Defensive solidity will shape this encounter, as both sides average fewer than a goal per game against similar opposition. The model projects a home win with 40 % confidence, a draw 33 %, and an away win 27 %. The most likely outcome is a 0-0 stalemate, carrying a 14.8 % chance, while the expected total of goals is 2.0, with a 28 % probability of exactly two goals. De Čić, at home, scores 0.75 and concedes 0.88 per match, whereas Petrovac, away, scores 0.5 and concedes 0.9. The suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7 %), Under 5.5 (98.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.3 %), Under 4.5 (94.7 %), Away under 2.5 goals (94.0 %) and Home +2 handicap (90.3 %). De Čić’s recent three-game winning run and Petrovac’s last draw hint at a tightly contested, low-scoring affair.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dečić win
40.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Petrovac win
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dečić
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.00
1.40
0.93
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
1.07
0.96
1.21
0.86
0.93
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.50
4.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrovac
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.97
1.25
0.75
0.79
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.03
0.97
1.25
0.75
0.79
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
61.6%
Under 1.5
38.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
33.2%
Under 2.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
14.9%
Under 3.5
85.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.4%
No
58.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
14.5%
1-0
13.7%
0-1
10.3%
2-0
8.6%
2-1
7.6%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
5.2%
Dečić goals ↓
Petrovac goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
10%
5.2%
1.5%
0.3%
1
14%
15%
5.9%
1.8%
0.4%
2
8.6%
7.6%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
3
3.3%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dečić goals (down), columns = Petrovac goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Dečić
2.60
Mornar
2.00
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Bokelj
1.33
Petrovac
1.20
Buducnost Podgorica
1.00
Jezero
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
0.80
Sutjeska
0.80
Mladost DG
0.80
Dečić is 1.40 points better than Petrovac in terms of average points per game (2.60 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dečić
1.60
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mornar
1.33
Sutjeska
1.20
Mladost DG
1.00
Petrovac
0.80
Buducnost Podgorica
0.40
Jezero
0.40
Bokelj
0.33
Arsenal Tivat
0.20
Dečić is 0.80 goals better than Petrovac in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Dečić
0.20
Arsenal Tivat
0.40
Petrovac
0.40
Bokelj
0.50
Mornar
0.67
Buducnost Podgorica
0.80
Jezero
1.00
Sutjeska
1.40
Otrant-Olympic
1.40
Mladost DG
2.00
Dečić is 0.20 goals better than Petrovac in terms of goals conceded per game (0.20 vs 0.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dečić or Draw
73.0%
Avg Implied -
40%
33%
27%
covers Dečić + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dečić or Petrovac
67.1%
Avg Implied -
40%
33%
27%
covers Dečić + Petrovac
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Petrovac
59.9%
Avg Implied -
40%
33%
27%
covers Draw + Petrovac
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dečić over/under 0.5
Over
68.1%
Under
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5
Over
31.6%
Under
68.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5
Over
10.8%
Under
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 3.5
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 0.5
Over
58.9%
Under
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 1.5
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 2.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dečić, so a minus line means Dečić give that many goals of a start and Petrovac receive them. At -1, Dečić must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dečić win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dečić)
Dečić -2
5.6%
Draw -2
11.8%
Petrovac +2
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dečić)
Dečić -1
17.5%
Draw -1
22.7%
Petrovac +1
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dečić)
Dečić +1
73.0%
Draw +1
17.3%
Petrovac -1
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dečić)
Dečić +2
90.4%
Draw +2
7.2%
Petrovac -2
2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dečić
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.30
0.47
0.40
0.53
0.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.43
0.29
0.36
0.36
0.50
0.21
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrovac
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.4
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.43
0.50
0.50
0.14
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.33
0.43
0.50
0.50
0.14
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.0%
Under 0.5
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.5%
Under 1.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
8.5%
Under 2.5
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 HT
Over
45.3%
Under
54.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.5%
Under
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dečić
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.70
0.93
0.53
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.64
0.68
0.86
0.50
0.43
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Petrovac) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Petrovac
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.75
0.25
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.70
0.53
0.75
0.25
0.64
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Dečić) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.5%
Under 0.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.5%
Under 1.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.6%
Under 2.5
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dečić over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.9%
Under
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dečić over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.1%
Under
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Petrovac over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (23)
€5m
MOR (23)
€4m
PET (18)
€4m
DEČ (19)
€4m
BP (21)
€3m
MD (23)
€3m
BOK (18)
€2m
OTR (10)
€2m
AT (14)
€1m
JEZ (17)
€1m
Dečić and Petrovac have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BP (6)
€1m
MOR (8)
€1m
MD (8)
€1m
AT (5)
€1m
OTR (4)
€1m
BOK (6)
€1m
JEZ (8)
€0m
Dečić and Petrovac have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PET (5)
€1m
BP (5)
€1m
MOR (4)
€1m
SUT (5)
€1m
DEČ (3)
€1m
MD (5)
€1m
BOK (4)
€0m
AT (4)
€0m
OTR (1)
€0m
JEZ (2)
€0m
Dečić and Petrovac have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MOR (11)
€2m
SUT (9)
€2m
DEČ (8)
€2m
BP (10)
€2m
PET (8)
€2m
MD (10)
€1m
BOK (8)
€1m
JEZ (7)
€1m
OTR (5)
€1m
AT (5)
€0m
Dečić and Petrovac have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Montenegro: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Mornar
Bokelj
Otrant-Olympic
Buducnost Podgorica
Jezero
Sutjeska
Arsenal Tivat
Mladost DG