Dainava is expected to secure a home win, with a 48% probability, as they face BFA in the Lithuania: 1 Lyga match. The recent form of both teams has been impressive, with Dainava coming off a win and BFA also having a win in their last outing. However, Dainava's recent form has been more consistent, with a 28% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of a BFA win.
The expected total goals for this match is 2.5, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.4%. Dainava has been scoring an average of 0.67 goals at home, while conceding 2.22 goals. BFA, on the other hand, has been scoring 1.33 goals away from home, while conceding 1.5 goals.
The model's most likely selections are Under 3.5 with a 75% probability and Over 1.5 with a 73.2% probability. Dainava has a 48% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 24% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The draw between Dainava and BFA extends Dainava's unbeaten run to six matches, having drawn their last two encounters. The final score was 0-0. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 50%. The model's call was wrong as Dainava failed to secure a win. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a 74.7% probability, while Over 1.5 goals missed, as the match saw no goals scored.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dainava win✗ Miss
49.9%
Avg Implied 45.5% · @ 1.96
Edge
+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.12
Betano
2.02
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Dafabet
1.99
Draw✓ Hit
27.7%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.34
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Betano
3.35
Dafabet
3.35
BFA win✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.22
Edge
-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.35
Pinnacle
3.35
Dafabet
3.30
William Hil
3.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dainava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.83
1.00
1.80
1.20
1.87
vs Stronger (18)
1.06
1.72
0.75
1.75
1.30
1.70
vs Similar (11)
1.00
2.09
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.20
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.27
1.82
1.12
1.69
1.46
vs Stronger (16)
1.75
1.31
1.67
1.11
1.86
1.57
vs Similar (7)
1.29
1.43
2.00
1.50
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (7)
2.29
1.00
2.00
0.75
2.67
1.33
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.5%
@ 1.19-2.5%
Under 1.5
26.5%
@ 3.77+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.21
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
1xBet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.85
Unibet
3.60
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.9%
@ 1.68-7.0%
Under 2.5
53.1%
@ 1.97+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.71
Unibet
1.71
Under
Bet365
2.08
Marathonbet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.3%
@ 2.73-7.9%
Under 3.5
74.7%
@ 1.36+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.75
1xBet
2.74
Marathonbet
2.74
Pinnacle
2.71
Under
Pinnacle
1.38
Unibet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.7%
@ 1.57-6.6%
No
49.3%
@ 2.11+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.62
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
BetVictor
1.47
No
1xBet
2.17
Unibet
2.16
William Hil
2.15
Marathonbet
2.13
BetVictor
1.93
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 6.38+6.6%
1-0
11.1%@ 8.08+5.8%
2-0
9.6%@ 9.50+5.2%
2-1
9.4%@ 7.83+4.0%
0-0 ✓
9.0%@ 10.92+5.1%
0-1
6.4%@ 10.58+2.5%
1-2
5.9%@ 10.33+1.8%
3-0
5.0%@ 15.50+2.3%
Dainava goals ↓
BFA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
6.4%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.9%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.6%
9.4%
4.6%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.0%
4.9%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.0%
1.9%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dainava goals (down), columns = BFA goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Dainava is 0.50 points worse than BFA in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Dainava is 0.98 goals worse than BFA in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 2.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Dainava is 0.17 goals better than BFA in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dainava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.47
0.80
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (18)
0.44
0.61
0.50
0.88
0.40
0.40
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.73
0.17
0.67
0.40
0.80
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.71
0.47
0.77
0.69
vs Stronger (16)
0.50
0.69
0.44
0.44
0.57
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.71
0.71
1.00
0.75
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.14
1.00
0.25
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dainava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dainava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.17
0.53
1.00
0.80
1.33
vs Stronger (18)
0.61
1.11
0.25
0.88
0.90
1.30
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.36
0.83
1.33
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (BFA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BFA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.70
1.12
0.65
0.92
0.77
vs Stronger (16)
1.25
0.62
1.22
0.67
1.29
0.57
vs Similar (7)
0.57
0.71
1.00
0.75
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.86
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dainava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BFA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.7%
1.36
Pinnacle
1.38
Unibet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
-
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.5%
1.19
Unibet
1.21
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
-2.5%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Dainava and BFA have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Dainava and BFA have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Dainava and BFA have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
Babrungas
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava