Den Bosch will be looking to extend a recent win streak, but Vitesse’s away form suggests a narrow edge for the visitors. The model favours an away win, with a 38% chance of victory, a 25% chance of a draw and a 37% chance of a home win. The expected total goals hover at 3.2, with the most likely total being three goals at a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.5% chance. Den Bosch averages 1.93 goals scored and 1.36 conceded at home against similar opposition, while Vitesse scores 1.46 and concedes 1.23 on the road. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.1%) with a 2% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.2%) with a 5% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.8%) with a 5% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.2%) with a 7% edge, Under 6.5 (95.0%) with a 4% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.6%) with a 5% edge, Home under 3.5 goals (91.5%) with a 4% edge and Away under 3.5 goals (91.5%) with a 4% edge.
Results analysis
The model’s prediction proved accurate as Vitesse secured a 1-4 away win, extending their recent winning streak. The pre-match favourite, Away win, was chosen with a 39% probability and was correct. The most likely scoreline of 1-2 fell short of the 1-4 result, but the total goals hit the 3-goal range, matching the model’s expectation. Among the suggested picks, Under 7.5 goals hit with 98.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.8%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.2%, Under 6.5 hit at 95.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 94.6%, and Home under 3.5 goals hit at 91.5%. The only misses were Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.2% and Away under 3.5 goals at 91.5%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Den Bosch win✗ Miss
35.8%
Avg Implied 33.4% · @ 2.78
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.90
Bet365
2.90
BetVictor
2.88
Betano
2.87
Superbet
2.85
Draw✗ Miss
25.7%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.85
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.27
Betfair
4.00
Dafabet
3.95
10Bet
3.90
Bet365
3.90
Vitesse win✓ Hit
38.5%
Avg Implied 42.5% · @ 2.18
Edge
-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
2.45
SBO
2.22
Dafabet
2.21
Unibet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Den Bosch
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.87
1.76
1.53
1.54
2.31
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.25
1.00
2.33
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.72
1.84
1.92
1.38
1.50
2.33
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vitesse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.37
1.56
1.56
1.50
1.14
vs Stronger (3)
2.33
0.33
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
1.44
1.48
1.43
1.71
1.46
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Den Bosch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.3%
@ 1.11-0.4%
Under 1.5
16.7%
@ 5.71+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Under
Betfair
6.50
Pinnacle
6.22
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
61.1%
@ 1.41-4.7%
Under 2.5
38.9%
@ 2.71+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.44
Betano
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.42
Under
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.87
10Bet
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.70
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.7%
@ 2.05-6.8%
Under 3.5
61.3%
@ 1.72+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
10Bet
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.06
Superbet
2.05
Under
Betfair
1.75
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.0%
@ 1.39-2.8%
No
36.0%
@ 2.79+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
No
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
1xBet
2.81
Unibet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%@ 7.83+5.9%
1-2
8.5%@ 8.69+3.3%
2-1
8.2%@ 9.85+3.6%
2-2
6.6%@ 10.29+2.2%
0-1
5.8%@ 12.23+2.1%
1-0
5.5%@ 13.75+2.2%
0-2
5.5%@ 13.54+2.2%
0-0
5.3%@ 17.65+2.8%
Den Bosch goals ↓
Vitesse goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.3%
5.8%
5.5%
3.0%
1.2%
1
5.5%
12%
8.5%
4.6%
1.8%
2
5.1%
8.2%
6.6%
3.5%
1.4%
3
2.6%
4.2%
3.4%
1.8%
0.7%
4
1.0%
1.6%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Den Bosch goals (down), columns = Vitesse goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Den Bosch is 0.20 points worse than Vitesse in terms of average points per game (1.27 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Den Bosch is 0.01 goals worse than Vitesse in terms of goals scored per game (1.68 vs 1.68).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Den Bosch is 0.43 goals worse than Vitesse in terms of goals conceded per game (1.88 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Den Bosch is 0.9 percentage points better than Vitesse in terms of average possession (47% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Den Bosch
For 4.4 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 11.5 · Total 21.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Vitesse
For 5.2 · Against 4.2 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 13.3 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Den Bosch
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
11.7
12.4
3.3
3.1
3.6
23.3
21.8
25.0
vs Stronger (8)
12.4
11.8
13.3
2.4
2.2
2.7
22.8
23.0
22.3
vs Similar (41)
11.9
11.5
12.2
3.5
3.3
3.7
23.6
21.7
25.4
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
15.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
% over line
74%
76%
73%
42%
38%
46%
62%
52%
73%
% under line
26%
24%
27%
58%
62%
54%
38%
48%
27%
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vitesse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.8
9.8
4.4
4.6
4.2
26.9
27.2
26.7
vs Stronger (5)
9.8
10.3
9.0
4.4
4.7
4.0
26.0
29.0
21.5
vs Similar (44)
9.9
9.7
10.1
4.4
4.6
4.2
27.3
26.9
27.7
vs Weaker (1)
4.0
-
4.0
3.0
-
3.0
16.0
-
16.0
% over line
56%
58%
54%
64%
72%
56%
90%
88%
92%
% under line
44%
42%
46%
36%
28%
44%
10%
12%
8%
This opponent (Den Bosch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.1
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.7
Dordrecht
11.6
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Jong PSV U21
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Helmond Sport
10.6
Jong AZ
10.5
Jong Ajax
10.5
FC Volendam
10.4
FC Eindhoven
10.4
Emmen
10.3
MVV
10.3
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
10.0
NAC Breda
9.8
Vitesse
9.7
Jong Utrecht
9.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Jong Ajax
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Emmen
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Jong AZ
3.4
Helmond Sport
3.3
Roda
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
MVV
3.2
Jong PSV U21
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Almere City FC
3.0
Jong Utrecht
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.9
Emmen
25.9
Dordrecht
25.8
Jong Utrecht
25.6
Helmond Sport
25.6
Jong Ajax
25.1
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
Jong PSV U21
23.9
VVV Venlo
23.8
Jong AZ
23.6
Den Bosch
23.2
NAC Breda
23.2
De Graafschap
22.8
MVV
22.7
FC Eindhoven
22.6
Waalwijk
22.5
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.2%
@ 1.54+0.3%
Under 9.5
39.8%
@ 2.30-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.59
Superbet
1.56
Unibet
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Under
Betano
2.42
Marathonbet
2.34
Superbet
2.30
Unibet
2.28
Pinnacle
2.26
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.7%
Under 3.5
51.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
68.3%
Under 21.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Den Bosch or Draw✗ Miss
62.5%
Avg Implied 57.7% · @ 1.62
Edge
+4.8%
36%
26%
39%
covers Den Bosch + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.72
Betfair
1.67
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Den Bosch or Vitesse✓ Hit
74.9%
Avg Implied 75.9% · @ 1.23
Edge
-1.0%
36%
26%
39%
covers Den Bosch + Vitesse
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Draw or Vitesse✓ Hit
62.6%
Avg Implied 66.5% · @ 1.41
Edge
-3.9%
36%
26%
39%
covers Draw + Vitesse
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.44
William Hil
1.40
Bet365
1.40
SBO
1.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Den Bosch over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.7%
@ 1.18+2.1%
Under
19.3%
@ 4.32-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
Under
10Bet
4.75
Betfair
4.50
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.20
Den Bosch over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
48.9%
@ 1.94+1.0%
Under
51.1%
@ 1.78-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Pinnacle
1.98
1xBet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.97
Under
10Bet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.78
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Den Bosch over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.8%
@ 3.96-0.6%
Under
77.2%
@ 1.21+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.10
Pinnacle
4.06
1xBet
4.05
Betfair
4.00
Under
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Den Bosch over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.5%
@ 8.52-2.5%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.05+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
8.50
Superbet
8.50
Betano
7.90
1xBet
6.70
Under
1xBet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Vitesse over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.7%
@ 1.13-1.3%
Under
19.3%
@ 5.16+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
Under
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Betfair
5.50
1xBet
5.25
Superbet
5.00
Vitesse over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
48.9%
@ 1.70-5.7%
Under
51.1%
@ 2.05+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.72
Superbet
1.72
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
Betfair
2.10
BetVictor
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Vitesse over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
22.8%
@ 3.20-6.1%
Under
77.2%
@ 1.30+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.55
Pinnacle
3.33
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Under
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Vitesse over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
8.5%
@ 6.50-5.8%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.09+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.60
Superbet
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Den Bosch, so a minus line means Den Bosch give that many goals of a start and Vitesse receive them. At -1, Den Bosch must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Den Bosch win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Den Bosch)Actual: Vitesse
Den Bosch -2
7.9%
@ 9.74-1.2%
Draw -2
11.4%
@ 7.11-1.0%
Vitesse +2
80.7%
@ 1.12+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
12.00
Bet365
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Away
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Handicap -1 (Den Bosch)Actual: Vitesse
Den Bosch -1
19.3%
@ 4.94+1.2%
Draw -1
18.1%
@ 4.71-0.9%
Vitesse +1
62.6%
@ 1.43-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.05
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.80
10Bet
4.33
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
Marathonbet
4.70
Unibet
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Away
10Bet
1.53
Unibet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Handicap +1 (Den Bosch)Actual: Vitesse
Den Bosch +1
62.5%
@ 1.61+7.1%
Draw +1
18.1%
@ 4.27-2.8%
Vitesse -1
19.4%
@ 3.78-4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Betfair
