This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.87
2.25
0.75
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.67
1.00
2.50
1.00
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.7%
Under 1.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.8%
Under 2.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.9%
Under 3.5
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.8%
No
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.8%
1-1
13.0%
2-0
12.0%
0-0
11.8%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
6.7%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
4.4%
Derry City goals ↓
Dundalk goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
6.7%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
1
15%
13%
4.4%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
8.9%
3.3%
0.8%
0.2%
3
6.0%
4.4%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Derry City goals (down), columns = Dundalk goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.19
Derry City
1.83
Dundalk
1.75
St Patrick's Athl.
1.69
Sligo Rovers
1.44
Bohemians
1.28
Shelbourne
1.14
Drogheda United
1.06
UCD
0.78
Finn Harps
0.56
Waterford
0.00
Derry City is 0.08 points better than Dundalk in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.75).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.58
Derry City
1.47
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Bohemians
1.25
Shelbourne
1.11
Drogheda United
0.94
Finn Harps
0.92
UCD
0.78
Waterford
0.00
Derry City is 0.08 goals better than Dundalk in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.39).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shamrock Rovers
0.61
Derry City
0.75
Dundalk
0.89
Waterford
1.00
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Sligo Rovers
1.14
Bohemians
1.28
Shelbourne
1.36
Drogheda United
1.61
UCD
1.81
Finn Harps
1.97
Derry City is 0.14 goals better than Dundalk in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 0.89).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Derry City
ðĐ Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
ðĻ Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
â ïļ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dundalk
ðĐ Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
ðĻ Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
â ïļ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (15)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
ðĻ Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
â ïļ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.94
0.25
1.12
0.12
0.75
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.25
1.33
0.17
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
75% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.27
0.75
0.25
0.29
0.29
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.33
0.83
0.33
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.50
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.58
0.83
0.83
1.17
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
56% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dundalk) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Dundalk
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.60
1.50
0.50
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.08
0.67
1.67
0.67
0.50
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dundalk over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Derry City · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
KÃĐvin Santos30%
Ellis Chapman25%
Tyler Smith25%
Michael Duffy24%
James Clarke22%
Afolabi Akinyemi18%
Alex Bannon17%
Liam Boyce14%
Henry Rylah14%
C. Dummigan11%
Adam O'Reilly8%
B. Cotter8%
Darragh Markey6%
Josh Thomas5%
Conor Barr5%
Patrick McClean5%
J. Olayinka4%
C. Winchester0%
Brandon Fleming0%
J. McClean0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Jamie Stott0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
R. Slevin0%
Darragh Burns0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster67%
Patrick McClean36%
Gavin Whyte33%
Jamie Stott32%
Adam O'Reilly28%
C. Dummigan28%
Darragh Markey28%
J. McClean25%
Darragh Burns25%
Brandon Fleming24%
C. Winchester23%
Josh Thomas21%
B. Cotter20%
Ben Doherty18%
James Clarke17%
Liam Boyce14%
R. Slevin12%
KÃĐvin Santos10%
J. Olayinka8%
Henry Rylah7%
Afolabi Akinyemi6%
Michael Duffy5%
Eddie Beach5%
Ellis Chapman0%
Tyler Smith0%
Brian Maher0%
Nick Twisk0%
Alex Bannon0%
Conor Barr0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Darragh Burns50%
Gavin Whyte33%
J. McClean25%
Michael Duffy19%
Alex Bannon17%
Liam Boyce14%
KÃĐvin Santos10%
Ben Doherty9%
Brandon Fleming8%
Adam O'Reilly8%
Henry Rylah7%
C. Dummigan6%
Jamie Stott5%
Patrick McClean5%
James Clarke4%
J. Olayinka4%
Ellis Chapman0%
C. Winchester0%
Tyler Smith0%
Brian Maher0%
Darragh Markey0%
B. Cotter0%
Afolabi Akinyemi0%
R. Slevin0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Josh Thomas0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
Conor Barr0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Michael Duffy43%
Ellis Chapman25%
Liam Boyce14%
Afolabi Akinyemi6%
Josh Thomas5%
Patrick McClean5%
James Clarke4%
J. Olayinka4%
Brandon Fleming4%
Adam O'Reilly4%
C. Winchester0%
J. McClean0%
Tyler Smith0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Jamie Stott0%
C. Dummigan0%
Brian Maher0%
Darragh Markey0%
B. Cotter0%
Ben Doherty0%
R. Slevin0%
Darragh Burns0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
Alex Bannon0%
KÃĐvin Santos0%
Henry Rylah0%
Conor Barr0%
Dundalk · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
D. Horgan33%
Gbemi Arubi32%
Cian Dillon20%
Danny Mullen18%
Tyreke Wilson17%
Trevor Clarke17%
Eoin Kenny14%
Ronan Teahan14%
D. McDaid7%
Bobby Burns7%
Shane Tracey6%
Robert Cornwall6%
Aodh Dervin4%
H. Groome4%
Conor O'Keeffe0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Keith Buckley0%
Conor Kearns0%
T. Wilson0%
Enda Minogue0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Harvey Warren0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Vinnie Leonard0%
Egor Vassenin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinnie Leonard33%
Bobby Burns32%
Keith Buckley30%
Aodh Dervin28%
Robert Cornwall28%
Mayowa Animasahun28%
Tom Grivosti25%
Egor Vassenin25%
Harvey Warren21%
Cian Dillon20%
Conor O'Keeffe17%
Trevor Clarke17%
T. Wilson16%
Shane Tracey12%
D. Horgan11%
Ronan Teahan10%
Danny Mullen9%
Gbemi Arubi9%
Tyreke Wilson9%
H. Groome8%
D. McDaid7%
Eoin Kenny5%
Conor Kearns0%
Enda Minogue0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tom Grivosti50%
D. Horgan30%
Conor O'Keeffe17%
Gbemi Arubi14%
Eoin Kenny10%
Tyreke Wilson9%
Aodh Dervin8%
T. Wilson5%
H. Groome4%
D. McDaid4%
Keith Buckley4%
Bobby Burns0%
Danny Mullen0%
Trevor Clarke0%
Robert Cornwall0%
Conor Kearns0%
Enda Minogue0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Harvey Warren0%
Cian Dillon0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Shane Tracey0%
Vinnie Leonard0%
Ronan Teahan0%
Egor Vassenin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
D. Horgan41%
Cian Dillon40%
Gbemi Arubi32%
Danny Mullen18%
Trevor Clarke17%
Bobby Burns7%
Eoin Kenny5%
Ronan Teahan5%
H. Groome4%
D. McDaid4%
Conor O'Keeffe0%
Tom Grivosti0%
Robert Cornwall0%
Keith Buckley0%
Conor Kearns0%
Aodh Dervin0%
T. Wilson0%
Enda Minogue0%
Mayowa Animasahun0%
Harvey Warren0%
Leonardo Gaxha0%
Sean Spaight0%
Tyreke Wilson0%
Shane Tracey0%
Vinnie Leonard0%
Egor Vassenin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
FH (2)
€0m
Derry City's squad is €2m more valuable than Dundalk's (€4m vs €3m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
Derry City and Dundalk have a similar attack value (both €1m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
Derry City and Dundalk have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
FH (0)
€0m
Derry City and Dundalk have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
Bohemians
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
UCD
Finn Harps
Waterford