The contest between Dacia-Buiucani and Sireţi is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 40% for a Dacia-Buiucani victory, 28% for a draw and 32% for a Sireţi win. On average the match should see 2.7 goals, with the most likely total of two goals occurring 25% of the time. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.3% chance.
Dacia-Buiucani, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Sireţi, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.43 conceded against comparable opponents. The team’s recent form shows Dacia-Buiucani coming off a draw, while Sireţi remains unbeaten in five games.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.0%), Under 5.5 (94.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (85.9%), Under 4.5 (85.6%) and Home +2 handicap (85.3%). Each selection is presented with its exact probability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dacia-Buiucani win
39.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sireți win
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dacia-Buiucani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.83
1.00
2.06
0.79
1.57
vs Stronger (20)
0.65
2.05
0.64
2.18
0.67
1.89
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.40
1.80
1.80
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.03
2.24
0.82
1.92
1.31
vs Stronger (13)
2.23
1.00
2.50
0.75
1.80
1.40
vs Similar (14)
2.21
1.29
2.43
1.14
2.00
1.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.1%
Under 1.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.7%
Under 2.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.6%
Under 3.5
70.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
8.8%
1-0
8.1%
1-2
7.8%
0-0
7.6%
0-1
7.1%
2-0
6.8%
2-2
5.7%
Dacia-Buiucani goals ↓
Sireți goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
7.1%
5.4%
2.3%
0.7%
1
8.1%
13%
7.8%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.8%
8.8%
5.7%
2.4%
0.8%
3
3.3%
4.2%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.2%
1.5%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dacia-Buiucani goals (down), columns = Sireți goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zimbru
2.11
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.00
Petrocub
1.56
Dacia-Buiucani
1.56
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.11
Sireți
0.78
CSF Bălți
0.22
Dacia-Buiucani is 0.78 points better than Sireți in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 0.78).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.56
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.11
Petrocub
1.89
Politehnica UTM
1.67
Dacia-Buiucani
1.22
Milsami Orhei
0.89
Sireți
0.67
CSF Bălți
0.56
Dacia-Buiucani is 0.56 goals better than Sireți in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 0.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89
Petrocub
1.00
Zimbru
1.11
Sireți
1.11
Politehnica UTM
1.33
Dacia-Buiucani
1.33
Milsami Orhei
1.56
CSF Bălți
3.22
Dacia-Buiucani is 0.22 goals worse than Sireți in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.11).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dacia-Buiucani or Draw
67.6%
Avg Implied -
40%
28%
32%
covers Dacia-Buiucani + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani or Sireți
72.1%
Avg Implied -
40%
28%
32%
covers Dacia-Buiucani + Sireți
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Sireți
60.3%
Avg Implied -
40%
28%
32%
covers Draw + Sireți
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5
Over
76.6%
Under
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5
Over
42.6%
Under
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 0.5
Over
72.6%
Under
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5
Over
37.1%
Under
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 3.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dacia-Buiucani, so a minus line means Dacia-Buiucani give that many goals of a start and Sireți receive them. At -1, Dacia-Buiucani must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dacia-Buiucani win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dacia-Buiucani)
Dacia-Buiucani -2
7.5%
Draw -2
12.1%
Sireți +2
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dacia-Buiucani)
Dacia-Buiucani -1
19.6%
Draw -1
20.1%
Sireți +1
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dacia-Buiucani)
Dacia-Buiucani +1
67.6%
Draw +1
17.8%
Sireți -1
14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dacia-Buiucani)
Dacia-Buiucani +2
85.3%
Draw +2
9.6%
Sireți -2
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dacia-Buiucani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.50
0.88
0.21
0.71
vs Stronger (20)
0.25
0.95
0.27
1.00
0.22
0.89
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
0.94
0.29
0.92
0.54
vs Stronger (13)
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.38
1.00
0.40
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.50
1.14
0.29
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dacia-Buiucani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.03
0.50
1.19
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (20)
0.40
1.10
0.36
1.18
0.44
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.80
0.90
0.80
1.20
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Sireți) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sireți
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.63
1.29
0.53
1.00
0.77
vs Stronger (13)
1.23
0.62
1.50
0.38
0.80
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.79
1.29
0.86
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sireți over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (24)
€6m
PET (22)
€5m
ZIM (24)
€4m
MO (22)
€3m
DAC (21)
€2m
PU (13)
€1m
SIR (7)
€1m
CB (5)
€1m
Dacia-Buiucani and Sireți have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (8)
€3m
PET (9)
€2m
ZIM (9)
€2m
MO (6)
€1m
DAC (5)
€0m
PU (2)
€0m
SIR (2)
€0m
CB (2)
€0m
Dacia-Buiucani and Sireți have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (6)
€1m
ZIM (7)
€1m
MO (5)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
SIR (5)
€1m
DAC (6)
€0m
PU (4)
€0m
CB (0)
€0m
Dacia-Buiucani and Sireți have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ST (10)
€3m
PET (8)
€2m
MO (11)
€2m
ZIM (8)
€1m
DAC (10)
€1m
CB (3)
€1m
PU (7)
€0m
SIR (0)
€0m
Dacia-Buiucani and Sireți have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Zimbru
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Politehnica UTM
Milsami Orhei
CSF Bălți