Dainava are tipped to win at home, a 61% chance that the match will finish in their favour. The game is expected to see about 2.6 goals, with the most likely total of two goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-0 for Dainava, a 12.2% probability. Dainava, playing against a weaker side, have averaged 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded at home, while Kauno Žalgiris II, on the road against a stronger opponent, average 1.38 scored and 2.15 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (95.4%), Home +2 handicap (95.3%), Under 5.5 (94.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (88.7%) and Under 4.5 (87.4%). Dainava’s recent form shows a loss in their last game, whereas Kauno Žalgiris II are on a two-game winning streak. The probabilities for a home win, draw and away win stand at 61%, 24% and 15% respectively.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dainava win
58.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II win
15.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dainava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.70
0.75
1.62
1.43
1.79
vs Stronger (15)
1.13
1.53
0.57
1.71
1.62
1.38
vs Similar (12)
0.92
2.17
0.67
2.00
1.17
2.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
2.00
1.62
1.94
1.57
2.07
vs Stronger (27)
1.48
2.04
1.57
1.93
1.38
2.15
vs Similar (3)
2.67
1.67
2.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.8%
Under 2.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.1%
Under 3.5
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.4%
No
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
12.2%
1-1
12.0%
2-0
11.8%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.6%
3-0
6.9%
3-1
5.7%
0-1
5.1%
Dainava goals ↓
Kauno Žalgiris II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
5.1%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
1
12%
12%
4.5%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.6%
3.9%
1.1%
0.2%
3
6.9%
5.7%
2.3%
0.6%
0.1%
4
3.1%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dainava goals (down), columns = Kauno Žalgiris II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Dainava and Kauno Žalgiris II are level in average points per game (both 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Dainava is 0.67 goals worse than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Dainava is 0.83 goals better than Kauno Žalgiris II in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dainava or Draw
84.1%
Avg Implied -
59%
25%
16%
covers Dainava + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dainava or Kauno Žalgiris II
74.8%
Avg Implied -
59%
25%
16%
covers Dainava + Kauno Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kauno Žalgiris II
41.1%
Avg Implied -
59%
25%
16%
covers Draw + Kauno Žalgiris II
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dainava over/under 0.5
Over
82.9%
Under
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5
Over
52.7%
Under
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5
Over
26.1%
Under
73.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 3.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5
Over
55.9%
Under
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 3.5
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dainava, so a minus line means Dainava give that many goals of a start and Kauno Žalgiris II receive them. At -1, Dainava must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dainava win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dainava)
Dainava -2
15.8%
Draw -2
18.6%
Kauno Žalgiris II +2
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dainava)
Dainava -1
34.4%
Draw -1
24.5%
Kauno Žalgiris II +1
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dainava)
Dainava +1
84.1%
Draw +1
10.7%
Kauno Žalgiris II -1
5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dainava)
Dainava +2
94.8%
Draw +2
4.0%
Kauno Žalgiris II -2
1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dainava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.67
0.43
1.00
0.50
0.38
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.58
0.17
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.31
1.19
1.21
0.71
vs Stronger (27)
0.70
0.93
0.36
1.14
1.08
0.69
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
0.00
1.50
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dainava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dainava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.07
0.31
0.88
0.93
1.29
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.87
0.14
0.71
1.12
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.58
0.50
1.50
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kauno Žalgiris II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kauno Žalgiris II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
1.31
0.75
0.36
1.36
vs Stronger (27)
0.78
1.11
1.21
0.79
0.31
1.46
vs Similar (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dainava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kauno Žalgiris II over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Dainava and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Dainava and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Dainava and Kauno Žalgiris II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava