Debreceni VSC are the clear favourites, with a 43% chance of victory, 27% for a draw and 30% for MTK Budapest to win. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals on average, but the most likely total is 2 goals, a 25% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.8% chance. Debreceni, playing at home against a similarly-ranked opponent, average 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded, while MTK, on the road, average 1.38 goals scored and 2.15 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5% with a 6% edge), Under 6.5 (97.4% with a 5% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.9% with a 5% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.2% with a 7% edge) and Under 5.5 (93.1% with a 6% edge).
Results analysis
The draw was a shock, as the pre-match favourite, a home win, was not delivered. The final score of 2-2 matched the actual result, leaving the model’s call wrong. Debreceni VSC had been coming off a draw, while MTK Budapest also finished their last match in a 2-2 tie, both teams showing similar recent form. The model had given a 43% chance to a home win, 27% to a draw and 30% to an away win. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 (99.1%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.4%), Under 6.5 (97.4%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.9%) and Under 5.5 (93.1%). The match confirmed the model’s confidence in low-scoring outcomes, even though the favourite side failed to win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Debreceni VSC win✗ Miss
43.4%
Avg Implied 41.9% · @ 2.18
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.28
Unibet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Dafabet
2.22
Betano
2.22
Draw✓ Hit
27.0%
Avg Implied 26.2% · @ 3.49
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.66
Betfair
3.60
10Bet
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
Betano
3.55
MTK Budapest win✗ Miss
29.6%
Avg Implied 31.9% · @ 2.87
Edge
-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.96
Superbet
2.95
Dafabet
2.95
Betano
2.95
10Bet
2.94
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Debreceni VSC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.43
1.06
1.25
1.57
1.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.50
0.00
2.50
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (26)
1.42
1.27
1.21
1.07
1.67
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MTK Budapest
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.87
2.00
1.60
1.27
2.13
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
3.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (25)
1.64
1.80
1.92
1.42
1.38
2.15
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.33
3.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Debreceni VSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
@ 1.16-1.5%
Under 1.5
21.2%
@ 4.74+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.50
Pinnacle
5.02
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.1%
@ 1.55-5.7%
Under 2.5
45.9%
@ 2.31+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.40
Pinnacle
2.40
Bet365
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.32
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.8%
@ 2.39-7.3%
Under 3.5
68.2%
@ 1.53+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.43
Betano
2.40
Betfair
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Under
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.53
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.2%
@ 1.47-4.7%
No
41.8%
@ 2.48+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
10Bet
1.45
No
Betfair
2.63
1xBet
2.55
Betano
2.50
William Hil
2.50
Marathonbet
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%@ 6.54+6.1%
2-1
9.2%@ 8.12+3.8%
1-0
8.0%@ 9.86+3.6%
1-2
7.4%@ 9.28+2.7%
2-0
7.2%@ 11.64+3.5%
0-0
7.0%@ 13.88+3.8%
0-1
6.2%@ 11.48+2.4%
2-2 ✓
5.8%@ 9.92+1.4%
Debreceni VSC goals ↓
MTK Budapest goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.0%
6.2%
4.7%
2.0%
0.6%
1
8.0%
13%
7.4%
3.1%
1.0%
2
7.2%
9.2%
5.8%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.8%
4.8%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.5%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Debreceni VSC goals (down), columns = MTK Budapest goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.00
Puskas Academy
2.00
Ujpest
1.67
Gyori ETO FC
1.50
MTK Budapest
1.50
Paks
1.33
Vasas
1.33
Budapest Honved
1.20
Nyiregyhaza
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.00
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.50
Debreceni VSC is 0.50 points worse than MTK Budapest in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paks
2.17
Ujpest
2.17
MTK Budapest
2.17
Gyori ETO FC
1.83
Vasas
1.67
Puskas Academy
1.67
Ferencvarosi TC
1.60
Budapest Honved
1.60
Kisvarda FC
1.17
Debreceni VSC
1.00
Nyiregyhaza
1.00
Zalaegerszegi TE
0.83
Debreceni VSC is 1.17 goals worse than MTK Budapest in terms of goals scored per game (1.00 vs 2.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ferencvarosi TC
1.00
Gyori ETO FC
1.17
Vasas
1.17
Kisvarda FC
1.33
Puskas Academy
1.33
Debreceni VSC
1.50
Budapest Honved
1.60
Ujpest
1.67
MTK Budapest
1.67
Nyiregyhaza
1.67
Paks
2.17
Zalaegerszegi TE
2.50
Debreceni VSC is 0.17 goals better than MTK Budapest in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
58%
Debreceni VSC
55%
Gyori ETO FC
53%
Budapest Honved
52%
Ujpest
51%
Nyiregyhaza
51%
Paks
50%
MTK Budapest
50%
Zalaegerszegi TE
49%
Puskas Academy
45%
Vasas
43%
Kisvarda FC
42%
Debreceni VSC is 4.8 percentage points better than MTK Budapest in terms of average possession (55% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Debreceni VSC
For 6.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 14.1 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
MTK Budapest
For 4.5 · Against 5.7 · Total 10.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 13.4 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Debreceni VSC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.2
