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Dečić vs Buducnost Podgorica Result & Analysis

Date: 27/09/2024
Time: 17:00
Final 0-2
Dečić
Dečić
Vs
32%
29%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Dečić and Budućnost Podgorica is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly scored match, and the most likely single scoreline is 1-1, a 14.1% chance. Dečić, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, while Budućnost, on the road, averages 0.71 scored and 1.14 conceded against similar opposition. The probabilities are 32% for a home victory, 29% for a draw, and 38% for an away win. The model’s selections include Under 3.5 with a 75.6% probability and Over 1.5 with 72.7%. No other pick is listed. The recent form shows Dečić on a four-game winning streak, whereas Budućnost comes off a draw, adding to the uncertainty. This balanced affair leaves the outcome open, with the model’s pick clearly pointing to an away triumph.

Results analysis

The win extends Dečić’s four-game winning run at home, while Budućnost Podgorica comes off a draw in their last outing. The model’s favourite was an away win, with a 38% probability, and it proved correct as the final score was 0-2 in favour of Budućnost. The most likely total of two goals hit the mark, and the model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 3.5, with a 75.6% chance, was hit, and Over 1.5, at 72.7%, also landed. The predicted 2-goal outcome matched the actual tally, confirming the model’s overall assessment.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dečić win✗ Miss
32.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica win✓ Hit
38.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DečićDečić

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L21W10W10W22D10W11D13L10WA·SUT04/08A·HJK08/08H·HJK15/08A·BOK18/08H·MOR21/08A·OTR25/08H·JEZ31/08A·JED14/09H·ARS18/09A·PET22/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.731.290.711.440.75
vs Stronger (2)0.502.001.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (24)1.250.671.170.671.330.67
vs Weaker (4)2.500.503.001.002.330.33
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L10W21W11D20W40W20W11D20W40WA·CSK25/07H·CSK01/08H·PET06/08H·SUT11/08A·ARS17/08H·BOK21/08A·MOR25/08H·OTR31/08A·JEZ15/09H·JED22/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.770.932.120.751.361.14
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.201.001.620.880.711.14
vs Weaker (15)2.330.872.620.622.001.14
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
Under 1.5
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.8%
Under 2.5
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.4%
Under 3.5
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-1
9.5%
0-0
9.4%
1-0
8.4%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.6%
0-2 ✓
7.1%
2-0
5.8%
Dečić goals ↓
Buducnost Podgorica goals →
01234
09.4%9.5%7.1%3.1%1.0%
18.4%14%8.4%3.7%1.2%
25.8%7.6%5.0%2.2%0.7%
32.3%3.0%2.0%0.9%0.3%
40.7%0.9%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dečić goals (down), columns = Buducnost Podgorica goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.36
Petrovac
1.67
Sutjeska
1.42
Dečić
1.33
Bokelj
1.22
Mornar
1.22
Arsenal Tivat
1.21
Jedinstvo
1.19
Jezero
1.18
Otrant-Olympic
0.97
Lovćen
0.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Dečić is 1.03 points worse than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 2.36).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.50
Petrovac
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.25
Otrant-Olympic
1.19
Sutjeska
1.11
Mornar
1.11
Jezero
0.97
Arsenal Tivat
0.95
Dečić
0.94
Bokelj
0.86
Lovćen
0.00
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Dečić is 1.56 goals worse than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 2.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Buducnost Podgorica
0.81
Dečić
0.86
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.00
Petrovac
1.03
Sutjeska
1.06
Jezero
1.16
Arsenal Tivat
1.24
Bokelj
1.39
Otrant-Olympic
1.47
Mornar
1.47
Jedinstvo
1.61
Lovćen
2.00
Dečić is 0.06 goals worse than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 0.81).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DečićDečić

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D11D00D10W00D10W10W12L00DA·SUT04/08A·HJK08/08H·HJK15/08A·BOK18/08H·MOR21/08A·OTR25/08H·JEZ31/08A·JED14/09H·ARS18/09A·PET22/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.330.570.290.440.38
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (24)0.460.250.670.250.250.25
vs Weaker (4)1.000.000.000.001.330.00
Clean sheet %77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L00D10W01L00D10W10W01L10W10WA·CSK25/07H·CSK01/08H·PET06/08H·SUT11/08A·ARS17/08H·BOK21/08A·MOR25/08H·OTR31/08A·JEZ15/09H·JED22/09
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.430.810.380.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.530.270.750.250.290.29
vs Weaker (15)0.800.600.880.500.710.71
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DečićDečić

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L10W10W00D22D00D01L01L10WA·SUT04/08A·HJK08/08H·HJK15/08A·BOK18/08H·MOR21/08A·OTR25/08H·JEZ31/08A·JED14/09H·ARS18/09A·PET22/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.400.710.431.000.38
vs Stronger (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (24)0.790.420.500.421.080.42
vs Weaker (4)1.500.503.001.001.000.33
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W11D10W20W30W10W10W10W30WA·CSK25/07H·CSK01/08H·PET06/08H·SUT11/08A·ARS17/08H·BOK21/08A·MOR25/08H·OTR31/08A·JEZ15/09H·JED22/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.501.310.380.860.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.670.730.880.620.430.86
vs Weaker (15)1.530.271.750.121.290.43
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
Dečić and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Dečić and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Dečić and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Dečić and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
3
DEČ wins
4
Draws
1
BP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dečić vs Buducnost Podgorica · H/A from DEČ
DateH/AGameScore
09/04/24HDEČ Vs Buducnost Podgorica1-1
18/02/24ABuducnost Podgorica Vs DEČ2-2
01/10/23HDEČ Vs Buducnost Podgorica2-0
09/08/23ABuducnost Podgorica Vs DEČ1-1
15/04/23HDEČ Vs Buducnost Podgorica4-3
23/02/23ABuducnost Podgorica Vs DEČ1-0
15/10/22HDEČ Vs Buducnost Podgorica0-0
07/08/22ABuducnost Podgorica Vs DEČ0-2

DečićDečić

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/24APetrovac Vs DEČ0-1
18/09/24HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat1-3
14/09/24AJedinstvo Vs DEČ1-1
31/08/24HDEČ Vs Jezero1-0
25/08/24AOtrant-Olympic Vs DEČ2-2
21/08/24HDEČ Vs Mornar1-0
18/08/24ABokelj Vs DEČ0-1
15/08/24HDEČ Vs HJK Helsinki2-1
08/08/24AHJK Helsinki Vs DEČ1-0
04/08/24ASutjeska Vs DEČ1-1

Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/24HBP Vs Jedinstvo4-0
15/09/24AJezero Vs BP0-2
31/08/24HBP Vs Otrant-Olympic1-1
25/08/24AMornar Vs BP0-2
21/08/24HBP Vs Bokelj4-0
17/08/24AArsenal Tivat Vs BP0-2
11/08/24HBP Vs Sutjeska1-1
06/08/24HBP Vs Petrovac2-1
01/08/24HBP Vs CSKA 19481-0
25/07/24ACSKA 1948 Vs BP1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLW1.86
HomeDWWWL1.75
AwayLWDDW1.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%50%54%
AVG goals2.182.292.08
Over 1.5 %66%67%65%
Over 2.5 %34%42%27%
Over 3.5 %22%29%15%
Scored1.381.381.38
Conceded0.800.920.69
BTTS44%50%38%
Clean Sheet44%33%54%
Corners---
Cards---
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW1.74
HomeWDWDW2.00
AwayLLWWW1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%58%42%
AVG goals2.883.122.62
Over 1.5 %82%85%79%
Over 2.5 %52%54%50%
Over 3.5 %36%38%33%
Scored1.822.121.50
Conceded1.061.001.12
BTTS52%54%50%
Clean Sheet32%38%25%
Corners7.007.007.00
Cards5.504.007.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3685
72%
2.4
9029+61
3.3
89%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1122.50.8
-
2PetrovacPetrovac3660
47%
1.7
5037+13
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.0
-
3SutjeskaSutjeska3651
39%
1.4
4038+2
2.2
75%
33%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.1
-
4DečićDečić3648
28%
1.3
3431+3
1.8
58%
22%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.90.9
-
5Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3846
29%
1.2
3647-11
2.2
66%
37%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.91.2
-
6JezeroJezero3845
29%
1.2
3744-7
2.1
63%
32%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.2
-
7MornarMornar3644
33%
1.2
4053-13
2.6
83%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.11.5
-
8BokeljBokelj3644
36%
1.2
3150-19
2.2
64%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.4
-
9JedinstvoJedinstvo3643
31%
1.2
4558-13
2.9
81%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic3635
25%
1.0
4353-10
2.7
67%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.5
-
11LovćenLovćen21
0%
0.5
04-4
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
12Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)20
0%
0.0
02-2
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
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Montenegro: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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