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Dečić vs Mornar Result & Analysis

Date: 21/08/2024
Time: 18:00
Final 1-0
Dečić
Dečić
Vs
45%
30%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dečić win✓ Hit
44.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mornar win✗ Miss
25.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DečićDečić

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W31W03L11D20W00D11D01L21W10WA·SUT18/05H·ARS25/05A·THE09/07H·THE16/07A·DIN24/07H·DIN30/07A·SUT04/08A·HJK08/08H·HJK15/08A·BOK18/08
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.701.290.641.440.75
vs Stronger (2)0.502.001.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (23)1.170.651.000.551.330.75
vs Weaker (5)2.600.403.001.002.330.00
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W21W11D01L21W01L03L22D12LA·BUD18/05H·JEZ25/05H·DIN11/07A·DIN18/07A·RAD25/07H·RAD31/07H·OTR04/08A·PAK07/08H·PAK13/08H·JED17/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.031.500.691.141.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)1.261.041.500.671.001.45
vs Weaker (7)1.571.001.500.751.671.33
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%10%019%127%221%313%46%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
70.5%
Under 1.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
43.1%
Under 2.5
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
22.2%
Under 3.5
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
49.0%
No
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0 ✓
11.4%
0-0
10.3%
2-1
8.9%
2-0
8.8%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
4.6%
Dečić goals ↓
Mornar goals →
01234
010%7.8%4.6%1.5%0.4%
111%14%6.4%2.2%0.5%
28.8%8.9%4.5%1.5%0.4%
34.1%4.1%2.1%0.7%0.2%
41.4%1.4%0.7%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dečić goals (down), columns = Mornar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.36
Petrovac
1.67
Sutjeska
1.42
Dečić
1.33
Bokelj
1.22
Mornar
1.22
Arsenal Tivat
1.21
Jedinstvo
1.19
Jezero
1.18
Otrant-Olympic
0.97
Lovćen
0.50
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Dečić is 0.11 points better than Mornar in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Buducnost Podgorica
2.50
Petrovac
1.39
Jedinstvo
1.25
Otrant-Olympic
1.19
Sutjeska
1.11
Mornar
1.11
Jezero
0.97
Arsenal Tivat
0.95
Dečić
0.94
Bokelj
0.86
Lovćen
0.00
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.00
Dečić is 0.17 goals worse than Mornar in terms of goals scored per game (0.94 vs 1.11).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Buducnost Podgorica
0.81
Dečić
0.86
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.00
Petrovac
1.03
Sutjeska
1.06
Jezero
1.16
Arsenal Tivat
1.24
Bokelj
1.39
Otrant-Olympic
1.47
Mornar
1.47
Jedinstvo
1.61
Lovćen
2.00
Dečić is 0.61 goals better than Mornar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.47).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DečićDečić

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W03L01L00D00D01L00D11D00DA·SUT18/05H·ARS25/05A·THE09/07H·THE16/07A·DIN24/07H·DIN30/07A·SUT04/08A·HJK08/08H·HJK15/08A·BOK18/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.330.430.140.500.50
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.001.000.003.00
vs Similar (23)0.390.260.450.090.330.42
vs Weaker (5)1.000.000.500.001.330.00
Clean sheet %77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D20W01L00D10W01L00D11D01LA·BUD18/05H·JEZ25/05H·DIN11/07A·DIN18/07A·RAD25/07H·RAD31/07H·OTR04/08A·PAK07/08H·PAK13/08H·JED17/08
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.400.690.380.500.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.480.390.670.420.270.36
vs Weaker (7)1.000.430.750.251.330.67
Clean sheet %67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DečićDečić

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D00D10W20W00D10W01L10W10WA·SUT18/05H·ARS25/05A·THE09/07H·THE16/07A·DIN24/07H·DIN30/07A·SUT04/08A·HJK08/08H·HJK15/08A·BOK18/08
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.370.860.500.940.25
vs Stronger (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (23)0.780.390.550.451.000.33
vs Weaker (5)1.600.402.501.001.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W01L10W01L11D00D03L11D11DA·BUD18/05H·JEZ25/05H·DIN11/07A·DIN18/07A·RAD25/07H·RAD31/07H·OTR04/08A·PAK07/08H·PAK13/08H·JED17/08
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.630.810.310.641.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (23)0.780.650.830.250.731.09
vs Weaker (7)0.570.570.750.500.330.67
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.577.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.570.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
JED (17)
€1m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
Dečić and Mornar have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
JED (5)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
Dečić and Mornar have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
JED (2)
€0m
R( (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Dečić and Mornar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
JED (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
R( (2)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
Dečić and Mornar have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
DEČ wins
2
Draws
2
MOR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dečić vs Mornar · H/A from DEČ
DateH/AGameScore
27/04/24AMornar Vs DEČ1-1
03/03/24HDEČ Vs Mornar0-1
28/10/23AMornar Vs DEČ0-1
20/08/23HDEČ Vs Mornar3-1
05/04/23HDEČ Vs Mornar1-1
10/12/22AMornar Vs DEČ1-0
01/10/22HDEČ Vs Mornar3-1
24/07/22AMornar Vs DEČ0-1

DečićDečić

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/08/24ABokelj Vs DEČ0-1
15/08/24HDEČ Vs HJK Helsinki2-1
08/08/24AHJK Helsinki Vs DEČ1-0
04/08/24ASutjeska Vs DEČ1-1
30/07/24HDEČ Vs Dinamo Batumi0-0
24/07/24ADinamo Batumi Vs DEČ0-2
16/07/24HDEČ Vs The New Saints1-1
09/07/24AThe New Saints Vs DEČ3-0
25/05/24HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat3-1
18/05/24ASutjeska Vs DEČ0-1

MornarMornar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/24HMOR Vs Jedinstvo1-2
13/08/24HMOR Vs Paks2-2
07/08/24APaks Vs MOR3-0
04/08/24HMOR Vs Otrant-Olympic0-1
31/07/24HMOR Vs Radnicki 19232-1
25/07/24ARadnicki 1923 Vs MOR1-0
18/07/24ADinamo Tbilisi Vs MOR1-1
11/07/24HMOR Vs Dinamo Tbilisi2-1
25/05/24HMOR Vs Jezero1-0
18/05/24ABuducnost Podgorica Vs MOR0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWW1.80
HomeWWDDW1.75
AwayLWDLW1.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%50%50%
AVG goals2.142.381.92
Over 1.5 %68%75%62%
Over 2.5 %36%46%27%
Over 3.5 %18%25%12%
Scored1.361.461.27
Conceded0.780.920.65
BTTS40%46%35%
Clean Sheet46%33%58%
Corners---
Cards---
Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.70
HomeWWLDL1.88
AwayWWDLL1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%54%38%
AVG goals2.122.042.21
Over 1.5 %54%50%58%
Over 2.5 %36%38%33%
Over 3.5 %16%12%21%
Scored1.201.311.08
Conceded0.920.731.12
BTTS44%42%46%
Clean Sheet42%42%42%
Corners8.5011.006.00
Cards5.003.007.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica3685
72%
2.4
9029+61
3.3
89%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1122.50.8
-
2PetrovacPetrovac3660
47%
1.7
5037+13
2.4
67%
42%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.41.0
-
3SutjeskaSutjeska3651
39%
1.4
4038+2
2.2
75%
33%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.11.1
-
4DečićDečić3648
28%
1.3
3431+3
1.8
58%
22%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.90.9
-
5Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat3846
29%
1.2
3647-11
2.2
66%
37%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.91.2
-
6JezeroJezero3845
29%
1.2
3744-7
2.1
63%
32%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.2
-
7MornarMornar3644
33%
1.2
4053-13
2.6
83%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.11.5
-
8BokeljBokelj3644
36%
1.2
3150-19
2.2
64%
39%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.4
-
9JedinstvoJedinstvo3643
31%
1.2
4558-13
2.9
81%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.6
-
10Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic3635
25%
1.0
4353-10
2.7
67%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.5
-
11LovćenLovćen21
0%
0.5
04-4
2.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.02.0
-
12Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)20
0%
0.0
02-2
1.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.01.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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