Dečić vs Arsenal Tivat Result & Analysis

The model favours a home win for Dečić, with a 46% chance, while a draw sits at 30% and an Arsenal Tivat victory at 25%. The average number of goals expected is 2.3, and the most likely total is 2 goals, a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14% chance. Dečić, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.75 conceded. Arsenal Tivat, on the road against a similar side, averages 1.25 scored and 1.67 conceded. The model’s selection is Under 3.5 goals, with a 79% probability. These figures paint a picture of a tightly contested match where Dečić’s home advantage and defensive solidity give them the edge, yet Arsenal Tivat’s slightly higher scoring rate keeps the outcome uncertain.

The pre-match favourite, Home win, fell short as Dečić and Arsenal Tivat settled for a 0-0 draw, ending Dečić’s four-game winning run and leaving the match a complete upset. The model had given the home side a 46% chance of victory, but the outcome was a draw, so the model’s call was wrong. The only other selection was Under 3.5 goals, which the model predicted with a 79% probability and it hit. The final score of 0-0 matched the expected total of 2.3 goals, but the match produced no goals, confirming the under-3.5 hit. The game highlighted Arsenal Tivat’s struggle after a string of defeats, while Dečić’s form remained strong at home.