Sport
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
-
-
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Away win
73.1%
1.44
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.47
Dafabet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
1xBet
1.44
+10.9%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Petrocub · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Victor Mudrac20%
Teodor Lungu20%
Ion Borș20%
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Teodor Lungu60%
Ion Jardan50%
Dumitru Demian33%
Dan Pușcaș20%
Ion Borș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dan Pușcaș20%
Vladimir Ambros17%
Ion Jardan0%
Sergiu Plătică0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sergiu Plătică17%
Ion Jardan0%
Vladimir Ambros0%
Maxim Potirniche0%
Vasile Jardan0%
Vsevolod Nihaev0%
Marin Caruntu0%
Victor Mudrac0%
Donalio Melachio Douanla0%
Teodor Lungu0%
Silviu Șmalenea0%
Dan Pușcaș0%
Dumitru Demian0%
Ion Borș0%
Boubacar Diallo0%
Mihai Lupan0%
Manuel Nana Agyemang0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Dacia-Buiucani's squad is €4m less valuable than Petrocub's (€2m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Dacia-Buiucani's attack is €2m less valuable than Petrocub's (€0m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Dacia-Buiucani and Petrocub have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Dacia-Buiucani's defence is €1m less valuable than Petrocub's (€1m vs €2m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zimbru
Sheriff Tiraspol
Politehnica UTM
Milsami Orhei
Sireți
CSF Bălți