This Lithuania: 1 Lyga match between Dainava and Tauras on August 2nd is finely balanced, with recent form suggesting a compelling storyline. Dainava comes into this match off the back of a win, having beaten Babrungas 2-1, while Tauras is looking to bounce back from a defeat to Neptūnė Klaipėda, losing 0-2 away.
The model predicts an away win for Tauras, which is the most likely result, with a 39% chance of success. Dainava has a 34% chance of winning at home, while a draw is possible at 27%. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, which has a 12.6% probability.
At home, Dainava has averaged 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded against stronger opponents, while away, Tauras has averaged 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 goals conceded against weaker opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5, which has an 80.1% probability of success, with an edge of 3%. The model also suggests a Tauras win at 39%, a Dainava win at 34%, and a draw at 27%.
Results analysis
In a shocking turn of events, the home team Dainava's four-match unbeaten run came to an end as they drew 1-1 with Tauras, extending the away team's winless streak to five matches. The pre-match favourite, Tauras, was not able to come through, with the model's selection of a Tauras win being incorrect. The model's call was wrong, with a probability of 39% for a Tauras win. The model's selection of a Tauras win was the only selection offered. The model's selection of Over 1.5 hit, with a probability of 80.1%, as the final score was 1-1.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dainava win✗ Miss
34.2%
Avg Implied 37.1% · @ 2.41
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.51
Superbet
2.50
Dafabet
2.50
William Hil
2.50
Draw✓ Hit
26.9%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.29
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.60
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.40
Betano
3.35
Dafabet
3.30
Tauras win✗ Miss
38.9%
Avg Implied 35.8% · @ 2.50
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Dafabet
2.55
Betano
2.52
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dainava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.90
0.86
2.00
1.19
1.81
vs Stronger (29)
0.97
1.93
0.69
2.08
1.19
1.81
vs Similar (1)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.03
1.69
1.25
2.07
0.79
vs Stronger (9)
1.89
1.11
1.00
1.60
3.00
0.50
vs Similar (8)
1.75
1.12
1.33
1.67
2.00
0.80
vs Weaker (13)
1.92
0.92
2.25
0.88
1.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.1%
@ 1.18+3.0%
Under 1.5
19.9%
@ 3.97-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Under
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
3.85
Unibet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.85
Superbet
3.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.0%
@ 1.65+0.8%
Under 2.5
44.0%
@ 2.04-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.71
Bet365
1.70
1xBet
1.69
Marathonbet
1.69
Superbet
1.68
Under
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.10
Unibet
2.05
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.6%
@ 2.61-1.3%
Under 3.5
66.4%
@ 1.40+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.69
1xBet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.62
Betfair
2.60
Superbet
2.60
Under
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.1%
@ 1.54+1.2%
No
39.9%
@ 2.21-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.57
Superbet
1.56
1xBet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
No
Unibet
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Betfair
2.25
William Hil
2.25
1xBet
2.24
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.6%@ 6.29+6.0%
1-2
8.7%@ 8.71+3.9%
2-1
8.1%@ 8.41+3.2%
0-1
7.0%@ 9.56+2.6%
0-0
6.5%@ 11.36+2.8%
1-0
6.4%@ 8.90+1.8%
0-2
6.2%@ 12.86+2.9%
2-2
6.1%@ 10.63+2.2%
Dainava goals ↓
Tauras goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
7.0%
6.2%
3.1%
1.2%
1
6.4%
13%
8.7%
4.4%
1.7%
2
5.3%
8.1%
6.1%
3.1%
1.2%
3
2.5%
3.8%
2.9%
1.5%
0.6%
4
0.9%
1.3%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dainava goals (down), columns = Tauras goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Žalgiris II
2.60
Minija
2.25
Babrungas
2.17
BFA
2.17
Dainava
1.80
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.67
Tauras
1.60
FA Šiauliai II
1.40
Be1 NFA
1.20
Jonava
1.20
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.20
Hegelmann II
1.00
Atmosfera
1.00
Transinvest 2
0.80
Ekranas
0.67
Garliava
0.00
Dainava is 0.20 points better than Tauras in terms of average points per game (1.80 vs 1.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Minija
3.00
BFA
2.17
Žalgiris II
2.00
Babrungas
1.83
Kauno Žalgiris II
1.60
Atmosfera
1.40
Dainava
1.40
Tauras
1.40
Transinvest 2
1.40
Hegelmann II
1.33
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.17
Be1 NFA
1.00
Jonava
1.00
Ekranas
1.00
FA Šiauliai II
1.00
Garliava
0.20
Dainava and Tauras are level in goals scored per game (both 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Minija
0.25
Babrungas
0.50
Žalgiris II
0.60
Dainava
0.80
BFA
0.83
Jonava
1.00
Tauras
1.20
FA Šiauliai II
1.40
Neptūną Klaipėda
1.50
Atmosfera
1.60
Garliava
1.60
Be1 NFA
1.80
Kauno Žalgiris II
2.00
Transinvest 2
2.00
Hegelmann II
2.50
Ekranas
2.67
Dainava is 0.40 goals better than Tauras in terms of goals conceded per game (0.80 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dainava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.29
0.86
0.44
0.50
vs Stronger (29)
0.31
0.66
0.15
0.85
0.44
0.50
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.44
0.81
0.86
0.36
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
0.56
0.20
1.00
1.75
0.00
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.75
0.33
1.33
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (13)
0.54
0.54
0.62
0.50
0.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dainava over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dainava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.23
0.57
1.14
0.75
1.31
vs Stronger (29)
0.66
1.28
0.54
1.23
0.75
1.31
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Tauras) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Tauras
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.43
1.25
0.44
1.21
0.43
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
0.56
0.80
0.60
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (8)
1.25
0.38
1.00
0.33
1.40
0.40
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
0.38
1.62
0.38
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Dainava) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dainava over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dainava over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tauras over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.1%
1.18
Unibet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+3.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŽI (27)
€1m
HI (37)
€0m
MIN (25)
€0m
FŠI (30)
€0m
TAU (21)
€0m
T2 (24)
€0m
DAI (28)
€0m
BFA (27)
€0m
NK (22)
€0m
GAR (25)
€0m
KŽI (29)
€0m
ATM (19)
€0m
EKR (31)
€0m
Dainava and Tauras have a similar squad value (both €0m).
Lithuania: 1 Lyga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Lithuania: 1 Lyga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
BFA
Babrungas
Žalgiris II
Neptūną Klaipėda
Minija
FA Šiauliai II
Jonava
Kauno Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
Hegelmann II
Atmosfera
Transinvest 2
Ekranas
Garliava