Dečić are tipped to lift the trophy in a home win, the model’s pick, with a 52% chance of victory versus Arsenal Tivat’s 20% chance of an away win and a 28% chance of a draw. The match is expected to see 2.4 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.2% probability. Dečić’s home form shows they average 1.09 goals scored and 0.82 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Arsenal Tivat, playing away, averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against the same tier. Suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals at 77.1% and Over 1.5 goals at 71.2%. The home side’s recent form, a four-game winning streak, contrasts with Arsenal Tivat’s five-game losing run. These figures paint a picture of a tight contest where Dečić’s solidity at home gives them the edge.
Results analysis
The match finished 3-1 in favour of Dečić, extending their four-game winning streak at home. The model’s favourite, a home win at 52%, proved correct. The predicted total of 2.4 goals and the most likely score of 1-1 (27%) were not realised, but the model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, at 77.1%, missed, while its Over 1.5 choice, at 71.2%, hit. Dečić’s strong home form, averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.82 conceded, contrasted with Arsenal Tivat’s away struggles, averaging 1.1 scored and 1.5 conceded. Overall, the model’s call on the winner was accurate, though its goal-line picks were mixed.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dečić win✓ Hit
52.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat win✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dečić
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.70
1.29
0.86
1.56
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.26
0.78
1.09
0.82
1.42
0.75
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
0.43
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tivat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.63
1.38
1.44
0.86
1.86
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
2.14
0.75
1.50
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (20)
1.20
1.50
1.30
1.50
1.10
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.33
3.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.2%
Under 1.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
44.0%
Under 2.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.9%
Under 3.5
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.4%
No
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
12.4%
2-0
10.6%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.5%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
5.3%
Dečić goals ↓
Arsenal Tivat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.9%
6.5%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.3%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.3%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.5%
4.9%
2.1%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.2%
1.9%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dečić goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tivat goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.00
Dečić
1.94
Mornar
1.78
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Sutjeska
1.47
Jezero
1.42
Petrovac
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.17
Jedinstvo
1.03
Mladost DG
0.92
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.75
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Dečić is 0.78 points better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.83
Dečić
1.53
Otrant-Olympic
1.50
Sutjeska
1.28
Mornar
1.25
Jedinstvo
1.21
Arsenal Tivat
1.19
Petrovac
1.17
Jezero
1.14
Mladost DG
1.03
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.69
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Dečić is 0.33 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.19).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.75
Mornar
0.89
Otrant-Olympic
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Jezero
1.06
Petrovac
1.11
Buducnost Podgorica
1.19
Jedinstvo
1.50
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.50
Arsenal Tivat
1.61
Mladost DG
1.63
Dečić is 0.86 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dečić
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.27
0.50
0.21
0.69
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.30
0.55
0.18
0.58
0.42
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
0.14
0.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
80% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tivat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.93
0.94
0.75
0.50
1.14
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
1.14
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.85
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.00
2.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dečić
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.79
0.64
0.88
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.70
0.48
0.55
0.64
0.83
0.33
vs Weaker (7)
1.29
0.29
1.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arsenal Tivat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.44
0.69
0.36
0.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.65
0.40
0.70
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
Dečić's squad is €2m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€4m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Dečić and Arsenal Tivat have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
Dečić and Arsenal Tivat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
Dečić's defence is €1m more valuable than Arsenal Tivat's (€2m vs €0m).
Montenegro: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Mornar
Buducnost Podgorica
Sutjeska
Jezero
Petrovac
Jedinstvo
Mladost DG
Rudar (Montenegro)
Otrant-Olympic
Mladost Lješkopolje