Dainava and Babrungas face off in Lithuania's 1 Lyga. The recent-form storyline is worth noting, as Babrungas are on a 3-game winning run, while Dainava comes off a draw. However, the model's selection is a Home win, with a probability of 37%.
The expected total goals stand at 2.3, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model's most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.6%.
Dainava's home form shows they score an average of 0.67 goals and concede 1.67 goals against stronger opponents. Babrungas' away form indicates they score 2.09 goals and concede 1.18 goals against weaker opponents.
The model's selection is Under 3.5 goals, with an 80.4% probability and an 8% edge. The suggested picks are: Under 3.5 (80.4%), and no other selections are provided. The probabilities for the match result are: Home win 37%, Draw 31%, Away win 32%.
Results analysis
Dainava's 2-1 win over Babrungas was a stunning upset, extending their recent run of form. The away side's victory was a surprise, as Babrungas were the pre-match favourite with a 41% chance of winning. However, the model's selection, an Away win, was incorrect. Meanwhile, the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 77.7%. The model's call on the most likely total goals, 2, was also incorrect, as the actual score was 2-1.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dainava win✓ Hit
31.7%
Avg Implied 32.6% · @ 2.74
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
3.20
Superbet
2.75
Dafabet
2.75
William Hil
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.09
Edge
-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
10Bet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Dafabet
3.10
Babrungas win✗ Miss
40.7%
Avg Implied 38.5% · @ 2.32
Edge
+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
2.40
Superbet
2.40
Dafabet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
Marathonbet
2.38
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dainava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.83
0.93
1.86
1.19
1.81
vs Stronger (18)
1.00
1.72
0.57
1.86
1.27
1.64
vs Similar (11)
1.00
2.09
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.20
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
3.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
1.10
2.62
1.38
2.35
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
3.00
0.50
4.00
0.00
2.67
0.67
vs Weaker (26)
2.38
1.19
2.50
1.50
2.29
0.93
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.7%
@ 1.29+7.5%
Under 1.5
22.3%
@ 3.04-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Under
Superbet
3.10
1xBet
3.08
Marathonbet
3.08
Unibet
2.88
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.5%
@ 1.92+5.0%
Under 2.5
47.5%
@ 1.73-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.04
Pinnacle
1.97
Bet365
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Under
Bet365
1.85
Superbet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.3%
@ 3.31+3.0%
Under 3.5
69.7%
@ 1.25-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.50
1xBet
3.28
Marathonbet
3.28
Superbet
3.20
Under
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Unibet
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.3%
@ 1.72+4.5%
No
42.7%
@ 1.91-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.82
Superbet
1.73
William Hil
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
No
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
1.96
William Hil
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Unibet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 5.85+6.0%
1-2
8.9%@ 8.54+4.0%
0-1
8.1%@ 7.14+2.3%
2-1 ✓
7.7%@ 9.20+3.2%
0-0
7.4%@ 8.79+2.7%
0-2
6.9%@ 10.19+2.8%
1-0
6.8%@ 8.01+1.7%
2-2
5.7%@ 12.43+2.4%
Dainava goals ↓
Babrungas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
8.1%
6.9%
3.4%
1.3%
1
6.8%
13%
8.9%
4.4%
1.6%
2
5.2%
7.7%
5.7%
2.8%
1.1%
3
2.2%
3.3%
2.5%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dainava goals (down), columns = Babrungas goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Dainava is 0.79 points worse than Babrungas in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Dainava is 0.55 goals worse than Babrungas in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Dainava is 0.40 goals worse than Babrungas in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 0.43).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dainava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.36
0.79
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (18)
0.39
0.56
0.29
0.86
0.45
0.36
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.73
0.17
0.67
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.50
1.46
0.69
1.06
0.35
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.50
0.25
2.00
0.00
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (26)
1.19
0.54
1.42
0.75
1.00
0.36
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dainava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dainava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.20
0.57
1.07
0.75
1.31
vs Stronger (18)
0.61
1.17
0.29
1.00
0.82
1.27
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.36
0.83
1.33
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Babrungas) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Babrungas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.60
1.15
0.69
1.29
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.50
0.25
2.00
0.00
1.33
0.33
vs Weaker (26)
1.19
0.65
1.08
0.75
1.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dainava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Babrungas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.7%
1.29
Unibet
1.33
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
-
+7.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava