Derby’s home form suggests a modest edge, with a 47% chance of victory, a 30% chance of a draw, and a 24% chance of a Stoke win, so the model favours a Derby win. The match is expected to see about 2.4 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.9% probability. Derby, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened side, averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.00 conceded, while Stoke, on the road, averages 0.64 scored and 1.64 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (98.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (96.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.0%), Home +2 handicap (91.2%), and Under 4.5 (91.0%). Derby’s recent five matches read LDLLL, coming off a 0-3 defeat to Swansea, while Stoke’s last five are LDLLW, following a 1-4 loss to Wolves.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Derby win
48.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Stoke win
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Derby
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.37
1.33
1.27
1.53
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.50
1.00
2.33
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.46
1.19
1.42
1.00
1.50
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.50
1.35
1.35
0.62
1.69
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.80
1.67
1.67
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.96
1.50
1.23
1.38
0.64
1.64
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.6%
Under 1.5
30.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
42.1%
Under 2.5
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.4%
Under 3.5
78.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
47.1%
No
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
12.4%
0-0
10.6%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
9.0%
0-1
7.3%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
4.8%
Derby goals ↓
Stoke goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.3%
3.9%
1.2%
0.3%
1
12%
14%
5.7%
1.7%
0.4%
2
9.9%
9.0%
4.1%
1.3%
0.3%
3
4.8%
4.4%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.7%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Derby goals (down), columns = Stoke goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Derby is 0.30 points better than Stoke in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Derby is 0.35 goals better than Stoke in terms of goals scored per game (1.46 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Derby is 0.07 goals worse than Stoke in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Derby is 7.5 percentage points worse than Stoke in terms of average possession (44% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Derby
For 4.6 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 10.2 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Stoke
For 5.4 · Against 3.4 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 9.6 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derby
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.3
10.2
3.5
3.7
3.4
23.1
22.8
23.5
vs Stronger (6)
10.5
11.3
8.0
2.2
2.8
1.0
22.8
21.3
27.0
vs Similar (44)
10.3
10.2
10.3
3.7
3.9
3.6
23.1
23.0
23.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
57%
48%
48%
54%
42%
68%
70%
67%
% under line
48%
43%
52%
52%
46%
58%
32%
30%
33%
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
10.1
10.4
3.6
3.7
3.6
21.5
22.0
20.9
vs Stronger (7)
9.7
11.2
7.7
3.3
4.5
1.7
20.4
23.0
17.0
vs Similar (42)
10.5
10.1
10.9
3.7
3.5
3.9
21.6
21.6
21.6
vs Weaker (1)
6.0
6.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
48%
46%
50%
44%
44%
43%
48%
54%
40%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
56%
56%
57%
52%
46%
60%
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Middlesbrough
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Millwall
10.8
Cardiff
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Derby
10.0
QPR
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
QPR
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Millwall
3.4
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.3
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.4
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.9
Swansea
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
West Ham
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.7
Birmingham
21.7
Norwich
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.9
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.5
Preston
20.4
Burnley
19.9
Wrexham
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.5%
Under 9.5
41.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.6%
Under 3.5
41.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
50.3%
Under 21.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Derby or Draw
77.6%
Avg Implied -
48%
29%
22%
covers Derby + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Derby or Stoke
70.9%
Avg Implied -
48%
29%
22%
covers Derby + Stoke
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Stoke
51.6%
Avg Implied -
48%
29%
22%
covers Draw + Stoke
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Derby over/under 0.5
Over
76.6%
Under
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5
Over
42.6%
Under
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5
Over
17.9%
Under
82.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 3.5
Over
6.0%
Under
94.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 0.5
Over
59.9%
Under
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 1.5
Over
23.2%
Under
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 2.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Derby, so a minus line means Derby give that many goals of a start and Stoke receive them. At -1, Derby must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Derby win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Derby)
Derby -2
9.7%
Draw -2
15.1%
Stoke +2
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Derby)
Derby -1
24.8%
Draw -1
23.7%
Stoke +1
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Derby)
Derby +1
77.6%
Draw +1
14.4%
Stoke -1
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Derby)
Derby +2
92.0%
Draw +2
6.0%
Stoke -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Derby
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
0.67
0.67
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
0.75
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.62
0.67
0.67
0.93
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.65
0.41
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.60
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.54
0.62
0.54
0.36
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Derby over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Derby
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.67
0.60
0.60
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.75
0.33
1.67
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.58
0.75
0.33
0.57
0.79
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Stoke) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stoke
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.97
0.71
0.94
0.23
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.20
0.67
1.67
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.96
0.62
0.85
0.27
1.09
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Derby) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Derby over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derby over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Stoke over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.2%
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Home or Away
70.9%
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Over 8.5 corners
70.5%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Derby
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
S. Szmodics75%
Carlton Morris33%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lewis Travis75%
Sondre Langås60%
D. Sanderson40%
Rhian Brewster25%
A. Mowatt25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
Oscar Fraulo25%
C. Taylor20%
M. Johnston20%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Bobby Clark0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Bobby Clark40%
Carlton Morris33%
Oscar Fraulo25%
Rhian Brewster0%
L. Salvesen0%
S. Szmodics0%
C. Taylor0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
Corey Blackett-Taylor0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Szmodics25%
Corey Blackett-Taylor25%
L. Salvesen20%
Bobby Clark20%
Rhian Brewster0%
C. Taylor0%
Carlton Morris0%
Craig Forsyth0%
Lewis Travis0%
A. Mowatt0%
Ryan Hedges0%
J. Ward0%
J. Widell Zetterström0%
D. Sanderson0%
Filip Bilbija0%
Oscar Fraulo0%
Sondre Langås0%
M. Johnston0%
Stoke
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Róbert Boženík33%
Ethan Galbraith33%
Eric Bocat20%
S. Gallagher17%
G. Hirst0%
Sorba Thomas0%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Svante Ingelsson0%
Maksym Talovierov0%
V. Johansson0%
M. Manhoef0%
T. Rigo0%
Bosun Lawal0%
Luke Graham0%
Jun-Ho Bae0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bosun Lawal50%
Jun-Ho Bae40%
S. Gallagher33%
Svante Ingelsson33%
Maksym Talovierov33%
Ethan Galbraith33%
G. Hirst25%
Luke Graham25%
Sorba Thomas20%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Róbert Boženík0%
V. Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
M. Manhoef0%
T. Rigo0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
T. Rigo25%
Sorba Thomas20%
Jun-Ho Bae20%
S. Gallagher17%
G. Hirst0%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Svante Ingelsson0%
Róbert Boženík0%
Maksym Talovierov0%
Ethan Galbraith0%
V. Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
M. Manhoef0%
Bosun Lawal0%
Luke Graham0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Gallagher33%
T. Rigo25%
G. Hirst0%
Sorba Thomas0%
B. Johnson0%
B. Wilmot0%
Svante Ingelsson0%
Róbert Boženík0%
Maksym Talovierov0%
Ethan Galbraith0%
V. Johansson0%
Eric Bocat0%
M. Manhoef0%
Bosun Lawal0%
Luke Graham0%
Jun-Ho Bae0%
El Hadji Djibril Soumaré0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Derby's squad is €22m less valuable than Stoke's (€57m vs €79m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Derby's attack is €11m less valuable than Stoke's (€25m vs €35m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Derby's midfield is €2m more valuable than Stoke's (€14m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Derby's defence is €14m less valuable than Stoke's (€18m vs €32m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Lincoln
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Burnley
Preston