This opponent (Emmen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Emmen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.27
1.38
1.94
0.93
2.64
vs Stronger (13)
1.15
2.92
1.67
2.50
0.71
3.29
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.76
1.20
1.60
1.14
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
84.5%
Under 1.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
63.1%
Under 2.5
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.0%
Under 3.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.3%
No
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.4%
1-0 ✓
7.1%
3-1
6.8%
3-0
5.8%
2-2
5.7%
1-2
5.5%
De Graafschap goals ↓
Emmen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
3.6%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
1
7.1%
10%
5.5%
2.1%
0.6%
2
8.4%
9.8%
5.7%
2.2%
0.7%
3
5.8%
6.8%
4.0%
1.6%
0.5%
4
3.0%
3.6%
2.1%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = De Graafschap goals (down), columns = Emmen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ajax
2.53
PSV Eindhoven
2.44
Feyenoord
1.91
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Vitesse
1.56
Utrecht
1.56
Heracles
1.41
Groningen
1.32
Den Haag
1.32
Willem II
1.29
VVV Venlo
1.21
Heerenveen
1.21
PEC Zwolle
1.15
Emmen
1.12
Fortuna Sittard
1.00
Excelsior
0.97
De Graafschap
0.85
NAC Breda
0.68
De Graafschap is 0.26 points worse than Emmen in terms of average points per game (0.85 vs 1.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
3.50
PSV Eindhoven
2.88
Feyenoord
2.21
Vitesse
2.06
AZ Alkmaar
1.88
Heerenveen
1.88
Heracles
1.79
Utrecht
1.76
Den Haag
1.71
Willem II
1.71
Fortuna Sittard
1.47
VVV Venlo
1.38
Excelsior
1.35
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Emmen
1.21
Groningen
1.15
De Graafschap
1.12
NAC Breda
0.85
De Graafschap is 0.09 goals worse than Emmen in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
PSV Eindhoven
0.76
Ajax
0.94
Groningen
1.21
Feyenoord
1.21
AZ Alkmaar
1.26
Vitesse
1.50
Utrecht
1.50
PEC Zwolle
1.68
Den Haag
1.85
VVV Venlo
1.85
Heracles
2.00
Willem II
2.12
Emmen
2.12
Heerenveen
2.15
NAC Breda
2.18
De Graafschap
2.21
Excelsior
2.32
Fortuna Sittard
2.35
De Graafschap is 0.09 goals worse than Emmen in terms of goals conceded per game (2.21 vs 2.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
De Graafschap
For 4.6 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 10.4 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Emmen
For 5.1 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 10.9 · Total 25.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
De Graafschap
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.7
9.8
2.1
2.6
1.7
24.5
25.3
23.8
vs Stronger (18)
9.1
8.8
9.4
1.2
2.0
0.7
22.8
23.8
22.0
vs Similar (32)
10.0
10.1
9.9
2.6
2.8
2.3
25.2
25.9
24.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
67%
50%
28%
42%
15%
68%
80%
56%
% under line
42%
33%
50%
72%
58%
85%
32%
20%
44%
This opponent (Emmen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Emmen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (31)
10.4
10.7
10.1
3.4
3.6
3.2
24.6
26.1
23.0
vs Stronger (13)
10.0
9.7
10.3
3.2
3.5
2.9
23.2
26.8
20.1
vs Similar (18)
10.7
11.3
9.9
3.6
3.7
3.5
25.6
25.6
25.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
58%
50%
67%
52%
56%
47%
71%
81%
60%
% under line
42%
50%
33%
48%
44%
53%
29%
19%
40%
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Excelsior
12.2
Fortuna Sittard
11.4
AZ Alkmaar
11.2
Den Haag
11.1
Heracles
11.0
Ajax
11.0
PSV Eindhoven
11.0
Feyenoord
10.9
Vitesse
10.8
PEC Zwolle
10.8
NAC Breda
10.6
VVV Venlo
10.5
Emmen
10.4
Utrecht
10.3
Willem II
10.2
Heerenveen
9.8
Groningen
9.8
De Graafschap
9.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fortuna Sittard
3.8
PEC Zwolle
3.7
PSV Eindhoven
3.7
Groningen
3.5
AZ Alkmaar
3.5
Vitesse
3.4
Emmen
3.4
De Graafschap
3.4
Heracles
3.4
NAC Breda
3.4
Ajax
3.3
Willem II
3.3
VVV Venlo
3.3
Utrecht
3.2
Den Haag
3.1
Excelsior
3.0
Heerenveen
2.9
Feyenoord
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Emmen
24.6
De Graafschap
24.5
Fortuna Sittard
24.2
Heracles
24.2
Heerenveen
23.5
Willem II
23.2
Vitesse
23.1
Utrecht
23.1
VVV Venlo
23.1
PEC Zwolle
22.9
NAC Breda
22.9
Groningen
22.7
AZ Alkmaar
22.5
Ajax
22.5
Den Haag
22.1
Excelsior
21.7
PSV Eindhoven
21.6
Feyenoord
21.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.8%
Under 9.5
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.4%
Under 3.5
56.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
64.6%
Under 21.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
De Graafschap
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.87
0.64
0.93
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.12
0.33
0.67
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (22)
0.55
0.77
0.73
1.00
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Emmen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Emmen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.07
0.44
0.69
0.14
1.50
vs Stronger (13)
0.31
1.38
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.71
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.82
0.30
0.50
0.29
1.29
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
De Graafschap over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
De Graafschap over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
De Graafschap over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Emmen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Emmen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Emmen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
De Graafschap
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.30
0.86
0.79
0.44
1.75
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
2.12
0.33
1.33
0.00
2.60
vs Similar (22)
0.82
1.00
1.00
0.64
0.64
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Emmen) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Emmen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.20
0.94
1.25
0.79
1.14
vs Stronger (13)
0.85
1.54
1.00
1.50
0.71
1.57
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.94
0.90
1.10
0.86
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
De Graafschap over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
De Graafschap over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
De Graafschap over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Emmen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Emmen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Emmen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
De Graafschap · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Julian Kania50%
Donny Warmerdam25%
Bjorn van Zijl25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Kaya Symons0%
Joran Hardeman0%
Rowan Besselink0%
Nart Ahmeti0%
Toivo Mero0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Gijs Bolk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Donny Warmerdam50%
Kaya Symons33%
Rowan Besselink33%
Nart Ahmeti25%
Julian Kania25%
Gijs Bolk25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Joran Hardeman0%
Toivo Mero0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Bjorn van Zijl0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toivo Mero67%
Nart Ahmeti25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Donny Warmerdam0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Kaya Symons0%
Joran Hardeman0%
Rowan Besselink0%
Julian Kania0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Gijs Bolk0%
Bjorn van Zijl0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julian Kania75%
Joran Hardeman25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Donny Warmerdam0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Kaya Symons0%
Rowan Besselink0%
Nart Ahmeti0%
Toivo Mero0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Gijs Bolk0%
Bjorn van Zijl0%
Emmen · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Freddy Quispel75%
Nelson Amadin50%
Michael Breij25%
Jack Cooper Love25%
Alessandro Hojabrpour0%
Casper Staring0%
Bryan Van Hove0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Joshua Mukeh0%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme0%
Luca Everink0%
Sam Karssies0%
Sybrand Veldhuis0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alessandro Hojabrpour50%
Bryan Van Hove50%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme50%
Michael Breij25%
Joshua Mukeh25%
Luca Everink25%
Sybrand Veldhuis25%
Freddy Quispel0%
Nelson Amadin0%
Jack Cooper Love0%
Casper Staring0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Sam Karssies0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jack Cooper Love50%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme50%
Michael Breij25%
Casper Staring25%
Bryan Van Hove25%
Luca Everink25%
Sam Karssies25%
Freddy Quispel0%
Alessandro Hojabrpour0%
Nelson Amadin0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Joshua Mukeh0%
Sybrand Veldhuis0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Freddy Quispel75%
Jack Cooper Love75%
Michael Breij50%
Nelson Amadin50%
Alessandro Hojabrpour0%
Casper Staring0%
Bryan Van Hove0%
Mustafa Abdullatif0%
Joshua Mukeh0%
Yanis Dede-Lhomme0%
Luca Everink0%
Sam Karssies0%
Sybrand Veldhuis0%
Vincent Carus0%
Daan Lambers0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
WI (24)
€13m
NB (23)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
DG (21)
€6m
EMM (21)
€5m
VV (19)
€4m
De Graafschap's squad is €1m more valuable than Emmen's (€6m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
DG (8)
€2m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
De Graafschap and Emmen have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
De Graafschap and Emmen have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
PZ (10)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (11)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
De Graafschap's defence is €1m more valuable than Emmen's (€2m vs €1m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
Vitesse
Utrecht
Heracles
Groningen
Willem II
Heerenveen
VVV Venlo
PEC Zwolle
Fortuna Sittard
Excelsior
NAC Breda