The recent form of Dacia-Buiucani has been concerning, with two straight defeats, including a 0-1 loss to Sheriff Tiraspol. Meanwhile, Zimbru is coming off a defeat as well, but their away form against similar opponents has been more promising, scoring 1.75 goals on average while conceding 1.08.
The model favours an away win for Zimbru, with a probability of 57%. The expected total number of goals is 3.3, and the most likely total is 3 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.4%.
Dacia-Buiucani's home form has been underwhelming, scoring 1.22 goals on average while conceding 2.33. Zimbru's away scoring and conceding statistics against similar opponents are 1.75 and 1.08, respectively.
The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goal line, with a probability of 84.6% and an edge of 8%. The model's other selections include a home win percentage of 20%, a draw percentage of 23%, and an away win percentage of 57%. The away team's win percentage is the highest among the model's selections, which also include the Over 1.5 goal line at 84.6% and a draw percentage of 23%.
Results analysis
The win extends Dacia-Buiucani's run of inconsistent form, but it was Zimbru's away form that ultimately told the story. The final score was 0-4 in favour of the visitors, resulting in an away win. The model correctly predicted this outcome, as Zimbru were the favourites with a pre-match probability of 57%. The model's selection of an away win proved correct. The model's pick of over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 84.6%, and the most likely total goals was 3, with a probability of 22%. The most likely scores included a 1-1 draw, a 1-2 away win, and a 0-2 away win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dacia-Buiucani win✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied 22.4% · @ 4.01
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.27
Dafabet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
10Bet
4.10
Pinnacle
4.02
Draw✗ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.52
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.80
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.60
1xBet
3.60
Pinnacle
3.55
Zimbru win✓ Hit
56.8%
Avg Implied 52.0% · @ 1.73
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.80
Dafabet
1.79
Betano
1.78
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dacia-Buiucani
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.90
1.07
2.20
0.93
1.60
vs Stronger (19)
0.68
2.11
0.56
2.33
0.80
1.90
vs Similar (11)
1.55
1.55
1.83
2.00
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.03
2.39
1.00
1.75
1.08
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.20
1.13
1.33
1.00
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (15)
3.07
0.93
3.44
1.00
2.50
0.83
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.6%
@ 1.19+8.2%
Under 1.5
15.4%
@ 3.86-8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.16
Under
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.82
1xBet
3.82
888Sport
3.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.3%
@ 1.67+8.4%
Under 2.5
36.7%
@ 2.04-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.73
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Bet365
1.70
Pinnacle
1.70
Under
Superbet
2.17
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.2%
@ 2.68+7.2%
Under 3.5
58.8%
@ 1.38-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.80
Pinnacle
2.75
1xBet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.70
Superbet
2.45
Under
Superbet
1.45
Pinnacle
1.37
Marathonbet
1.36
1xBet
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.8%
@ 1.63+5.5%
No
38.2%
@ 2.10-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Superbet
1.58
No
Superbet
2.25
1xBet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.01
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%@ 6.88+4.4%
1-2
9.8%@ 7.50+4.3%
0-2
8.2%@ 8.38+3.3%
0-1
7.0%@ 7.62+1.6%
1-3
6.8%@ 11.75+3.2%
2-2
5.8%@ 12.50+2.5%
0-3
5.7%@ 13.00+2.5%
2-1
5.6%@ 12.00+2.2%
Dacia-Buiucani goals ↓
Zimbru goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
7.0%
8.2%
5.7%
2.9%
1
3.6%
10%
9.8%
6.8%
3.5%
2
2.7%
5.6%
5.8%
4.0%
2.1%
3
1.1%
2.2%
2.3%
1.6%
0.8%
4
0.3%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dacia-Buiucani goals (down), columns = Zimbru goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.25
Zimbru
2.00
Dacia-Buiucani
1.62
Petrocub
1.38
Politehnica UTM
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.12
Sireți
0.75
CSF Bălți
0.25
Dacia-Buiucani is 0.38 points worse than Zimbru in terms of average points per game (1.62 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zimbru
2.62
Sheriff Tiraspol
2.25
Politehnica UTM
1.88
Petrocub
1.75
Dacia-Buiucani
1.38
Milsami Orhei
1.00
Sireți
0.75
CSF Bălți
0.62
Dacia-Buiucani is 1.25 goals worse than Zimbru in terms of goals scored per game (1.38 vs 2.62).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.75
Petrocub
1.12
Zimbru
1.12
Sireți
1.25
Politehnica UTM
1.50
Dacia-Buiucani
1.50
Milsami Orhei
1.75
CSF Bălți
3.25
Dacia-Buiucani is 0.38 goals worse than Zimbru in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dacia-Buiucani
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.70
0.53
0.73
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (19)
0.32
0.84
0.22
0.89
0.40
0.80
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.45
1.00
0.50
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.78
0.56
0.67
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.67
0.44
0.67
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (15)
0.93
0.27
1.11
0.44
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dacia-Buiucani
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.20
0.53
1.47
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (19)
0.37
1.26
0.33
1.44
0.40
1.10
vs Similar (11)
0.91
1.09
0.83
1.50
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Zimbru) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zimbru
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.57
1.61
0.44
1.08
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.47
0.89
0.33
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (15)
2.13
0.67
2.33
0.56
1.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Dacia-Buiucani) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dacia-Buiucani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zimbru over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.6%
1.19
888Sport
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.16
-
+8.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Moldova: Super Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Moldova: Super Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sheriff Tiraspol
Petrocub
Politehnica UTM
Milsami Orhei
Sireți
CSF Bălți