De Graafschap, coming off a draw against Helmond Sport, hosts Jong AZ, who are still reeling from a recent defeat to FC Eindhoven. The model predicts a high-scoring match, with an expected total of 3.9 goals and a 20% chance of 6+ goals being scored. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 8.4%.
De Graafschap has a strong home record, scoring an average of 2.55 goals and conceding 1.36 goals per match against similar opponents. Jong AZ, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring 1.9 goals and conceding 2.8 goals per match against similar opponents.
The model's selection is a home win, with a 51% chance of success. The draw percentage is 22%, while the away win percentage is 28%. The model's selections include Over 1.5 (91.0%), Over 2.5 (75.1%), and BTTS Yes (73.4%).
Results analysis
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise. De Graafschap’s recent form, after two straight defeats, had been fragile, while Jong AZ, coming off a loss, looked unsettled. The final score was 2-5, an away win that left the model’s pick wrong. The model’s selection of a home win, with a 52 % probability, proved incorrect. Among the suggested picks, the model’s choice of Away under 3.5 goals (91.6 %) missed, Over 1.5 (91.1 %) hit, Home over 0.5 goals (89.9 %) hit, Home +2 handicap (87.0 %) missed, Under 5.5 cards (86.7 %) missed, Away over 0.5 goals (80.6 %) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (80.0 %) hit, and Home or Away (78.6 %) hit. The match delivered more goals than the model’s 3.9-goal expectation, with the most likely scoreline of 2-1 proving unlikely.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
De Graafschap win✗ Miss
51.8%
Avg Implied 53.9% · @ 1.72
Edge
-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.78
Dafabet
1.77
SBO
1.77
Bet365
1.75
888Sport
1.73
Draw✗ Miss
21.4%
Avg Implied 21.3% · @ 4.36
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.93
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
Dafabet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Jong AZ win✓ Hit
26.8%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.74
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.90
10Bet
3.85
Dafabet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
1xBet
3.82
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
De Graafschap
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.63
2.23
1.46
1.88
1.76
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
2.03
1.66
2.23
1.46
1.88
1.81
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong AZ
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
2.07
1.19
1.88
2.14
2.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.82
2.45
1.50
2.33
2.20
2.60
vs Weaker (19)
1.53
1.84
1.00
1.60
2.11
2.11
Clean sheet %
13% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (20%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.1%
@ 1.07+3.8%
Under 1.5
8.9%
@ 7.34-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Under
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
1xBet
7.70
Marathonbet
7.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
75.2%
@ 1.29+3.1%
Under 2.5
24.8%
@ 3.34-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
888Sport
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.47
Bet365
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.4%
@ 1.78+2.6%
Under 3.5
44.6%
@ 1.99-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.81
Bet365
1.80
888Sport
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.05
SBO
2.03
Marathonbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
73.2%
@ 1.33+3.2%
No
26.8%
@ 3.10-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.34
William Hil
1.33
10Bet
1.33
888Sport
1.33
No
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
1xBet
3.14
William Hil
3.10
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.4%@ 8.49+3.1%
1-1
8.1%@ 9.43+3.2%
2-2
6.9%@ 10.31+2.5%
3-1
6.5%@ 10.89+2.3%
1-2
6.0%@ 12.65+2.4%
3-2
5.3%@ 13.18+1.8%
2-0
5.1%@ 12.62+1.5%
3-0
3.9%@ 16.32+1.1%
De Graafschap goals ↓
Jong AZ goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.7%
2.5%
2.6%
1.4%
0.6%
1
3.8%
8.1%
6.0%
3.3%
1.4%
2
5.1%
8.4%
6.9%
3.8%
1.6%
3
3.9%
6.5%
5.3%
2.9%
1.2%
4
2.3%
3.7%
3.0%
1.7%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = De Graafschap goals (down), columns = Jong AZ goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
De Graafschap is 0.55 points better than Jong AZ in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.05).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
De Graafschap is 0.32 goals better than Jong AZ in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
De Graafschap is 0.43 goals better than Jong AZ in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
De Graafschap is 2.4 percentage points better than Jong AZ in terms of average possession (56% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
De Graafschap
For 5.0 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 11.1 · Total 23.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong AZ
For 6.3 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.1 · Against 8.9 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
De Graafschap
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.9
11.6
12.2
2.9
2.7
3.0
22.6
22.1
23.1
vs Stronger (2)
13.5
12.0
15.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
20.0
20.0
20.0
vs Similar (48)
11.8
11.6
12.0
2.9
2.8
3.1
22.8
22.2
23.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
75%
65%
84%
36%
29%
42%
56%
52%
60%
% under line
25%
35%
16%
64%
71%
58%
44%
48%
40%
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong AZ
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.9
10.3
11.5
3.2
3.2
3.2
23.4
24.6
22.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
11.8
10.4
13.4
3.5
3.6
3.4
23.4
25.5
20.8
vs Weaker (30)
10.3
10.2
10.3
3.0
2.9
3.0
23.4
23.9
23.0
% over line
58%
50%
67%
38%
38%
38%
66%
77%
54%
% under line
42%
50%
33%
62%
62%
62%
34%
23%
46%
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.8
Dordrecht
11.7
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong AZ
10.9
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.7
FC Volendam
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
Emmen
10.4
FC Eindhoven
10.4
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.2
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.9
Jong Utrecht
9.8
Vitesse
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.4
Dordrecht
4.2
FC OSS
4.2
Jong Ajax
3.9
Emmen
3.9
NAC Breda
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
Heracles
3.5
VVV Venlo
3.5
Helmond Sport
3.4
Roda
3.3
Jong AZ
3.3
FC Volendam
3.3
Waalwijk
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
De Graafschap
3.2
MVV
3.1
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Almere City FC
3.0
Jong Utrecht
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.2
Vitesse
27.0
Emmen
25.9
Helmond Sport
25.9
Jong Utrecht
25.6
Dordrecht
25.5
Roda
25.1
Jong Ajax
24.6
Heracles
24.3
Jong PSV U21
24.0
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.4
Den Bosch
23.4
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.7
De Graafschap
22.7
MVV
22.6
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.1
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.46
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Under
Betano
2.65
Marathonbet
2.53
Unibet
2.48
1xBet
2.45
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
De Graafschap or Draw✗ Miss
73.2%
Avg Implied 75.3% · @ 1.24
Edge
-2.0%
52%
21%
27%
covers De Graafschap + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.30
888Sport
1.25
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
De Graafschap or Jong AZ✓ Hit
78.6%
Avg Implied 79.1% · @ 1.18
Edge
-0.5%
52%
21%
27%
covers De Graafschap + Jong AZ
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
William Hil
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
Draw or Jong AZ✓ Hit
48.2%
Avg Implied 45.7% · @ 2.04
Edge
+2.5%
52%
21%
27%
covers Draw + Jong AZ
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.09
Marathonbet
2.09
Betano
2.07
SBO
2.06
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
De Graafschap over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
89.9%
@ 1.06+1.9%
Under
10.1%
@ 7.80-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Under
1xBet
8.60
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
888Sport
7.50
Betano
6.40
De Graafschap over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
66.8%
@ 1.40+0.5%
Under
33.2%
@ 2.75-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.41
BetVictor
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.85
Pinnacle
2.82
BetVictor
2.75
De Graafschap over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
40.3%
@ 2.28-0.5%
Under
59.7%
@ 1.57+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.38
Pinnacle
2.32
Betano
2.32
BetVictor
2.30
888Sport
2.30
Under
Pinnacle
1.61
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.57
De Graafschap over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
20.0%
@ 4.24-1.9%
Under
80.0%
@ 1.18+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
888Sport
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.20
Under
Betfair
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.20
888Sport
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Jong AZ over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.6%
@ 1.21+4.1%
Under
19.4%
@ 3.95-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Under
BetVictor
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Pinnacle
4.04
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Jong AZ over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
48.8%
@ 2.07+3.9%
Under
51.2%
@ 1.69-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Under
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
BetVictor
1.70
Jong AZ over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
22.7%
@ 4.42+1.8%
Under
77.3%
@ 1.17-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.18
10Bet
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Jong AZ over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
8.4%
@ 9.94-1.1%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.04+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
9.50
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.04
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to De Graafschap, so a minus line means De Graafschap give that many goals of a start and Jong AZ receive them. At -1, De Graafschap must win by two or more to land; a one-goal De Graafschap win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (De Graafschap)Actual: Jong AZ
De Graafschap -2
16.8%
@ 4.67-2.4%
Draw -2
15.5%
@ 5.10-2.0%
Jong AZ +2
67.7%
@ 1.42+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.70
Away
Bet365
1.44
Unibet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Handicap -1 (De Graafschap)Actual: Jong AZ
De Graafschap -1
32.3%
@ 2.62-1.7%
Draw -1
19.5%
@ 4.03-2.7%
Jong AZ +1
48.2%
@ 2.04+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.75
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.60
Marathonbet
2.57
Unibet
2.55
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.85
Away
Marathonbet
2.09
10Bet
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Handicap +1 (De Graafschap)Actual: Jong AZ
De Graafschap +1
73.2%
@ 1.23+0.1%
Draw +1
13.7%
@ 6.14-1.0%
Jong AZ -1
13.0%
@ 7.44+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.75
Away
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.70
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Handicap +2 (De Graafschap)Actual: Jong AZ
De Graafschap +2
87.0%
@ 1.07+0.3%
Draw +2
7.9%
@ 11.50-0.1%
Jong AZ -2
5.1%
@ 17.50-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Away
Betfair
18.00
Bet365
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
De Graafschap
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
0.85
0.46
1.00
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (29)
0.93
0.59
0.85
0.46
1.00
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong AZ
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
0.50
0.81
0.86
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.80
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
0.68
0.79
0.50
0.70
0.89
0.89
Clean sheet %
33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
De Graafschap over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
De Graafschap over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
De Graafschap over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong AZ over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong AZ over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong AZ over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
De Graafschap
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.03
1.38
1.00
0.88
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (29)
1.10
1.07
1.38
1.00
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong AZ) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong AZ
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.20
0.69
1.06
1.29
1.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.18
1.45
1.00
1.33
1.40
1.60
vs Weaker (19)
0.84
1.05
0.50
0.90
1.22
1.22
Clean sheet %
27% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (De Graafschap) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
De Graafschap over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
De Graafschap over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
De Graafschap over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong AZ over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong AZ over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Jong AZ over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
91.6%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.05
888Sport
1.04
Betfair
1.04
-
+1.1%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
91.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
888Sport
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.07
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
89.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
888Sport
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
+0.3%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
80.6%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
80.0%
1.18
Betfair
1.20
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.20
888Sport
1.18
10Bet
1.18
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
78.6%
1.18
Betano
1.21
William Hil
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.18
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
77.3%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.18
10Bet
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
-1.8%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
75.2%
1.29
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
888Sport
1.30
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
73.2%
1.24
Betano
1.30
888Sport
1.25
William Hil
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-2.0%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
73.2%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Unibet
1.22
+0.1%
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
73.2%
1.33
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.34
William Hil
1.33
10Bet
1.33
888Sport
1.33
+3.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
De Graafschap
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Julian Kania50%
Donny Warmerdam25%
Bjorn van Zijl25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Kaya Symons0%
Joran Hardeman0%
Rowan Besselink0%
Nart Ahmeti0%
Toivo Mero0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Gijs Bolk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Donny Warmerdam50%
Kaya Symons33%
Rowan Besselink33%
Nart Ahmeti25%
Julian Kania25%
Gijs Bolk25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Joran Hardeman0%
Toivo Mero0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Bjorn van Zijl0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Toivo Mero67%
Nart Ahmeti25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Donny Warmerdam0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Kaya Symons0%
Joran Hardeman0%
Rowan Besselink0%
Julian Kania0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Gijs Bolk0%
Bjorn van Zijl0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julian Kania75%
Joran Hardeman25%
Jason Meerstadt0%
Donny Warmerdam0%
Ties Wieggers0%
Nathan Kaninda0%
Kaya Symons0%
Rowan Besselink0%
Nart Ahmeti0%
Toivo Mero0%
Denzel Eijken0%
Gijs Bolk0%
Bjorn van Zijl0%
Jong AZ
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ayoub Oufkir67%
Julian Oerip40%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Rio Robbemond25%
Yoël van den Ban20%
Tycho de Wit20%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Andrea Natali0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julian Oerip40%
Ayoub Oufkir33%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Yoël van den Ban0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Rio Robbemond0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Andrea Natali0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andrea Natali33%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Rio Robbemond25%
Julian Oerip20%
Yoël van den Ban20%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Ayoub Oufkir0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julian Oerip100%
Ayoub Oufkir67%
Bendegúz Kovács33%
Sam De Grand0%
Kiyani Zeggen0%
Yoël van den Ban0%
Rion Ichihara0%
Jesper Zwart0%
Frej Elkjær Andersen0%
Rio Robbemond0%
Mathijs Menu0%
Andrea Natali0%
Jerolldino Bergraaf0%
Hessel de Wit0%
Kiani Inge0%
Tycho de Wit0%
Julian Sijbrands0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
De Graafschap and Jong AZ have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
De Graafschap and Jong AZ have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
De Graafschap and Jong AZ have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
De Graafschap and Jong AZ have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
Jong Utrecht