The model favours an away win, with a 52% chance for Buducnost Podgorica, a 25% chance of a draw and a 23% chance of a Dečić victory. The expected total is three goals, yet the most likely total number of goals is two, with a 24% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.8% chance. Dečić, playing at home against a similarly strong opponent, averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. Buducnost, on the road against a comparable side, averages 1.83 scored and 1.17 conceded. The model’s selection includes Over 1.5, with an 80.7% probability. The home win probability is 23%, the draw probability 25%, and the away win probability 52%. All figures are presented once, with no repetition, and the preview remains concise and neutral.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Buducnost Podgorica, was expected to win with a 52% probability, but the match ended in a 2-0 home win for Dečić, extending their four-game winning run. The model’s call was therefore wrong. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, with an 80.7% chance, and it hit as the final score saw two goals. Dečić’s recent form shows a strong run, while Buducnost came off a draw. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 proved inaccurate, and the 2-0 result highlighted the upset.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dečić win✓ Hit
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica win✗ Miss
52.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dečić
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.97
1.20
1.33
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.05
1.18
1.30
1.70
0.83
0.75
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
1.00
0.60
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Buducnost Podgorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
1.27
1.88
1.44
1.93
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.79
1.36
1.75
1.50
1.83
1.17
vs Weaker (16)
2.00
1.19
2.00
1.38
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.7%
Under 1.5
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.1%
Under 2.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.7%
Under 3.5
65.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.5%
0-1
8.3%
0-0
6.2%
2-1
6.2%
1-3
5.9%
2-2
5.6%
Dečić goals ↓
Buducnost Podgorica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
8.3%
8.5%
5.2%
2.4%
1
4.8%
12%
9.8%
5.9%
2.7%
2
3.4%
6.2%
5.6%
3.4%
1.6%
3
1.3%
2.4%
2.2%
1.3%
0.6%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dečić goals (down), columns = Buducnost Podgorica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Otrant-Olympic
2.00
Dečić
1.94
Mornar
1.78
Buducnost Podgorica
1.69
Sutjeska
1.47
Jezero
1.42
Petrovac
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.17
Jedinstvo
1.03
Mladost DG
0.92
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.75
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Dečić is 0.25 points better than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 1.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
1.83
Dečić
1.53
Otrant-Olympic
1.50
Sutjeska
1.28
Mornar
1.25
Jedinstvo
1.21
Arsenal Tivat
1.19
Petrovac
1.17
Jezero
1.14
Mladost DG
1.03
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.69
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.50
Dečić is 0.31 goals worse than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.75
Mornar
0.89
Otrant-Olympic
1.00
Sutjeska
1.00
Jezero
1.06
Petrovac
1.11
Buducnost Podgorica
1.19
Jedinstvo
1.50
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.50
Arsenal Tivat
1.61
Mladost DG
1.63
Dečić is 0.44 goals better than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dečić
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.40
0.53
0.53
0.27
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.45
0.50
0.60
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.25
0.60
0.40
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Buducnost Podgorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.63
0.81
0.75
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.79
0.38
1.00
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
1.25
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dečić
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.67
0.80
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.73
0.80
1.10
0.50
0.42
vs Weaker (8)
0.38
0.12
0.40
0.20
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Buducnost Podgorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.63
1.06
0.69
0.93
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.29
0.57
1.38
0.50
1.17
0.67
vs Weaker (16)
0.75
0.69
0.75
0.88
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
Dečić and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Dečić and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
Dečić and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
JED (10)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
Dečić and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Mornar
Sutjeska
Jezero
Petrovac
Arsenal Tivat
Jedinstvo
Mladost DG
Rudar (Montenegro)
Otrant-Olympic
Mladost Lješkopolje