Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, with Dainava’s home form showing a modest 0.67 goals conceded per match, while Minija’s away record reveals 0.75 conceded. The model favours an away win, with a 37 % chance, followed by a draw at 32 % and a home win at 30 %. The expected total goals sit at 2.1, centring on a 2-goal outcome that carries a 28 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.8 % chance.
Dainava averages 1.33 goals scored at home against similar opposition, whereas Minija averages 0.88 goals away. The suggested selections are: Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.4 %), Home under 3.5 goals (98.2 %), Under 5.5 (97.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.3 %), Under 4.5 (93.7 %), Home under 2.5 goals (92.2 %), and Away under 2.5 goals (89.6 %).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dainava win
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Minija win
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dainava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.70
0.75
1.62
1.43
1.79
vs Stronger (15)
1.13
1.53
0.57
1.71
1.62
1.38
vs Similar (12)
0.92
2.17
0.67
2.00
1.17
2.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minija
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
3.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.37
1.07
1.79
2.31
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.55
1.64
1.17
2.00
2.00
1.20
vs Similar (15)
1.87
1.20
1.14
1.71
2.50
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.25
0.00
1.00
2.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
61.8%
Under 1.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
33.4%
Under 2.5
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.0%
Under 3.5
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.7%
No
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
14.3%
0-1
13.5%
1-0
10.4%
0-2
8.5%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
6.0%
2-0
5.3%
Dainava goals ↓
Minija goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
14%
8.5%
3.2%
0.9%
1
10%
15%
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
2
5.3%
6.0%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
3
1.6%
1.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dainava goals (down), columns = Minija goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.71
Minija
2.40
Babrungas
2.29
BFA
2.00
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.86
Be1 NFA
1.50
Jonava
1.50
Dainava
1.50
Tauras
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.17
Hegelmann II
0.86
Atmosfera
0.83
Ekranas
0.57
Transinvest 2
0.57
Garliava
0.00
Dainava is 0.90 points worse than Minija in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
2.80
BFA
2.14
Žalgiris II
2.14
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.83
Babrungas
1.71
Be1 NFA
1.67
Transinvest 2
1.57
Tauras
1.50
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Atmosfera
1.33
Jonava
1.17
Dainava
1.17
Hegelmann II
1.14
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Ekranas
0.86
Garliava
0.17
Dainava is 1.63 goals worse than Minija in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 2.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.40
Babrungas
0.43
Dainava
0.83
Žalgiris II
0.86
Jonava
1.00
BFA
1.00
Tauras
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.43
Be1 NFA
1.50
Garliava
1.50
FA Šiauliai II
1.50
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.67
Atmosfera
1.83
Transinvest 2
2.29
Hegelmann II
2.57
Ekranas
3.00
Dainava is 0.43 goals worse than Minija in terms of goals conceded per game (0.83 vs 0.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dainava or Draw
60.1%
Avg Implied -
27%
33%
40%
covers Dainava + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dainava or Minija
67.2%
Avg Implied -
27%
33%
40%
covers Dainava + Minija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Minija
72.7%
Avg Implied -
27%
33%
40%
covers Draw + Minija
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dainava over/under 0.5
Over
59.3%
Under
40.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5
Over
22.7%
Under
77.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 0.5
Over
68.1%
Under
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dainava, so a minus line means Dainava give that many goals of a start and Minija receive them. At -1, Dainava must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dainava win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dainava)
Dainava -2
2.5%
Draw -2
7.3%
Minija +2
90.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dainava)
Dainava -1
9.8%
Draw -1
17.5%
Minija +1
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dainava)
Dainava +1
60.1%
Draw +1
22.5%
Minija -1
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dainava)
Dainava +2
82.7%
Draw +2
11.8%
Minija -2
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dainava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.67
0.43
1.00
0.50
0.38
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.58
0.17
0.50
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.67
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minija
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.36
0.71
1.12
0.44
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.55
0.50
0.50
0.80
0.60
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.67
0.29
1.00
1.38
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
68.2%
Under 0.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.5%
Under 1.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.3%
Under 2.5
87.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dainava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.0%
Under
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.5%
Under
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 HT
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dainava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.07
0.31
0.88
0.93
1.29
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
0.87
0.14
0.71
1.12
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
1.58
0.50
1.50
0.67
1.67
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Minija) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Minija
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.80
0.71
1.07
1.19
0.56
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.09
0.67
1.50
1.20
0.60
vs Similar (15)
1.00
0.53
0.86
0.71
1.12
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.8%
Under 0.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.7%
Under 1.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.9%
Under 2.5
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dainava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
49.8%
Under
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.9%
Under
79.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.6%
Under
93.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.7%
Under
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.1%
Under
82.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Minija over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (6)
€1m
HI (4)
€0m
MIN (3)
€0m
FŠI (4)
€0m
TAU (2)
€0m
T2 (3)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
BFA (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
Dainava and Minija have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TAU (1)
€0m
NK (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (2)
€0m
GAR (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
T2 (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Dainava and Minija have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FŠI (2)
€0m
DAI (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
ŽI (1)
€0m
BFA (1)
€0m
T2 (1)
€0m
HI (1)
€0m
EKR (1)
€0m
ATM (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
TAU (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
KŽI (0)
€0m
Dainava and Minija have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (3)
€0m
HI (2)
€0m
TAU (1)
€0m
MIN (1)
€0m
T2 (2)
€0m
FŠI (1)
€0m
KŽI (1)
€0m
GAR (0)
€0m
EKR (0)
€0m
NK (0)
€0m
ATM (0)
€0m
BFA (0)
€0m
DAI (0)
€0m
Dainava and Minija have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Žalgiris II
Babrungas
BFA
Neptūną Klaipėda
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Tauras
Jonava
FA Šiauliai II
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava