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Dečić vs Mornar Prediction & Stats

Date: 20/09/2026
Time: 17:00
Dečić
Dečić
Vs
36%
32%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, as both sides have shown low scoring trends in recent fixtures. Dečić, at home, averages 0.75 goals for and 0.88 against against similar opposition, while Mornar, away, scores 1.44 and concedes 0.78. The model favours a home win, with a 36 % chance, followed by a 33 % draw and a 32 % away win. The expected total is 2.1 goals, centring on a 2-goal total with a 28 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.8 % chance. Dečić enters on a three-game winning streak, having beaten Otrant-Olympic 3-0, whereas Mornar comes off a two-game winning run, defeating Buducnost Podgorica 2-1. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.0 %), Under 5.5 (97.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5 %), Under 4.5 (93.7 %), Away under 2.5 goals (91.6 %), and Home under 2.5 goals (90.2 %).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Dečić win
36.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mornar win
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

DečićDečić

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D30W03L12L01L00D20W10W30W21WA·PET02/05H·JEZ10/05A·SUT16/05H·ARS20/05A·BOK24/05H·ARS02/08A·BUD08/08H·BOK17/08A·OTR23/08H·JEZ30/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.001.400.931.001.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.070.961.210.860.931.07
vs Weaker (2)3.001.504.002.002.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D11D20W00D00D32W21W11D20WH·BOK10/05A·BUD16/05H·PET20/05A·JEZ24/05A·JEZ02/08H·ARS07/08A·MLA16/08H·BUD21/08A·PET29/08H·BOK03/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.470.601.730.471.200.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.410.591.540.461.290.71
vs Weaker (3)2.000.673.000.500.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
64.2%
Under 1.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.9%
Under 2.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.7%
Under 3.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
44.2%
No
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.2%
1-0
11.9%
0-1
10.7%
2-1
7.5%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
6.1%
Dečić goals ↓
Mornar goals →
01234
013%11%6.1%2.1%0.5%
112%15%6.8%2.3%0.6%
27.4%7.5%3.8%1.3%0.3%
32.7%2.8%1.4%0.5%0.1%
40.8%0.8%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dečić goals (down), columns = Mornar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Sutjeska
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Dečić is 0.60 points better than Mornar in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Dečić is 0.27 goals better than Mornar in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 1.33).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Dečić is 0.47 goals better than Mornar in terms of goals conceded per game (0.20 vs 0.67).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dečić or Draw
68.7%
Avg Implied -
36%
32%
31%
covers Dečić + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dečić or Mornar
67.7%
Avg Implied -
36%
32%
31%
covers Dečić + Mornar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mornar
63.6%
Avg Implied -
36%
32%
31%
covers Draw + Mornar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dečić over/under 0.5
Over
67.2%
Under
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5
Over
30.7%
Under
69.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5
Over
63.8%
Under
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5
Over
27.0%
Under
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Dečić, so a minus line means Dečić give that many goals of a start and Mornar receive them. At -1, Dečić must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dečić win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dečić)
Dečić -2
4.8%
Draw -2
10.6%
Mornar +2
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dečić)
Dečić -1
15.4%
Draw -1
21.0%
Mornar +1
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dečić)
Dečić +1
68.7%
Draw +1
19.0%
Mornar -1
12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dečić)
Dečić +2
87.7%
Draw +2
8.8%
Mornar -2
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

DečićDečić

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W10W01L00D00D00D10W00D00D11DA·PET02/05H·JEZ10/05A·SUT16/05H·ARS20/05A·BOK24/05H·ARS02/08A·BUD08/08H·BOK17/08A·OTR23/08H·JEZ30/08
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.300.470.400.530.20
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.430.290.360.360.500.21
vs Weaker (2)1.500.502.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D10W00D00D22D20W10W20WH·BOK10/05A·BUD16/05H·PET20/05A·JEZ24/05A·JEZ02/08H·ARS07/08A·MLA16/08H·BUD21/08A·PET29/08H·BOK03/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.270.730.270.730.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.780.260.770.230.790.29
vs Weaker (3)0.330.330.500.500.000.00
Clean sheet %77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

DečićDečić

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W02L12L01L00D10W10W30W10WA·PET02/05H·JEZ10/05A·SUT16/05H·ARS20/05A·BOK24/05H·ARS02/08A·BUD08/08H·BOK17/08A·OTR23/08H·JEZ30/08
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.700.930.530.470.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.640.680.860.500.430.86
vs Weaker (2)1.501.002.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Mornar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MornarMornar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-100D00D11D10W00D00D10W01L01L00DH·BOK10/05A·BUD16/05H·PET20/05A·JEZ24/05A·JEZ02/08H·ARS07/08A·MLA16/08H·BUD21/08A·PET29/08H·BOK03/09
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.331.000.200.470.47
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.630.330.770.230.500.43
vs Weaker (3)1.670.332.500.000.001.00
Clean sheet %70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mornar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.599.8%-------
Under 6.599.4%-------
Away under 3.5 goals98.0%-------
Under 5.597.8%-------
Home under 3.5 goals97.3%-------
Under 4.593.5%-------
Away under 2.5 goals91.7%-------
Home under 2.5 goals89.7%-------
Home +2 handicap87.7%-------
Away +2 handicap84.6%-------
Under 3.583.3%-------
Away under 1.5 goals73.0%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Dečić and Mornar have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Dečić and Mornar have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Dečić and Mornar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Dečić and Mornar have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
DEČ wins
2
Draws
2
MOR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Dečić vs Mornar · H/A from DEČ
DateH/AGameScore
18/04/26AMornar Vs DEČ1-0
25/02/26HDEČ Vs Mornar0-0
18/10/25AMornar Vs DEČ1-0
17/08/25HDEČ Vs Mornar2-1
26/04/25AMornar Vs DEČ0-2
02/03/25HDEČ Vs Mornar2-0
23/10/24AMornar Vs DEČ1-1
21/08/24HDEČ Vs Mornar1-0

DečićDečić

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26HDEČ Vs Jezero2-1
23/08/26AOtrant-Olympic Vs DEČ0-3
17/08/26HDEČ Vs Bokelj1-0
08/08/26ABuducnost Podgorica Vs DEČ0-2
02/08/26HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0
24/05/26ABokelj Vs DEČ1-0
20/05/26HDEČ Vs Arsenal Tivat1-2
16/05/26ASutjeska Vs DEČ3-0
10/05/26HDEČ Vs Jezero3-0
02/05/26APetrovac Vs DEČ1-1

MornarMornar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/26HMOR Vs Bokelj2-0
29/08/26APetrovac Vs MOR1-1
21/08/26HMOR Vs Buducnost Podgorica2-1
16/08/26AMladost DG Vs MOR2-3
07/08/26HMOR Vs Arsenal Tivat0-0
02/08/26AJezero Vs MOR0-0
24/05/26AJezero Vs MOR0-2
20/05/26HMOR Vs Petrovac1-1
16/05/26ABuducnost Podgorica Vs MOR0-0
10/05/26HMOR Vs Bokelj0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Dečić
Dečić
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.44
HomeWLDWW1.69
AwayDLLWW1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%46%29%
AVG goals2.442.622.25
Over 1.5 %68%65%71%
Over 2.5 %46%50%42%
Over 3.5 %22%31%12%
Scored1.241.500.96
Conceded1.201.121.29
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet32%38%25%
Corners14.0017.0011.00
Cards3.506.001.00
Mornar
Mornar
Montenegro: First League
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDW1.76
HomeDDDWW1.96
AwayDWDWD1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%56%44%
AVG goals2.242.322.16
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %46%48%44%
Over 3.5 %14%20%8%
Scored1.321.561.08
Conceded0.920.761.08
BTTS44%44%44%
Clean Sheet40%44%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1DečićDečić513
80%
2.6
81+7
1.8
60%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.60.2
-
2MornarMornar612
50%
2.0
84+4
2.0
67%
33%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.30.7
-
3BokeljBokelj68
33%
1.3
23-1
0.8
17%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.30.5
-
4Otrant-OlympicOtrant-Olympic57
40%
1.4
77+0
2.8
80%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.4
-
5PetrovacPetrovac56
20%
1.2
42+2
1.2
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.80.4
-
6Buducnost PodgoricaBuducnost Podgorica55
20%
1.0
24-2
1.2
40%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1120.40.8
-
7JezeroJezero55
20%
1.0
25-3
1.4
40%
40%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.41.0
-
8SutjeskaSutjeska54
20%
0.8
67-1
2.6
40%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.21.4
-
9Arsenal TivatArsenal Tivat54
0%
0.8
12-1
0.6
20%
20%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1000.20.4
-
10Mladost DGMladost DG54
20%
0.8
510-5
3.0
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.02.0
-
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →

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