The model favours an away win, with a 42% chance for Sirești, 31% for Dacia-Buiucani and 27% for a draw. The expected total is 2.9 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% chance. Dacia-Buiucani, playing at home against a similarly-rated side, averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Sirești, on the road, averages 2.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded against similar opposition. The only suggested pick is Over 1.5, with a 79.9% probability. The recent form narrative starts with Dacia-Buiucani drawing their last match 0-0 against Milsami Orhei after a shaky run of results, while Sirești remains unbeaten in their last five, also ending 0-0 against Politehnica UTM. This context supports the model’s preference for an Sirești victory.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Dacia-Buiucani snatched a 3-0 win, overturning the pre-match favourite, the away side, which had a 42% chance of triumph. The model’s pick of an away win was wrong, and the final score of 3-0 gave a home win, contrary to expectations. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.9% probability, hit, as the match produced three goals. Dacia-Buiucani, coming off a draw, extended their recent run, while Sireşti, unbeaten in their last five, failed to convert that form. The model’s prediction of a 2-goal total was also missed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dacia-Buiucani win✓ Hit
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sireți win✗ Miss
41.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dacia-Buiucani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.93
0.87
2.20
0.80
1.67
vs Stronger (20)
0.65
2.25
0.55
2.36
0.78
2.11
vs Similar (10)
1.20
1.30
1.75
1.75
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.64
1.21
3.00
1.00
2.23
1.46
vs Stronger (14)
2.29
1.21
2.71
0.71
1.86
1.71
vs Similar (11)
3.55
1.55
4.17
1.67
2.80
1.40
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
29% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.9%
Under 1.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.7%
Under 2.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.3%
Under 3.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.6%
No
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.6%
0-1
7.4%
0-2
6.8%
0-0
6.6%
1-0
6.1%
2-2
6.0%
Dacia-Buiucani goals ↓
Sireți goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
7.4%
6.8%
3.5%
1.4%
1
6.1%
13%
9.0%
4.7%
1.9%
2
4.9%
7.6%
6.0%
3.2%
1.2%
3
2.2%
3.4%
2.7%
1.4%
0.6%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dacia-Buiucani goals (down), columns = Sireți goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Dacia-Buiucani is 0.78 points better than Sireți in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 0.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Dacia-Buiucani is 0.56 goals better than Sireți in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Dacia-Buiucani is 0.22 goals worse than Sireți in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dacia-Buiucani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.70
0.33
0.60
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (20)
0.30
0.85
0.18
0.82
0.44
0.89
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.40
0.75
0.00
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.46
0.50
1.53
0.27
1.38
0.77
vs Stronger (14)
1.29
0.64
1.14
0.29
1.43
1.00
vs Similar (11)
2.00
0.45
2.50
0.33
1.40
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
64% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dacia-Buiucani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.23
0.53
1.60
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (20)
0.35
1.40
0.36
1.55
0.33
1.22
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.75
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.18
0.71
1.47
0.73
0.85
0.69
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
0.57
1.57
0.43
0.43
0.71
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.09
1.67
1.33
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
46% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Dacia-Buiucani and Sireți have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Dacia-Buiucani and Sireți have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Dacia-Buiucani and Sireți have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Dacia-Buiucani and Sireți have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zimbru
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Politehnica UTM
Milsami Orhei
CSF Bălți