This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.70
2.00
0.53
1.20
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
1.42
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
1.81
0.69
2.38
0.88
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
68.5%
Under 1.5
31.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
40.7%
Under 2.5
59.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.3%
Under 3.5
79.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0 â
11.2%
0-1
11.1%
1-0
9.2%
1-2
8.2%
0-2
7.7%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
5.6%
Derry City goals ↓
Shamrock Rovers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
7.7%
3.2%
1.0%
1
9.2%
14%
8.2%
3.4%
1.1%
2
5.6%
7.0%
4.4%
1.8%
0.6%
3
2.0%
2.5%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Derry City goals (down), columns = Shamrock Rovers goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.19
Derry City
1.83
Dundalk
1.75
St Patrick's Athl.
1.69
Sligo Rovers
1.44
Bohemians
1.28
Shelbourne
1.14
Drogheda United
1.06
UCD
0.78
Finn Harps
0.56
Waterford
0.00
Derry City is 0.36 points worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 2.19).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.58
Derry City
1.47
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Bohemians
1.25
Shelbourne
1.11
Drogheda United
0.94
Finn Harps
0.92
UCD
0.78
Waterford
0.00
Derry City is 0.22 goals worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.69).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shamrock Rovers
0.61
Derry City
0.75
Dundalk
0.89
Waterford
1.00
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Sligo Rovers
1.14
Bohemians
1.28
Shelbourne
1.36
Drogheda United
1.61
UCD
1.81
Finn Harps
1.97
Derry City is 0.14 goals worse than Shamrock Rovers in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 0.61).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Derry City
For 3.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.0
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 6.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
â ïļ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Shamrock Rovers
For 3.5 · Against 4.2 · Total 7.7
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 3.7 · Total 6.5
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 13.0 · Total 25.5
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (26)
5.0
5.0
-
0.2
0.5
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
5.0
5.0
-
3.0
6.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
4%
8%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
96%
92%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (30)
7.7
7.7
7.7
1.3
1.1
1.5
25.5
25.5
-
vs Stronger (2)
9.0
6.0
12.0
6.5
8.0
5.0
28.0
28.0
-
vs Similar (12)
4.0
7.0
1.0
0.7
0.2
1.2
-
-
-
vs Weaker (16)
10.0
10.0
10.0
1.1
1.0
1.2
23.0
23.0
-
% over line
50%
33%
67%
17%
13%
20%
100%
100%
-
% under line
50%
67%
33%
83%
87%
80%
0%
0%
-
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
10.8
St Patrick's Athl.
10.2
Shamrock Rovers
7.7
Derry City
5.0
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
St Patrick's Athl.
7.7
Shamrock Rovers
6.5
Derry City
6.0
Sligo Rovers
4.8
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shamrock Rovers
25.5
Sligo Rovers
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
42.9%
Under 9.5
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
68.6%
Under 3.5
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.38
0.92
0.33
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.25
1.14
0.29
0.67
0.22
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
62% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.20
0.60
0.20
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (12)
0.67
0.00
0.83
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.94
0.25
1.12
0.38
0.75
0.12
Clean sheet %
87% (+58pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.81
0.65
0.67
0.75
0.93
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.69
0.86
0.86
1.11
0.56
vs Weaker (8)
0.62
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
42% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Shamrock Rovers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shamrock Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
1.00
0.33
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.50
0.67
0.00
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (16)
0.88
0.44
1.25
0.50
0.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shamrock Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
Derry City · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
KÃĐvin Santos30%
Ellis Chapman25%
Tyler Smith25%
Michael Duffy24%
James Clarke22%
Afolabi Akinyemi18%
Alex Bannon17%
Liam Boyce14%
Henry Rylah14%
C. Dummigan11%
Adam O'Reilly8%
B. Cotter8%
Darragh Markey6%
Josh Thomas5%
Conor Barr5%
Patrick McClean5%
J. Olayinka4%
C. Winchester0%
Brandon Fleming0%
J. McClean0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Jamie Stott0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
R. Slevin0%
Darragh Burns0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster67%
Patrick McClean36%
Gavin Whyte33%
Jamie Stott32%
Adam O'Reilly28%
C. Dummigan28%
Darragh Markey28%
J. McClean25%
Darragh Burns25%
Brandon Fleming24%
C. Winchester23%
Josh Thomas21%
B. Cotter20%
Ben Doherty18%
James Clarke17%
Liam Boyce14%
R. Slevin12%
KÃĐvin Santos10%
J. Olayinka8%
Henry Rylah7%
Afolabi Akinyemi6%
Michael Duffy5%
Eddie Beach5%
Ellis Chapman0%
Tyler Smith0%
Brian Maher0%
Nick Twisk0%
Alex Bannon0%
Conor Barr0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Darragh Burns50%
Gavin Whyte33%
J. McClean25%
Michael Duffy19%
Alex Bannon17%
Liam Boyce14%
KÃĐvin Santos10%
Ben Doherty9%
Brandon Fleming8%
Adam O'Reilly8%
Henry Rylah7%
C. Dummigan6%
Jamie Stott5%
Patrick McClean5%
James Clarke4%
J. Olayinka4%
Ellis Chapman0%
C. Winchester0%
Tyler Smith0%
Brian Maher0%
Darragh Markey0%
B. Cotter0%
Afolabi Akinyemi0%
R. Slevin0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Josh Thomas0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
Conor Barr0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Michael Duffy43%
Ellis Chapman25%
Liam Boyce14%
Afolabi Akinyemi6%
Josh Thomas5%
Patrick McClean5%
James Clarke4%
J. Olayinka4%
Brandon Fleming4%
Adam O'Reilly4%
C. Winchester0%
J. McClean0%
Tyler Smith0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Jamie Stott0%
C. Dummigan0%
Brian Maher0%
Darragh Markey0%
B. Cotter0%
Ben Doherty0%
R. Slevin0%
Darragh Burns0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
Alex Bannon0%
KÃĐvin Santos0%
Henry Rylah0%
Conor Barr0%
Shamrock Rovers
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rory Gaffney20%
Graham Burke0%
Richie Towell0%
Chris McCann0%
Jack Byrne0%
Dan Cleary0%
Sean Gannon0%
Sean Hoare0%
Alan Mannus0%
Lee Grace0%
Sean Kavanagh0%
Roberto Lopes0%
Ronan Finn0%
Dylan Watts0%
Aaron Greene0%
Andy Lyons0%
Neil Farrugia0%
Gary O'Neill0%
Justin Ferizaj0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sean Kavanagh60%
Dan Cleary50%
Sean Gannon50%
Gary O'Neill40%
Richie Towell33%
Neil Farrugia33%
Jack Byrne25%
Rory Gaffney20%
Aaron Greene20%
Justin Ferizaj20%
Graham Burke0%
Chris McCann0%
Sean Hoare0%
Alan Mannus0%
Lee Grace0%
Roberto Lopes0%
Ronan Finn0%
Dylan Watts0%
Andy Lyons0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Richie Towell33%
Rory Gaffney0%
Graham Burke0%
Chris McCann0%
Jack Byrne0%
Dan Cleary0%
Sean Gannon0%
Sean Hoare0%
Alan Mannus0%
Lee Grace0%
Sean Kavanagh0%
Roberto Lopes0%
Ronan Finn0%
Dylan Watts0%
Aaron Greene0%
Andy Lyons0%
Neil Farrugia0%
Gary O'Neill0%
Justin Ferizaj0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ronan Finn20%
Dylan Watts20%
Rory Gaffney0%
Graham Burke0%
Richie Towell0%
Chris McCann0%
Jack Byrne0%
Dan Cleary0%
Sean Gannon0%
Sean Hoare0%
Alan Mannus0%
Lee Grace0%
Sean Kavanagh0%
Roberto Lopes0%
Aaron Greene0%
Andy Lyons0%
Neil Farrugia0%
Gary O'Neill0%
Justin Ferizaj0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
FH (2)
€0m
Derry City's squad is €3m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€4m vs €7m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
Derry City's attack is €2m less valuable than Shamrock Rovers's (€1m vs €3m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
FH (0)
€0m
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
Bohemians
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
UCD
Finn Harps
Waterford