1.62
Unibet
1.58
Draw
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
Away
10Bet
4.33
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Handicap +2 (Den Bosch)Actual: Vitesse
Den Bosch +2
80.6%
@ 1.22+7.3%
Draw +2
11.4%
@ 6.12-3.2%
Vitesse -2
7.9%
@ 7.47-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Draw
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Marathonbet
6.05
Unibet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Away
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Betfair
7.50
Superbet
7.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Den Bosch
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.94
0.59
0.46
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.33
1.67
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.76
0.68
1.08
0.31
0.42
1.08
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vitesse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
1.06
0.50
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.33
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.85
0.59
1.00
0.50
0.69
0.69
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Den Bosch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.2%
@ 1.21-1.1%
Under 0.5
24.8%
@ 3.91+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Under
William Hil
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.5%
@ 2.05-6.0%
Under 1.5
60.5%
@ 1.71+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.13
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Betfair
1.73
William Hil
1.73
Superbet
1.70
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
13.3%
@ 4.34-8.0%
Under 2.5
86.7%
@ 1.18+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Betano
4.30
1xBet
4.25
Under
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Den Bosch over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
48.5%
@ 1.82-2.7%
Under
51.5%
@ 1.90+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Pinnacle
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
1.95
Unibet
1.91
Betano
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Den Bosch over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.0%
@ 5.05-5.4%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.14+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.35
Betano
5.10
Superbet
5.10
10Bet
4.33
Under
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Den Bosch over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
3.2%
@ 13.00-4.1%
Under
96.8%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
11.00
Under
10Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Vitesse over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.8%
@ 1.68-5.3%
Under
50.2%
@ 2.07+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Superbet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.19
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Vitesse over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
12.7%
@ 4.31-8.9%
Under
87.3%
@ 1.18+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.40
1xBet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Betano
4.20
Superbet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
Vitesse over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
2.8%
@ 11.17-5.6%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.03+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
12.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Den Bosch
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.10
0.82
0.94
1.08
1.31
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.96
1.16
0.85
1.08
1.08
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Vitesse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vitesse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.50
1.06
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.89
0.43
1.21
0.77
0.54
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Den Bosch) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.7%
@ 1.12-0.2%
Under 0.5
17.3%
@ 5.43+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
Under
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.60
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.35
Superbet
5.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
49.0%
@ 1.63-8.1%
Under 1.5
51.0%
@ 2.17+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.65
Superbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.25
Bet365
2.20
1xBet
2.16
Marathonbet
2.16
Unibet
2.15
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
21.4%
@ 2.92-10.3%
Under 2.5
78.6%
@ 1.36+10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.85
1xBet
2.85
Under
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Den Bosch over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
52.2%
@ 1.56-7.1%
Under
47.8%
@ 2.28+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.57
10Bet
1.53
Under
10Bet
2.35
Betano
2.30
1xBet
2.26
Superbet
2.22
Den Bosch over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.3%
@ 3.69-5.7%
Under
80.7%
@ 1.23+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.82
Superbet
3.80
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Under
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Den Bosch over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.8%
@ 9.31-6.1%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.03+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Superbet
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Vitesse over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
60.5%
@ 1.48-2.3%
Under
39.5%
@ 2.49+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.53
Superbet
1.48
1xBet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Under
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.47
10Bet
2.35
Vitesse over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.5%
@ 3.21-9.3%
Under
80.5%
@ 1.30+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.55
Superbet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.14
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.25
Vitesse over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.4%
@ 8.05-6.2%
Under
94.6%
@ 1.05+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
9.00
1xBet
8.40
Superbet
8.00
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.1%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
10Bet
1.02
-
-
+5.6%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.8%
1.02
10Bet
1.02
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.0%
1.04
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.5%
1.05
1xBet
1.06
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Superbet
1.04
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.5%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
+5.8%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5
88.4%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.3%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
+8.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.14
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.18
BetVictor
1.17
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
83.3%
1.11
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Pinnacle
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.11
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.7%
1.12
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
80.7%
1.12
Betfair
1.13
Unibet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
80.7%
1.13
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
Betfair
1.13
-1.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.7%
1.23
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.7%
1.18
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
BetVictor
1.18
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
80.6%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
+7.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
80.5%
1.30
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
10Bet
1.25
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.6%
1.36
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.34
+10.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
77.2%
1.21
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.23
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
77.2%
1.30
Betano
1.35
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
+6.1%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
76.5%
1.29
Pinnacle
1.31
Betano
1.31
Betfair
1.30
10Bet
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
+4.3%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.2%
1.21
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
-1.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
74.9%
1.23
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.24
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.0%
1.31
Superbet
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.26
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Den Bosch
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sebastian Karlsson Grach50%
Kévin Monzialo25%
Ilias Boumassaoudi25%
Devon De Corte25%
Sheddy Barglan25%
Kevin Felida0%
Jeffrey Fortes0%
Jasper Van Heertum0%
Stan Maas0%
Pepijn van de Merbel0%
Mees Laros0%
Bohao Wang0%
Hessel Eikelboom0%
Rafi Wolters0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Kevin Felida50%
Jeffrey Fortes0%
Jasper Van Heertum0%
Kévin Monzialo0%
Stan Maas0%
Pepijn van de Merbel0%
Sebastian Karlsson Grach0%
Ilias Boumassaoudi0%
Mees Laros0%
Bohao Wang0%
Devon De Corte0%
Hessel Eikelboom0%
Rafi Wolters0%
Sheddy Barglan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kévin Monzialo50%
Mees Laros25%
Devon De Corte25%
Sheddy Barglan25%
Kevin Felida0%
Jeffrey Fortes0%
Jasper Van Heertum0%
Stan Maas0%
Pepijn van de Merbel0%
Sebastian Karlsson Grach0%
Ilias Boumassaoudi0%
Bohao Wang0%
Hessel Eikelboom0%
Rafi Wolters0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Sebastian Karlsson Grach50%
Kévin Monzialo25%
Ilias Boumassaoudi25%
Kevin Felida0%
Jeffrey Fortes0%
Jasper Van Heertum0%
Stan Maas0%
Pepijn van de Merbel0%
Mees Laros0%
Bohao Wang0%
Devon De Corte0%
Hessel Eikelboom0%
Rafi Wolters0%
Sheddy Barglan0%
Vitesse
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Naoufal Bannis75%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Filipe de Ferreira25%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Chiel Olde Keizer0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Chiel Olde Keizer50%
Nino Zonneveld33%
Mathijs Marschalk33%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz25%
Naoufal Bannis0%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Filipe de Ferreira0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Filipe de Ferreira50%
Naoufal Bannis25%
Marco Schikora25%
Omar Achouitar25%
Ayman Sellouf0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Chiel Olde Keizer0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Naoufal Bannis75%
Ayman Sellouf25%
Chiel Olde Keizer25%
Marco Schikora0%
Valon Zumberi0%
Filipe de Ferreira0%
Ricardo-Felipe Schwarz0%
Marcus Steffen0%
Pontus Dahbo0%
Nino Zonneveld0%
Mathijs Marschalk0%
Eduard Probst0%
Omar Achouitar0%
Maximilian Brüll0%
João Pinto0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Den Bosch's squad is €2m less valuable than Vitesse's (€5m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Den Bosch's attack is €1m less valuable than Vitesse's (€3m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Den Bosch and Vitesse have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Den Bosch and Vitesse have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
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Heracles
MVV
Almere City FC
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Jong Ajax
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht