The contest between Debreceni VSC and Puskas Academy feels razor-thin, with the model favouring an away win. Home win odds sit at 31 %, a draw at 29 %, and an away win at 40 %. The average goal tally is 2.6, and the most likely total is two goals, with a 26 % chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.8 % probability. Debreceni’s home form shows 1.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded against similar opposition, while Puskas, on the road, averages 1.0 scored and 1.45 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 96 %, Over 21.5 fouls at 90.8 %, Over 2.5 cards at 88.1 %, Over 23.5 fouls at 82.3 % (miss), Under 11.5 corners at 74.7 %, Over 3.5 cards at 74.5 %, Over 1.5 at 74.1 %, and Under 3.5 at 74.0 %. Both sides have been evenly matched, but Puskas’s recent three-game winning streak and Debreceni’s draw-laden run leave the outcome uncertain.
Results analysis
The Pythia model’s prediction proved spot on, with Puskas Academy securing a 0-2 away victory, extending their three-game winning run. The model had chosen the away win with a 40% probability, and that call was correct. The final score of 0-2 matched the actual result, confirming the favoured outcome. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 96%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 90.8%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 88.1%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 74.7%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 74.5%, Over 1.5 hit at 74.1%, and Under 3.5 hit at 74.0%. Only Over 23.5 fouls missed at 82.3%. The prediction’s accuracy across these metrics underscores the model’s reliability.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Debreceni VSC win✗ Miss
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy win✓ Hit
39.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Debreceni VSC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.20
1.40
1.40
1.53
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
1.50
0.50
1.75
1.50
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.62
1.12
1.73
1.27
1.54
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Puskas Academy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
1.07
1.50
1.31
1.25
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.09
1.48
1.17
1.50
1.00
1.45
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
0.60
0.00
1.00
2.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Debreceni VSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.6%
Under 2.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.6%
No
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-1
9.2%
0-0
8.8%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
7.9%
2-1
7.5%
0-2 ✓
7.2%
2-0
5.5%
Debreceni VSC goals ↓
Puskas Academy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
9.2%
7.2%
3.3%
1.1%
1
7.9%
14%
8.6%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.5%
7.5%
5.2%
2.4%
0.8%
3
2.2%
3.0%
2.1%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Debreceni VSC goals (down), columns = Puskas Academy goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Gyori ETO FC
2.09
Ferencvarosi TC
2.06
Paks
1.61
Debreceni VSC
1.61
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.45
Puskas Academy
1.39
Vasas
1.32
Budapest Honved
1.21
Kisvarda FC
1.21
Nyiregyhaza
1.21
Ujpest
1.21
MTK Budapest
1.15
Debreceni VSC is 0.21 points better than Puskas Academy in terms of average points per game (1.61 vs 1.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ferencvarosi TC
2.03
Gyori ETO FC
1.97
Paks
1.91
MTK Budapest
1.67
Debreceni VSC
1.55
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.48
Ujpest
1.45
Vasas
1.44
Nyiregyhaza
1.42
Budapest Honved
1.32
Puskas Academy
1.30
Kisvarda FC
1.09
Debreceni VSC is 0.24 goals better than Puskas Academy in terms of goals scored per game (1.55 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gyori ETO FC
0.91
Ferencvarosi TC
0.94
Debreceni VSC
1.24
Puskas Academy
1.30
Zalaegerszegi TE
1.30
Paks
1.39
Kisvarda FC
1.48
Vasas
1.56
Budapest Honved
1.70
Nyiregyhaza
1.73
Ujpest
1.73
MTK Budapest
1.88
Debreceni VSC is 0.06 goals better than Puskas Academy in terms of goals conceded per game (1.24 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ferencvarosi TC
57%
Gyori ETO FC
55%
Ujpest
53%
Zalaegerszegi TE
51%
Debreceni VSC
50%
MTK Budapest
49%
Kisvarda FC
49%
Paks
47%
Puskas Academy
44%
Debreceni VSC is 6.2 percentage points better than Puskas Academy in terms of average possession (50% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Debreceni VSC
For 4.2 · Against 2.5 · Total 6.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 15.4 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Puskas Academy
For 5.1 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 18.0 · Against 9.6 · Total 27.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Debreceni VSC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.3
8.9
3.6
3.6
3.6
27.7
28.7
26.8
vs Stronger (8)
8.5
8.5
8.5
3.2
3.4
3.0
28.5
28.2
29.0
vs Similar (42)
9.2
9.5
9.0
3.7
3.7
3.7
27.6
28.8
26.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
41%
37%
45%
48%
54%
42%
85%
89%
80%
% under line
59%
63%
55%
52%
46%
58%
15%
11%
20%
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Puskas Academy
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.4
10.3
3.7
3.4
3.9
28.0
26.8
29.1
vs Stronger (4)
9.5
11.0
9.0
3.5
3.0
3.7
33.0
32.0
33.3
vs Similar (38)
10.3
9.4
11.1
3.7
3.3
4.0
27.2
25.0
29.4
vs Weaker (8)
7.8
8.7
6.5
3.8
4.2
3.2
29.0
34.3
21.0
% over line
56%
47%
65%
48%
39%
56%
79%
63%
95%
% under line
44%
53%
35%
52%
61%
44%
21%
37%
5%
This opponent (Debreceni VSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paks
10.8
Ujpest
9.9
Ferencvarosi TC
9.8
Kisvarda FC
9.8
Budapest Honved
9.7
MTK Budapest
9.6
Puskas Academy
9.6
Debreceni VSC
9.5
Gyori ETO FC
9.4
Zalaegerszegi TE
9.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Debreceni VSC
5.1
Paks
5.1
Zalaegerszegi TE
5.1
Ujpest
5.0
Gyori ETO FC
4.8
Puskas Academy
4.8
Ferencvarosi TC
4.6
Budapest Honved
4.4
MTK Budapest
4.3
Kisvarda FC
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Paks
28.3
Debreceni VSC
28.3
Puskas Academy
27.4
Ferencvarosi TC
27.4
Ujpest
25.7
Zalaegerszegi TE
25.0
MTK Budapest
24.4
Gyori ETO FC
24.2
Kisvarda FC
23.8
Budapest Honved
18.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.5%
Under 9.5
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.5%
Under 3.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.8%
Under 21.5
9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Debreceni VSC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.43
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.75
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.75
0.42
0.82
0.27
0.69
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Puskas Academy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.43
0.57
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.70
0.50
0.67
0.36
0.73
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
0.00
0.00
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Debreceni VSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Debreceni VSC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Debreceni VSC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Debreceni VSC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Debreceni VSC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.77
0.80
1.00
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.71
0.91
1.00
0.85
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Puskas Academy) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Puskas Academy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.64
0.93
0.69
0.50
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.78
0.67
0.83
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Debreceni VSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Debreceni VSC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Debreceni VSC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Debreceni VSC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puskas Academy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Hungary: NB I 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB I stats & trends →