9.2
3.4
3.3
3.6
27.4
28.1
26.8
vs Stronger (5)
9.4
9.0
10.0
2.6
2.3
3.0
29.6
31.3
27.0
vs Similar (45)
9.7
10.4
9.2
3.5
3.5
3.6
27.1
27.4
26.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
47%
40%
44%
48%
40%
85%
89%
80%
% under line
56%
53%
60%
56%
52%
60%
15%
11%
20%
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MTK Budapest
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.2
11.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
24.9
24.6
25.2
vs Stronger (5)
11.5
10.7
14.0
2.6
4.0
0.5
25.5
25.0
27.0
vs Similar (41)
10.0
8.9
10.9
3.2
3.0
3.4
24.8
24.5
25.1
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
57%
44%
71%
44%
42%
46%
74%
72%
76%
% under line
43%
56%
29%
56%
58%
54%
26%
28%
24%
This opponent (Debreceni VSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
10.3
Ujpest
10.0
Puskas Academy
9.8
Gyori ETO FC
9.8
Kisvarda FC
9.8
Debreceni VSC
9.7
MTK Budapest
9.6
Ferencvarosi TC
9.5
Budapest Honved
9.4
Zalaegerszegi TE
9.0
Vasas
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.2
Paks
5.1
Debreceni VSC
5.1
Vasas
5.0
Ujpest
5.0
Puskas Academy
4.8
Gyori ETO FC
4.8
Ferencvarosi TC
4.7
MTK Budapest
4.3
Budapest Honved
4.3
Kisvarda FC
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Paks
28.5
Debreceni VSC
28.0
Ferencvarosi TC
27.5
Puskas Academy
27.5
Ujpest
26.2
Zalaegerszegi TE
24.8
MTK Budapest
24.8
Gyori ETO FC
24.2
Kisvarda FC
24.0
Budapest Honved
23.3
Vasas
21.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.6%
@ 1.76+5.9%
Under 9.5
41.4%
@ 1.96-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Under
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Bet365
1.91
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.4%
Under 3.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
84.1%
Under 21.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Debreceni VSC or Draw✓ Hit
70.4%
Avg Implied 68.2% · @ 1.35
Edge
+2.3%
43%
27%
30%
covers Debreceni VSC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Debreceni VSC or MTK Budapest✗ Miss
73.0%
Avg Implied 74.1% · @ 1.25
Edge
-1.2%
43%
27%
30%
covers Debreceni VSC + MTK Budapest
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.24
Draw or MTK Budapest✓ Hit
56.6%
Avg Implied 57.7% · @ 1.60
Edge
-1.1%
43%
27%
30%
covers Draw + MTK Budapest
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
William Hil
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.61
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Debreceni VSC over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.3%
@ 1.16-0.6%
Under
20.7%
@ 4.62+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Under
Bet365
5.00
1xBet
4.85
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.55
Betano
4.45
Debreceni VSC over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.8%
@ 1.84-3.7%
Under
53.2%
@ 1.87+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.91
Pinnacle
1.89
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.91
Bet365
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Debreceni VSC over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
21.1%
@ 3.67-4.1%
Under
78.9%
@ 1.23+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.90
Pinnacle
3.82
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.60
Superbet
3.60
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Debreceni VSC over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 7.65-4.6%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.06+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
7.70
Betano
7.20
1xBet
6.70
Under
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
71.9%
@ 1.23-3.2%
Under
28.1%
@ 3.71+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
Under
Pinnacle
4.04
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.74
Marathonbet
3.74
10Bet
3.65
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
36.2%
@ 2.17-6.5%
Under
63.8%
@ 1.62+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.23
Unibet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Under
Betano
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.62
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
13.6%
@ 4.74-5.9%
Under
86.4%
@ 1.14+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.80
1xBet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
MTK Budapest over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 10.67-4.9%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.04+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Debreceni VSC, so a minus line means Debreceni VSC give that many goals of a start and MTK Budapest receive them. At -1, Debreceni VSC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Debreceni VSC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Debreceni VSC)Actual: MTK Budapest
Debreceni VSC -2
9.2%
@ 7.92-2.2%
Draw -2
13.4%
@ 6.28-0.9%
MTK Budapest +2
77.4%
@ 1.21+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
8.20
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
8.00
Superbet
7.50
Draw
Marathonbet
6.60
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.00
Superbet
6.00
Away
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
Handicap -1 (Debreceni VSC)Actual: MTK Budapest
Debreceni VSC -1
22.6%
@ 3.92-0.1%
Draw -1
20.8%
@ 4.10-1.0%
MTK Budapest +1
56.6%
@ 1.61+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Unibet
3.95
Marathonbet
3.92
Superbet
3.85
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
10Bet
3.90
Away
10Bet
1.67
Superbet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Unibet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.57
Handicap +1 (Debreceni VSC)Actual: Debreceni VSC
Debreceni VSC +1
70.4%
@ 1.36+5.1%
Draw +1
16.5%
@ 4.73-2.3%
MTK Budapest -1
13.1%
@ 5.61-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.32
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.80
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
4.40
Away
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.35
Unibet
5.20
Handicap +2 (Debreceni VSC)Actual: Debreceni VSC
Debreceni VSC +2
86.9%
@ 1.11+6.0%
Draw +2
8.7%
@ 8.03-2.5%
MTK Budapest -2
4.4%
@ 11.50-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
7.60
Unibet
7.50
Away
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Unibet
10.50
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Debreceni VSC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.38
0.56
0.71
0.71
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.62
0.62
0.43
0.50
0.83
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MTK Budapest
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.67
0.93
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.80
0.58
0.83
0.54
0.77
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.50
1.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Debreceni VSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.2%
@ 1.26-4.0%
Under 0.5
30.8%
@ 3.44+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.32
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
3.75
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.1%
@ 2.28-6.6%
Under 1.5
65.9%
@ 1.57+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
Pinnacle
2.34
Unibet
2.32
William Hil
2.30
Marathonbet
2.26
Under
10Bet
1.60
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Betano
1.57
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
12.2%
@ 5.10-6.0%
Under 2.5
87.8%
@ 1.13+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Debreceni VSC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
50.1%
@ 1.76-2.4%
Under
49.9%
@ 1.95+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Unibet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.78
Superbet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
1.97
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Debreceni VSC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
14.5%
@ 4.75-5.0%
Under
85.5%
@ 1.15+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
Betano
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.65
1xBet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
Debreceni VSC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 12.50-4.9%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.02+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
37.0%
@ 1.96-10.4%
Under
63.0%
@ 1.76+10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Pinnacle
1.99
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Unibet
1.95
Under
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.80
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Betano
1.75
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
10.1%
@ 5.82-5.7%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.10+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.35
1xBet
5.80
Superbet
5.75
Betano
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 16.58-3.9%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
10Bet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Debreceni VSC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.69
0.69
0.86
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.00
1.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.65
0.79
0.57
0.83
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (MTK Budapest) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
MTK Budapest
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.03
1.33
0.67
0.80
1.40
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.08
1.00
1.33
0.58
0.85
1.38
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Debreceni VSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.9%
@ 1.14-4.1%
Under 0.5
23.1%
@ 4.86+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Under
Marathonbet
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.85
William Hil
4.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
44.3%
@ 1.75-8.6%
Under 1.5
55.7%
@ 1.97+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.83
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Under
Betano
2.05
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.9%
@ 3.28-10.2%
Under 2.5
82.1%
@ 1.29+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.35
William Hil
3.30
Betano
3.25
1xBet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.26
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Debreceni VSC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.5%
@ 1.51-8.8%
Under
47.5%
@ 2.40+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.52
1xBet
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Under
10Bet
2.45
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.40
Superbet
2.32
Debreceni VSC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.3%
@ 3.41-8.8%
Under
81.7%
@ 1.27+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.35
Betano
3.35
1xBet
3.30
Under
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Debreceni VSC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.1%
@ 8.70-5.6%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.04+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.30
1xBet
9.20
10Bet
8.50
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
MTK Budapest over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
49.7%
@ 1.67-5.9%
Under
50.3%
@ 2.08+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.68
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.64
Under
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.07
1xBet
2.06
MTK Budapest over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.8%
@ 4.26-6.9%
Under
85.2%
@ 1.18+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.35
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.30
Superbet
4.25
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
MTK Budapest over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 11.08-5.5%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.03+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.1%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.0%
1.04
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.1%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.4%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Superbet
1.05
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.9%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
+5.7%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.13
Betano
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
+6.0%
✗ Miss
Home +2 handicap
86.9%
1.11
Superbet
1.12
Unibet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
86.4%
1.14
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
+5.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.5%
1.15
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.2%
1.18
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
84.1%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
+6.6%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.1%
1.29
Betano
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.28
1xBet
1.26
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.7%
1.27
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+8.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.3%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
10Bet
1.15
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.9%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.8%
1.16
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
77.4%
1.21
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
10Bet
1.15
-4.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.0%
1.25
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.24
-1.2%
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
71.9%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.6%
1.44
Superbet
1.51
Pinnacle
1.46
Unibet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Betano
1.42
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
70.4%
1.35
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.4%
1.36
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.32
+5.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Debreceni VSC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Balázs Dzsudzsák43%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes20%
Adrián Guerrero17%
Ákos Szendrei14%
Bence Batik0%
Ádám Lang0%
Josua Mejías0%
Rotem Keller0%
Plamen Andreev0%
Botond Vajda0%
Flórián Cibla0%
Gergő Tercza0%
Shedrach Kaye0%
Blaž Bošković0%
Sohan Baldoni0%
Leon Myrtaj0%
Balázs Sain0%
Dávid Patai0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Josua Mejías57%
Blaž Bošković50%
Balázs Dzsudzsák43%
Leon Myrtaj33%
Dávid Patai33%
Sohan Baldoni25%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes20%
Shedrach Kaye20%
Flórián Cibla14%
Bence Batik0%
Ádám Lang0%
Adrián Guerrero0%
Ákos Szendrei0%
Rotem Keller0%
Plamen Andreev0%
Botond Vajda0%
Gergő Tercza0%
Balázs Sain0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ákos Szendrei29%
Bence Batik0%
Ádám Lang0%
Balázs Dzsudzsák0%
Josua Mejías0%
Adrián Guerrero0%
Rotem Keller0%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes0%
Plamen Andreev0%
Botond Vajda0%
Flórián Cibla0%
Gergő Tercza0%
Shedrach Kaye0%
Blaž Bošković0%
Sohan Baldoni0%
Leon Myrtaj0%
Balázs Sain0%
Dávid Patai0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Flórián Cibla29%
Balázs Dzsudzsák14%
Josua Mejías14%
Ákos Szendrei14%
Bence Batik0%
Ádám Lang0%
Adrián Guerrero0%
Rotem Keller0%
Csanád Vilmos Dénes0%
Plamen Andreev0%
Botond Vajda0%
Gergő Tercza0%
Shedrach Kaye0%
Blaž Bošković0%
Sohan Baldoni0%
Leon Myrtaj0%
Balázs Sain0%
Dávid Patai0%
MTK Budapest
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Gábor Jurek75%
Zalán Kerezsi75%
István Bognár33%
Milán Klausz33%
Stipe Radić0%
Ilia Beriashvili0%
Patrik Demjén0%
György Komáromi0%
Benedek Varju0%
Mihály Kata0%
Vilius Armalas0%
Adrian Zeljković0%
Patrik Kovács0%
Krisztián László0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stipe Radić33%
Krisztián László33%
György Komáromi25%
Gábor Jurek25%
Ilia Beriashvili0%
Patrik Demjén0%
Benedek Varju0%
István Bognár0%
Mihály Kata0%
Vilius Armalas0%
Adrian Zeljković0%
Zalán Kerezsi0%
Milán Klausz0%
Patrik Kovács0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
István Bognár67%
Zalán Kerezsi50%
György Komáromi25%
Gábor Jurek25%
Stipe Radić0%
Ilia Beriashvili0%
Patrik Demjén0%
Benedek Varju0%
Mihály Kata0%
Vilius Armalas0%
Adrian Zeljković0%
Milán Klausz0%
Patrik Kovács0%
Krisztián László0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Gábor Jurek50%
Milán Klausz33%
Zalán Kerezsi25%
Stipe Radić0%
Ilia Beriashvili0%
Patrik Demjén0%
György Komáromi0%
Benedek Varju0%
István Bognár0%
Mihály Kata0%
Vilius Armalas0%
Adrian Zeljković0%
Patrik Kovács0%
Krisztián László0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (40)
€40m
GEF (28)
€16m
UJP (29)
€14m
PA (27)
€11m
MB (23)
€11m
DV (27)
€9m
PAK (29)
€8m
NYI (29)
€7m
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
ZT (23)
€5m
BH (25)
€5m
Debreceni VSC's squad is €2m less valuable than MTK Budapest's (€9m vs €11m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (18)
€24m
GEF (10)
€7m
UJP (7)
€5m
PA (12)
€5m
NYI (13)
€3m
VAS (11)
€3m
PAK (9)
€3m
DV (10)
€2m
KF (8)
€2m
MB (9)
€2m
ZT (8)
€2m
BH (6)
€1m
Debreceni VSC and MTK Budapest have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (9)
€8m
MB (4)
€4m
GEF (6)
€4m
UJP (8)
€3m
PA (5)
€2m
VAS (7)
€2m
PAK (6)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
DV (5)
€2m
ZT (5)
€1m
NYI (5)
€1m
BH (5)
€1m
Debreceni VSC's midfield is €2m less valuable than MTK Budapest's (€2m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FT (13)
€9m
UJP (14)
€5m
GEF (12)
€5m
MB (10)
€5m
DV (12)
€4m
PA (10)
€4m
PAK (14)
€4m
NYI (11)
€3m
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
ZT (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
Debreceni VSC and MTK Budapest have a similar defence value (both €4m).
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →
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