PythiaFootballBETA
Deportivo La Coruna is favoured to win against Las Palmas, with a recent-form storyline unfolding as the home side comes off a defeat. The overall shape of the match is expected to be closely contested, with Deportivo La Coruna holding a 42% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and Las Palmas a 31% chance of winning.
The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.1%.
Deportivo La Coruna has scored an average of 1.54 goals at home and conceded 1.15, while Las Palmas has scored 1.0 goal away and conceded 1.69 against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, with the following selections also available: Over 1.5 (77.5%), Over 3.5 cards (75.9% edge), and Over 21.5 fouls (82.1% miss). Deportivo La Coruna has a 42% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and Las Palmas a 31% chance of winning.
Deportivo La Coruna's home win streak came to an end as Las Palmas secured a 1-2 away victory, defying the pre-match favourite. The win extends Las Palmas' recent form, having come off a win and now boasting a 2-1 scoreline against Albacete in their last outing. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, despite holding a 42% probability of success. The model's call was wrong, as Deportivo La Coruna failed to deliver. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks were split, with 'Over 1.5' goals hitting at 77.5%, but 'Over 21.5 fouls' and 'Over 3.5 cards' both missing their mark at 82.1% and 75.9%, respectively.
Deportivo La Coruna| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.00 | 1.53 | 1.20 | 1.47 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.46 | 0.96 | 1.54 | 1.15 | 1.38 | 0.77 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.75 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Las Palmas| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.07 | 1.73 | 0.60 | 1.13 | 1.53 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 1.30 | 1.15 | 1.57 | 0.64 | 1.00 | 1.69 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.67 | 0.33 | 4.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+2pp vs league) | |||||
| Las Palmas goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 8.3% | 13% | 7.5% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.2% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Deportivo La CorunaLas PalmasDeportivo La Coruna| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 24.7 | 25.3 | 24.0 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (46) | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 24.8 | 25.5 | 24.1 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 7.2 | 5.5 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 5.5 | 22.8 | 23.0 | 22.5 |
| % over line | 46% | 40% | 52% | 76% | 68% | 84% | 72% | 80% | 64% |
| % under line | 54% | 60% | 48% | 24% | 32% | 16% | 28% | 20% | 36% |
Las Palmas| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 8.4 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 27.2 | 26.1 | 28.3 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 7.2 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 8.0 | 25.8 | 22.0 | 29.5 |
| vs Similar (42) | 8.6 | 9.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 27.1 | 26.2 | 28.1 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 7.2 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 28.8 | 29.0 | 28.5 |
| % over line | 36% | 46% | 25% | 66% | 58% | 75% | 86% | 77% | 96% |
| % under line | 64% | 54% | 75% | 34% | 42% | 25% | 14% | 23% | 4% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 fouls | 82.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 77.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 75.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 01/02/20 | H | 2-1 | |
| 13/10/19 | A | 3-0 | |
| 10/03/19 | H | 0-1 | |
| 03/11/18 | A | 1-1 | |
| 17/03/18 | H | 1-1 | |
| 30/10/17 | A | 1-3 | |
| 20/05/17 | H | 3-0 |
Deportivo La Coruna| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 08/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 20/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 31/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-1 |
Las Palmas| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 27/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 02/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 29/03/26 | A | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Racing Santander | 42 | 82 | 60% | 2.0 | 90 | 61 | +29 | 3.6 | 86% | 71% | 55% | 10.4 | 62% | 6.5 | 88% | 27.4 | 86% | 82 | 42 | 17 | 24 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 2 |  Malaga | 46 | 81 | 50% | 1.8 | 79 | 54 | +25 | 2.9 | 76% | 57% | 28% | 8.9 | 46% | 5.4 | 72% | 24.9 | 70% | 35 | 24 | 4 | 7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 3 |  Almeria | 46 | 79 | 50% | 1.7 | 86 | 68 | +18 | 3.3 | 83% | 70% | 41% | 9.4 | 50% | 5.7 | 80% | 26.8 | 89% | 69 | 37 | 22 | 9 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 4 | Deportivo La Coruna | 42 | 77 | 52% | 1.8 | 65 | 44 | +21 | 2.6 | 83% | 50% | 21% | 9.3 | 43% | 5.3 | 78% | 24.2 | 74% | 58 | 43 | 4 | 11 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 5 | Las Palmas | 44 | 74 | 45% | 1.7 | 58 | 42 | +16 | 2.3 | 70% | 43% | 18% | 8.1 | 34% | 4.5 | 61% | 27.5 | 89% | 53 | 19 | 9 | 25 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 56% |
| 6 |  Castellón | 44 | 73 | 45% | 1.7 | 73 | 55 | +18 | 2.9 | 77% | 50% | 41% | 9.9 | 50% | 6.1 | 88% | 28.4 | 95% | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 7 |  Burgos | 42 | 72 | 48% | 1.7 | 48 | 33 | +15 | 1.9 | 55% | 31% | 14% | 8.4 | 33% | 5.9 | 85% | 27.5 | 86% | 21 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 46% |
| 8 |  Eibar | 42 | 67 | 45% | 1.6 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 2.2 | 62% | 48% | 17% | 9.3 | 43% | 5.5 | 83% | 25.5 | 79% | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 9 |  Sporting Gijon | 42 | 61 | 43% | 1.5 | 60 | 54 | +6 | 2.7 | 67% | 55% | 31% | 9.9 | 55% | 5.3 | 76% | 22.2 | 55% | 33 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 10 |  Cordoba | 42 | 61 | 40% | 1.5 | 57 | 61 | -4 | 2.8 | 81% | 60% | 33% | 10.7 | 62% | 5.8 | 88% | 30.0 | 88% | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 11 |  AD Ceuta FC | 42 | 61 | 40% | 1.5 | 51 | 63 | -12 | 2.7 | 74% | 55% | 26% | 8.9 | 43% | 5.3 | 83% | 27.6 | 93% | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 51% |
| 12 |  Albacete | 42 | 59 | 38% | 1.4 | 56 | 55 | +1 | 2.6 | 69% | 50% | 29% | 10.6 | 62% | 4.6 | 71% | 22.1 | 48% | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 42% |
| 13 |  FC Andorra | 42 | 58 | 38% | 1.4 | 62 | 54 | +8 | 2.8 | 74% | 52% | 29% | 9.1 | 45% | 5.7 | 90% | 28.1 | 81% | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 61% |
| 14 |  Granada CF | 42 | 48 | 29% | 1.1 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 2.5 | 64% | 43% | 29% | 9.2 | 40% | 5.7 | 80% | 27.6 | 88% | 31 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 15 |  Real Sociedad II | 42 | 47 | 29% | 1.1 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 2.7 | 69% | 45% | 26% | 9.2 | 43% | 6.1 | 81% | 29.1 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 44% |
| 16 |  Leganes | 42 | 46 | 26% | 1.1 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 2.2 | 69% | 45% | 14% | 9.5 | 48% | 5.4 | 81% | 27.0 | 88% | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 17 |  Valladolid | 42 | 46 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 57 | -13 | 2.4 | 62% | 43% | 24% | 8.8 | 40% | 5.9 | 79% | 28.9 | 86% | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 18 |  Cadiz | 42 | 43 | 26% | 1.0 | 41 | 61 | -20 | 2.4 | 67% | 52% | 21% | 9.6 | 48% | 5.2 | 70% | 26.0 | 86% | 21 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 19 |  Mirandes | 42 | 40 | 24% | 1.0 | 47 | 69 | -22 | 2.8 | 76% | 57% | 31% | 9.3 | 45% | 5.9 | 85% | 27.7 | 81% | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 20 |  Huesca | 42 | 38 | 21% | 0.9 | 41 | 63 | -22 | 2.5 | 69% | 43% | 19% | 9.8 | 50% | 5.1 | 83% | 25.5 | 83% | 16 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 21 |  Cultural Leonesa | 42 | 37 | 21% | 0.9 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 2.5 | 69% | 50% | 24% | 8.7 | 38% | 5.0 | 64% | 25.0 | 79% | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 22 |  Zaragoza | 42 | 36 | 19% | 0.9 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 19% | 10.2 | 60% | 6.5 | 90% | 28.3 | 86% | 18 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 49% |