Dečić and Otrant-Olympic face a finely balanced clash, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are 41% for Dečić, 28% for a draw and 30% for Otrant-Olympic. The expected total is 2.6 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.6% chance. Dečić, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.21 goals scored and 0.86 conceded, while Otrant-Olympic, on the road, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.89 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Under 5.5 (94.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (88.0%), Under 4.5 (87.2%) and Home +2 handicap (87.0%). Dečić are on a four-game winning run, having beaten Jezero 2-1, while Otrant-Olympic return from a win, beating Arsenal Tivat 2-1. The match promises tight competition with both sides capable of turning the tide.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dečić win
42.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic win
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dečić
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.00
1.40
0.93
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.07
0.96
1.21
0.86
0.93
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.50
4.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Otrant-Olympic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.00
2.29
1.00
1.81
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
2.19
0.94
2.43
1.00
2.00
0.89
vs Weaker (14)
1.86
1.07
2.14
1.00
1.57
1.14
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
49.3%
Under 2.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
27.4%
Under 3.5
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
54.5%
No
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
0-0
8.3%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
7.3%
0-1
7.2%
2-2
5.3%
Dečić goals ↓
Otrant-Olympic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
7.2%
5.0%
2.0%
0.6%
1
9.2%
14%
7.3%
2.9%
0.8%
2
7.6%
9.0%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.7%
4.4%
2.6%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dečić goals (down), columns = Otrant-Olympic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Sutjeska
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Dečić is 1.20 points better than Otrant-Olympic in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Dečić is 0.20 goals better than Otrant-Olympic in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Dečić is 1.20 goals better than Otrant-Olympic in terms of goals conceded per game (0.20 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dečić or Draw
70.7%
Avg Implied -
42%
28%
29%
covers Dečić + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dečić or Otrant-Olympic
71.7%
Avg Implied -
42%
28%
29%
covers Dečić + Otrant-Olympic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Otrant-Olympic
57.6%
Avg Implied -
42%
28%
29%
covers Draw + Otrant-Olympic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dečić over/under 0.5
Over
76.9%
Under
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5
Over
43.0%
Under
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5
Over
18.2%
Under
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 3.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5
Over
69.3%
Under
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5
Over
33.1%
Under
66.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 3.5
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dečić, so a minus line means Dečić give that many goals of a start and Otrant-Olympic receive them. At -1, Dečić must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dečić win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dečić)
Dečić -2
8.2%
Draw -2
13.1%
Otrant-Olympic +2
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dečić)
Dečić -1
21.3%
Draw -1
21.1%
Otrant-Olympic +1
57.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dečić)
Dečić +1
70.7%
Draw +1
16.8%
Otrant-Olympic -1
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dečić)
Dečić +2
87.5%
Draw +2
8.5%
Otrant-Olympic -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dečić
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.30
0.47
0.40
0.53
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.43
0.29
0.36
0.36
0.50
0.21
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Otrant-Olympic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.33
1.29
0.21
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.19
0.25
1.43
0.00
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.43
1.14
0.43
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dečić
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.93
0.53
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.68
0.86
0.50
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Otrant-Olympic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Otrant-Olympic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.00
0.79
0.94
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.69
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.64
1.00
0.57
0.86
0.71
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Otrant-Olympic over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Dečić's squad is €2m more valuable than Otrant-Olympic's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Dečić and Otrant-Olympic have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Dečić and Otrant-Olympic have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Dečić's defence is €1m more valuable than Otrant-Olympic's (€2m vs €1m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Mornar
Bokelj
Petrovac
Buducnost Podgorica
Jezero
Sutjeska
Arsenal Tivat
Mladost DG