Defensive solidity will shape this tight encounter, as Dečić have kept just 0.86 goals per game at home while Buducnost Podgorica concede 1.38 away. The model favours a home win, with a 37% chance, followed by a 33% draw and a 30% away win. The expected total goals sit at 2.1, with the most probable total being two goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.8% probability. Dečić’s home form, against similarly ranked opponents, averages 1.21 goals scored, whereas Buducnost’s away form yields only 0.5 goals. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 5.5 (98.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5%), Under 4.5 (94.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.5%) and Home under 2.5 goals (90.2%). The home side’s recent four-game winning streak and a 2-1 victory over Jezero give them a slight edge, while Buducnost’s recent draw and 0-0 against Bokelj keep the contest close.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dečić win
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica win
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dečić
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.00
1.40
0.93
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.07
0.96
1.21
0.86
0.93
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.50
4.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Buducnost Podgorica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.97
1.07
0.87
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.64
1.00
0.83
0.50
0.50
1.38
vs Weaker (16)
1.00
0.94
1.22
1.11
0.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
62.5%
Under 1.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
34.2%
Under 2.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.5%
Under 3.5
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.8%
No
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.9%
0-0
14.0%
1-0
12.1%
0-1
11.3%
2-1
7.2%
2-0
7.2%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
6.3%
Dečić goals ↓
Buducnost Podgorica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
11%
6.3%
2.1%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.8%
2.3%
0.6%
2
7.2%
7.2%
3.6%
1.2%
0.3%
3
2.6%
2.6%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dečić goals (down), columns = Buducnost Podgorica goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
0.80
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Dečić is 1.60 points better than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Dečić is 1.20 goals better than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 0.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Dečić is 0.60 goals better than Buducnost Podgorica in terms of goals conceded per game (0.20 vs 0.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dečić or Draw
68.1%
Avg Implied -
35%
33%
32%
covers Dečić + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dečić or Buducnost Podgorica
67.1%
Avg Implied -
35%
33%
32%
covers Dečić + Buducnost Podgorica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
64.8%
Avg Implied -
35%
33%
32%
covers Draw + Buducnost Podgorica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dečić over/under 0.5
Over
65.5%
Under
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5
Over
28.8%
Under
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5
Over
9.3%
Under
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 3.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5
Over
63.3%
Under
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5
Over
26.5%
Under
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dečić, so a minus line means Dečić give that many goals of a start and Buducnost Podgorica receive them. At -1, Dečić must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dečić win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dečić)
Dečić -2
4.4%
Draw -2
10.1%
Buducnost Podgorica +2
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dečić)
Dečić -1
14.5%
Draw -1
20.7%
Buducnost Podgorica +1
64.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dečić)
Dečić +1
68.1%
Draw +1
19.4%
Buducnost Podgorica -1
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dečić)
Dečić +2
87.5%
Draw +2
8.9%
Buducnost Podgorica -2
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dečić
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.30
0.47
0.40
0.53
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.43
0.29
0.36
0.36
0.50
0.21
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Buducnost Podgorica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.40
0.60
0.27
0.13
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.21
0.57
0.33
0.17
0.12
0.88
vs Weaker (16)
0.50
0.25
0.78
0.33
0.14
0.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dečić
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.93
0.53
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.68
0.86
0.50
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Buducnost Podgorica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Buducnost Podgorica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.47
0.60
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.33
0.38
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.50
0.69
0.44
0.78
0.57
0.57
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Buducnost Podgorica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Dečić and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Dečić and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Dečić and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Dečić and Buducnost Podgorica have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Mornar
Bokelj
Otrant-Olympic
Petrovac
Jezero
Sutjeska
Arsenal Tivat
Mladost DG