PythiaFootballBETA
Derby and Sheffield United face a finely balanced clash, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 40 % for Derby, 27 % for a draw, and 32 % for Sheffield United. The average goal expectation sits at 2.8, but the most likely total is two goals, a 25 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.9 % chance, while the final result was an away win.
At home, Derby averages 1.45 goals scored and 0.73 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Sheffield United on the road averages 1.23 scored and 1.31 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals (78.8 %), Under 5.5 cards (77.8 %), Over 2.5 cards (76.8 %), Over 19.5 fouls (75.7 %), Under 25.5 fouls (71.4 %), and Over 8.5 corners (70.3 %). Derby’s recent five matches are DLLLW, coming off a 2-2 draw with Cardiff, while Sheffield United’s last five are DDWWL, also ending in a 0-0 draw against Swansea.
The upset came early as Sheffield United snatched a 1-2 away win, ending Derby’s run of draws and a single win in their last five. The pre-match favourite was a Home win at 40 %, but the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selections were mixed: Over 1.5 goals hit, Under 5.5 cards missed, Over 2.5 cards hit, Over 19.5 fouls hit, Under 25.5 fouls hit and Over 8.5 corners hit. Each probability was expressed as a percentage: 78.8 % for Over 1.5, 77.8 % for Under 5.5 cards, 76.8 % for Over 2.5 cards, 75.7 % for Over 19.5 fouls, 71.4 % for Under 25.5 fouls and 70.3 % for Over 8.5 corners. The final score of 1-2 confirmed the away victory.
Derby| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.27 | 1.36 | 1.07 | 1.62 | 1.44 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.25 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.33 | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.54 | 1.08 | 1.45 | 0.73 | 1.60 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Sheffield United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.77 | 1.43 | 2.18 | 1.53 | 1.23 | 1.31 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 1.72 | 1.34 | 2.12 | 1.38 | 1.23 | 1.31 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 4.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Sheffield United goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.6% | 13% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
DerbySheffield UnitedDerby| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 22.6 | 22.2 | 23.0 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 9.9 | 11.2 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 24.1 | 22.2 | 26.7 |
| vs Similar (43) | 9.9 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 22.3 | 22.1 | 22.5 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| % over line | 46% | 46% | 46% | 52% | 54% | 50% | 58% | 54% | 62% |
| % under line | 54% | 54% | 54% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 42% | 46% | 38% |
Sheffield United| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.6 | 12.0 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 21.6 | 22.0 | 21.1 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (49) | 11.5 | 11.8 | 11.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 21.7 | 22.4 | 21.1 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 16.0 | 16.0 | - | 3.0 | 3.0 | - | 14.0 | 14.0 | - |
| % over line | 68% | 68% | 68% | 56% | 52% | 60% | 44% | 48% | 40% |
| % under line | 32% | 32% | 32% | 44% | 48% | 40% | 56% | 52% | 60% |
Derby| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.77 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.94 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.77 | 0.54 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.93 | 0.53 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Sheffield United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.60 | 0.82 | 0.71 | 0.85 | 0.46 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.83 | 0.55 | 0.81 | 0.62 | 0.85 | 0.46 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Derby| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.70 | 0.79 | 0.50 | 0.69 | 0.88 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.50 | 1.75 | 0.33 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.77 | 0.54 | 0.91 | 0.18 | 0.67 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Sheffield United| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.83 | 1.35 | 0.82 | 0.38 | 0.85 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.90 | 0.79 | 1.31 | 0.75 | 0.38 | 0.85 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 77.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 76.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 75.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 71.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 70.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/25 | A | 1-3 | |
| 01/02/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/09/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/01/22 | H | 2-0 | |
| 25/09/21 | A | 1-0 |
Derby| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 16/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 10/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 2-1 |
Sheffield United| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 22/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 3-3 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 11/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Coventry | 46 | 95 | 61% | 2.1 | 97 | 45 | +52 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 37% | 9.6 | 41% | 3.7 | 48% | 20.8 | 43% | 202 | 75 | 53 | 74 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 55% |
| 2 |  Ipswich | 46 | 84 | 50% | 1.8 | 80 | 47 | +33 | 2.8 | 85% | 52% | 26% | 9.6 | 39% | 4.4 | 63% | 24.5 | 72% | 213 | 94 | 51 | 68 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 56% |
| 3 |  Southampton | 48 | 84 | 48% | 1.8 | 84 | 57 | +27 | 2.9 | 85% | 62% | 33% | 10.7 | 62% | 4.1 | 62% | 22.8 | 58% | 195 | 68 | 55 | 71 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 4 |  Millwall | 48 | 84 | 50% | 1.8 | 64 | 51 | +13 | 2.4 | 79% | 46% | 21% | 11.1 | 56% | 3.6 | 46% | 21.0 | 35% | 99 | 30 | 34 | 36 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 48% |
| 5 |  Middlesbrough | 49 | 81 | 45% | 1.7 | 73 | 50 | +23 | 2.5 | 67% | 53% | 29% | 11.0 | 57% | 3.8 | 55% | 21.8 | 49% | 152 | 58 | 54 | 40 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 59% |
| 6 |  Hull | 49 | 80 | 47% | 1.6 | 73 | 66 | +7 | 2.8 | 76% | 61% | 35% | 10.3 | 61% | 4.2 | 59% | 21.2 | 41% | 99 | 44 | 20 | 35 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 45% |
| 7 |  Wrexham | 46 | 71 | 41% | 1.5 | 69 | 65 | +4 | 2.9 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 9.9 | 50% | 3.4 | 50% | 19.2 | 30% | 76 | 14 | 21 | 41 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 8 | Derby | 46 | 69 | 43% | 1.5 | 67 | 59 | +8 | 2.7 | 76% | 52% | 24% | 10.0 | 48% | 4.2 | 57% | 22.9 | 61% | 55 | 22 | 16 | 18 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 9 |  Norwich | 46 | 65 | 41% | 1.4 | 63 | 56 | +7 | 2.6 | 83% | 48% | 15% | 10.3 | 59% | 3.9 | 59% | 21.2 | 41% | 103 | 48 | 23 | 32 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 46 | 64 | 37% | 1.4 | 57 | 56 | +1 | 2.5 | 78% | 46% | 17% | 9.9 | 50% | 3.8 | 48% | 22.1 | 48% | 101 | 47 | 18 | 37 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 11 |  Swansea | 46 | 64 | 39% | 1.4 | 57 | 59 | -2 | 2.5 | 76% | 50% | 20% | 9.9 | 50% | 4.1 | 63% | 22.7 | 61% | 89 | 53 | 12 | 24 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 55% |
| 12 |  Bristol City | 46 | 62 | 37% | 1.3 | 59 | 59 | +0 | 2.6 | 72% | 46% | 26% | 9.9 | 52% | 3.8 | 57% | 21.3 | 48% | 72 | 28 | 19 | 24 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 49% |
| 13 | Sheffield United | 46 | 60 | 39% | 1.3 | 66 | 66 | +0 | 2.9 | 74% | 59% | 33% | 11.7 | 70% | 4.1 | 57% | 21.5 | 43% | 121 | 27 | 43 | 51 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 14 |  Preston | 46 | 60 | 33% | 1.3 | 55 | 62 | -7 | 2.5 | 80% | 48% | 24% | 10.8 | 59% | 3.4 | 48% | 19.9 | 28% | 54 | 25 | 5 | 24 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 15 |  QPR | 46 | 58 | 35% | 1.3 | 61 | 73 | -12 | 2.9 | 76% | 63% | 37% | 10.0 | 50% | 3.7 | 57% | 20.5 | 41% | 69 | 29 | 16 | 24 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 16 |  Watford | 46 | 57 | 30% | 1.2 | 53 | 65 | -12 | 2.6 | 80% | 48% | 24% | 10.2 | 57% | 4.5 | 57% | 21.2 | 41% | 90 | 30 | 36 | 24 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 51% |
| 17 |  Stoke | 46 | 55 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 56 | -5 | 2.3 | 70% | 43% | 20% | 10.8 | 59% | 4.0 | 43% | 20.3 | 39% | 79 | 42 | 7 | 29 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 18 |  Portsmouth | 46 | 55 | 30% | 1.2 | 49 | 64 | -15 | 2.5 | 67% | 43% | 24% | 10.7 | 65% | 4.0 | 50% | 21.8 | 57% | 35 | 14 | 5 | 16 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 19 |  West Brom | 46 | 53 | 28% | 1.2 | 48 | 58 | -10 | 2.3 | 67% | 46% | 17% | 9.1 | 43% | 3.4 | 39% | 20.8 | 41% | 60 | 21 | 18 | 22 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 20 |  Charlton | 46 | 53 | 28% | 1.2 | 44 | 58 | -14 | 2.2 | 67% | 39% | 15% | 9.7 | 48% | 3.6 | 48% | 21.6 | 48% | 28 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 42% |
| 21 |  Leicester | 46 | 52 | 26% | 1.1 | 58 | 68 | -10 | 2.7 | 85% | 54% | 28% | 11.1 | 63% | 3.6 | 41% | 21.7 | 50% | 118 | 46 | 28 | 45 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 22 |  Blackburn | 46 | 52 | 28% | 1.1 | 42 | 56 | -14 | 2.1 | 70% | 39% | 13% | 10.4 | 59% | 3.8 | 54% | 20.7 | 43% | 40 | 16 | 10 | 14 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 23 |  Oxford | 46 | 47 | 24% | 1.0 | 45 | 59 | -14 | 2.3 | 67% | 46% | 20% | 11.2 | 70% | 3.4 | 43% | 21.6 | 46% | 28 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 40% |
| 24 |  Sheffield Weds | 46 | 18 | 4% | 0.4 | 29 | 89 | -60 | 2.6 | 80% | 52% | 24% | 10.4 | 54% | 3.0 | 41% | 21.7 | 50% | 15 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 45% |