In the upcoming match between Dečić and Bokelj, Dečić's defensive solidity will be crucial in securing a narrow win. The home side has been impressive at home, conceding an average of 1.1 goals against teams of similar strength. Dečić has also been scoring at a rate of 1 goal per match at home. Bokelj's away form is less convincing, with an average of 0.55 goals conceded and 0.36 goals scored against teams of similar strength.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 1.9 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a probability of 16.4%. The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 41%. The most likely correct score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.4%.
The model's suggested picks include Under 3.5 goals, with a probability of 87.7%, and Under 2.5 goals, with a probability of 70.7%. Dečić's home win percentage is 41%, the draw percentage is 34%, and the away win percentage is 25%.
Results analysis
The match saw Dečić extend a three-game winning run, while Bokelj returned from a draw. The Pythia model predicted a home win with a 41 % probability, and the outcome matched that call. The final score was 1-0, confirming the model’s pick. The model’s selections performed strongly: Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.1 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.5 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 95.4 %, Home +2 handicap at 91.8 %, Home under 2.5 goals at 90.2 %, Under 3.5 at 87.8 %, Away under 1.5 goals at 81.2 %, and Home or Draw at 75.1 %. All selections settled as hits, underscoring the model’s accuracy in this fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dečić win✓ Hit
41.0%
Avg Implied 63.2% · @ 1.44
Edge
-22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.50
Dafabet
1.46
Bet365
1.45
BetVictor
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Draw✗ Miss
34.1%
Avg Implied 24.7% · @ 3.67
Edge
+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.88
Dafabet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.72
1xBet
3.72
Bet365
3.70
Bokelj win✗ Miss
24.9%
Avg Implied 12.1% · @ 7.51
Edge
+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
9.50
BetVictor
8.00
Pinnacle
7.62
Dafabet
7.60
1xBet
7.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dečić
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.07
1.27
1.00
0.93
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.96
1.07
1.08
1.00
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bokelj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.93
1.40
1.20
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.67
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.96
1.04
1.46
1.38
0.42
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
57.4%
@ 1.48-4.2%
Under 1.5
42.6%
@ 2.37+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.50
Betfair
1.50
BetVictor
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Under
Pinnacle
2.45
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
BetVictor
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.1%
@ 2.47-8.2%
Under 2.5
70.9%
@ 1.47+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.53
Bet365
2.50
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
Under
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.2%
@ 4.84-6.7%
Under 3.5
87.8%
@ 1.13+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
1xBet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.70
Betano
4.05
Under
Betano
1.16
BetVictor
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
37.6%
@ 2.64+3.0%
No
62.4%
@ 1.40-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.63
Marathonbet
2.63
William Hil
2.60
No
1xBet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Betano
1.39
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.6%@ 6.56+10.1%
1-0 ✓
15.3%@ 4.05+4.9%
1-1
14.5%@ 7.58+8.9%
0-1
10.7%@ 12.67+7.4%
2-0
9.1%@ 5.04+0.7%
2-1
7.2%@ 8.83+2.4%
1-2
5.2%@ 25.50+3.5%
0-2
4.8%@ 46.00+3.8%
Dečić goals ↓
Bokelj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
11%
4.8%
1.3%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
5.2%
1.4%
0.3%
2
9.1%
7.2%
2.8%
0.7%
0.1%
3
3.3%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dečić goals (down), columns = Bokelj goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Dečić is 1.27 points better than Bokelj in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Dečić is 1.27 goals better than Bokelj in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 0.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Dečić is 0.30 goals better than Bokelj in terms of goals conceded per game (0.20 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dečić or Draw✓ Hit
75.1%
Avg Implied 87.3% · @ 1.06
Edge
-12.2%
41%
34%
25%
covers Dečić + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
Dečić or Bokelj✓ Hit
65.9%
Avg Implied 76.3% · @ 1.21
Edge
-10.4%
41%
34%
25%
covers Dečić + Bokelj
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Betfair
1.25
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.19
Draw or Bokelj✗ Miss
59.0%
Avg Implied 36.4% · @ 2.54
Edge
+22.6%
41%
34%
25%
covers Draw + Bokelj
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.75
10Bet
2.62
Betano
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
William Hil
2.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dečić over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.4%
@ 1.15-12.7%
Under
33.6%
@ 4.35+12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.15
Under
1xBet
4.35
Dečić over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
29.8%
@ 1.92-18.6%
Under
70.2%
@ 1.80+18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Dečić over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.8%
@ 6.60-4.1%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.06+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.60
Under
1xBet
1.06
Dečić over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
54.6%
@ 2.22+13.0%
Under
45.4%
@ 1.58-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.29
Betano
2.22
Marathonbet
2.18
1xBet
2.18
Under
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Bokelj over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
18.8%
@ 7.60+6.6%
Under
81.2%
@ 1.05-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.60
Under
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Bokelj over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.6%
Under
95.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dečić, so a minus line means Dečić give that many goals of a start and Bokelj receive them. At -1, Dečić must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dečić win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dečić)Actual: Bokelj
Dečić -2
5.4%
@ 4.95-12.3%
Draw -2
12.0%
@ 4.10-9.4%
Bokelj +2
82.6%
@ 1.44+21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.95
Draw
Marathonbet
4.10
Away
Marathonbet
1.44
Handicap -1 (Dečić)Actual: Draw
Dečić -1
17.4%
@ 2.49-18.1%
Draw -1
23.6%
@ 2.91-6.8%
Bokelj +1
59.0%
@ 2.59+24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.60
10Bet
2.45
Marathonbet
2.43
Draw
10Bet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.92
Betfair
2.80
Away
Betfair
2.70
10Bet
2.62
Marathonbet
2.46
Handicap +1 (Dečić)Actual: Dečić
Dečić +1
75.1%
@ 1.12+4.5%
Draw +1
16.7%
@ 4.25-1.9%
Bokelj -1
8.2%
@ 7.30-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.12
Draw
Marathonbet
4.25
Away
Marathonbet
7.30
Handicap +2 (Dečić)Actual: Dečić
Dečić +2
91.8%
Draw +2
6.3%
Bokelj -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dečić
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.30
0.40
0.40
0.60
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.44
0.30
0.31
0.38
0.57
0.21
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bokelj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.60
0.53
0.33
0.47
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.52
0.69
0.62
0.25
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dečić
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.77
0.87
0.60
0.33
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.78
0.77
0.62
0.29
0.93
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.67
1.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Bokelj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bokelj
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.43
0.80
0.67
0.27
0.20
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.48
0.52
0.77
0.77
0.17
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bokelj over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.2%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
87.8%
1.13
Betano
1.16
BetVictor
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+6.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
81.2%
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-
-
-
-6.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.1%
1.06
Betano
1.10
BetVictor
1.09
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.07
Betfair
1.05
-12.2%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.1%
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
70.9%
1.47
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
+8.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
70.2%
1.80
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
-
+18.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Dečić's squad is €2m more valuable than Bokelj's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Dečić and Bokelj have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Dečić and Bokelj have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Dečić's defence is €1m more valuable than Bokelj's (€2m vs €1m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →