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Dečić vs Arsenal Tivat Result & Analysis

Date: 02/08/2026
Time: 18:00
Final 0-0
Dečić
Dečić
Vs
49%
28%
23%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

The model predicts a home win for Dečić against Arsenal Tivat, with a 49% probability of a Dečić win, 28% chance of a draw, and 23% likelihood of an Arsenal Tivat victory. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with a most likely score of 1-1 occurring 13.4% of the time.

Dečić has a strong home record, scoring 1.73 goals per game at home and conceding 0.91 goals, while Arsenal Tivat has a mediocre away record, scoring 1 goal per game and conceding 1.67 goals. The model suggests taking Under 3.5 goals, which has a 75.6% probability of occurring, and Over 1.5 goals, with a 72.7% chance and an edge of 4%. The home win percentage is 49%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 23%.

Results analysis

Dečić's 0-0 draw against Arsenal Tivat extends their run of consecutive wins at home. However, the model's selection, a Home win, was wrong as the actual result was a draw. The pre-match favourite, Dečić, had a 49% chance of winning. The model's call on a Home win was incorrect.

The model's selection on Under 3.5 goals also came to fruition, hitting with a 75.6% probability. In contrast, the model's selection on Over 1.5 goals missed, despite having a 72.7% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dečić win✗ Miss
49.3%
Avg Implied 57.2% · @ 1.59
Edge
-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.73
Betano
1.62
Dafabet
1.62
Superbet
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Draw✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.45
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.62
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Dafabet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.48
Arsenal Tivat win✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied 16.5% · @ 5.51
Edge
+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
5.90
Pinnacle
5.85
Marathonbet
5.80
BetVictor
5.50

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DečićDečić

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D12L42W01L00D11D30W03L12L01LH·BOK04/04A·MLA08/04H·JED12/04A·MOR18/04H·BUD26/04A·PET02/05H·JEZ10/05A·SUT16/05H·ARS20/05A·BOK24/05
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.131.471.070.871.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.751.250.891.110.641.36
vs Weaker (10)2.000.902.331.001.500.75
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W20W01L20W31W00D11D03L21W14LA·MLA04/04A·JED08/04H·MOR12/04A·BUD18/04H·PET26/04A·JEZ02/05H·SUT09/05A·BOK16/05A·DEČ20/05H·MLA24/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.330.931.001.001.67
vs Stronger (20)1.151.500.911.091.442.00
vs Similar (10)0.601.001.000.750.331.17
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
72.7%
@ 1.34+4.1%
Under 1.5
27.3%
@ 2.92-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.05
Betfair
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.88
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.8%
@ 2.08+1.6%
Under 2.5
54.2%
@ 1.65-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.15
Pinnacle
2.14
Superbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
Under
Pinnacle
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
BetVictor
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.4%
@ 3.69-0.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
@ 1.22+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
BetVictor
3.90
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.58
1xBet
3.58
Under
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.0%
@ 2.07+5.5%
No
50.0%
@ 1.65-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
BetVictor
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
No
William Hil
1.70
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Betfair
1.65
BetVictor
1.65

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 6.56+6.9%
1-0
11.3%@ 5.31+3.3%
2-0
9.6%@ 6.36+3.0%
0-0 ✓
9.4%@ 7.80+3.9%
2-1
9.3%@ 7.74+3.9%
0-1
6.7%@ 11.57+3.0%
1-2
5.9%@ 16.29+3.3%
3-0
4.9%@ 10.57+0.9%
Dečić goals ↓
Arsenal Tivat goals →
01234
09.4%6.7%3.8%1.2%0.3%
111%13%5.9%1.9%0.5%
29.6%9.3%4.5%1.5%0.4%
34.9%4.8%2.3%0.8%0.2%
41.9%1.8%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dečić goals (down), columns = Arsenal Tivat goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Sutjeska
2.00
Mornar
1.92
Dečić
1.42
Petrovac
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
1.33
Mladost DG
1.28
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Jezero
1.24
Bokelj
1.05
Otrant-Olympic
1.01
Dečić is 0.14 points better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.28).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Sutjeska
1.69
Mornar
1.42
Mladost DG
1.36
Petrovac
1.22
Jezero
1.21
Dečić
1.19
Bokelj
1.05
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
1.00
Otrant-Olympic
0.87
Dečić is 0.19 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals scored per game (1.19 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Mornar
0.81
Buducnost Podgorica
0.97
Sutjeska
1.00
Petrovac
1.00
Dečić
1.25
Bokelj
1.26
Arsenal Tivat
1.28
Jezero
1.29
Mladost DG
1.50
Otrant-Olympic
1.66
Dečić is 0.03 goals better than Arsenal Tivat in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DečićDečić

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L21W00D00D10W10W01L00D00DH·BOK04/04A·MLA08/04H·JED12/04A·MOR18/04H·BUD26/04A·PET02/05H·JEZ10/05A·SUT16/05H·ARS20/05A·BOK24/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.330.530.400.600.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.350.350.330.440.360.27
vs Weaker (10)1.000.300.830.331.250.25
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Arsenal Tivat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D10W10W00D00D01L00D03LA·MLA04/04A·JED08/04H·MOR12/04A·BUD18/04H·PET26/04A·JEZ02/05H·SUT09/05A·BOK16/05A·DEČ20/05H·MLA24/05
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.530.470.470.330.60
vs Stronger (20)0.400.550.360.550.440.56
vs Similar (10)0.400.500.750.250.170.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arsenal Tivat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.6%1.22
Superbet
1.23
Betano
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
+0.4%✓ Hit
Over 1.572.7%1.34
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Betfair
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
+4.1%✗ Miss

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BP (5)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 12. Games History

Head-to-head

Dečić vs Arsenal Tivat · H/A from DEČ
DateH/AGameScore
20/05/26HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat1-2
21/03/26AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ0-1
30/11/25HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat4-2
21/09/25AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ1-1
12/04/25AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ1-0
22/02/25HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0
06/10/24AArsenal Tivat Vs DEČ0-0
18/09/24HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat1-3

DečićDečić

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/05/26ABokelj Vs DEČ1-0
20/05/26HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat1-2
16/05/26ASutjeska Vs DEČ3-0
10/05/26HDEČ Vs Jezero3-0
02/05/26APetrovac Vs DEČ1-1
26/04/26HDEČ Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-0
18/04/26AMornar Vs DEČ1-0
12/04/26HDEČ Vs Jedinstvo4-2
08/04/26AMladost DG Vs DEČ2-1
04/04/26HDEČ Vs Bokelj0-0

Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/05/26HAT Vs Mladost DG1-4
20/05/26ADečić Vs AT1-2
16/05/26ABokelj Vs AT3-0
09/05/26HAT Vs Sutjeska1-1
02/05/26AJezero Vs AT0-0
26/04/26HAT Vs Petrovac3-1
18/04/26ABuducnost Podgorica Vs AT0-2
12/04/26HAT Vs Mornar0-1
08/04/26AJedinstvo Vs AT0-2
04/04/26AMladost DG Vs AT1-2

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL1.32
HomeDWDWL1.58
AwayLLDLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%42%25%
AVG goals2.402.622.17
Over 1.5 %66%65%67%
Over 2.5 %42%46%38%
Over 3.5 %22%31%12%
Scored1.161.460.83
Conceded1.241.151.33
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet28%35%21%
Corners14.0017.0011.00
Cards3.506.001.00
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWL1.26
HomeLLWDL1.62
AwayWWDLW0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%42%23%
AVG goals2.242.002.46
Over 1.5 %64%54%73%
Over 2.5 %36%33%38%
Over 3.5 %22%21%23%
Scored0.961.170.77
Conceded1.280.831.69
BTTS40%46%35%
Clean Sheet34%42%27%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić37
67%
2.3
30+3
1.0
33%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.00.0
-
2BokeljBokelj36
67%
2.0
21+1
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.70.3
-
3MornarMornar35
33%
1.7
32+1
1.7
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.7
-
4Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic34
33%
1.3
53+2
2.7
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.0
-
5PetrovacPetrovac34
33%
1.3
31+2
1.3
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.3
-
6Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica34
33%
1.3
12-1
1.0
33%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1120.30.7
-
7JezeroJezero34
33%
1.3
13-2
1.3
33%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.31.0
-
8Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat33
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.00.0
-
9Mladost DGMladost DG33
33%
1.0
45-1
3.0
67%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
10SutjeskaSutjeska30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.32.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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