Derry City are tipped to win, with a 49% chance of triumph, a 29% chance of a draw and a 22% chance of a Sligo Rovers win. The model expects 2.3 goals on average, with the most likely total being two goals at 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% probability. Derry have scored 1.25 and conceded 0.75 at home against weaker opposition, while Sligo have scored 1.0 and conceded 2.2 on the road against stronger teams. Suggested picks include Over 2.5 cards at 79.3%, Under 3.5 goals at 78.9% (hit), Under 11.5 corners at 75.9% and Under 5.5 cards at 74.9%. The match is poised for a narrow win for Derry City, who are coming off a draw after a 3-3 stalemate with Shamrock Rovers, while Sligo Rovers enter after a 0-3 loss to Bohemians.
Results analysis
The updated form storyline shows Derry City coming off a draw, while Sligo Rovers are still recovering from a defeat. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win with a 49% probability, and that call proved correct as Derry City edged Sligo Rovers 1-0. The most likely total was two goals, with a 28% chance, and the match’s single goal fell within the model’s Under 3.5 selection, which hit with a 78.9% probability. All suggested picks were settled, and the model’s selection for Under 3.5 was the only hit, confirming the accuracy of the predictions.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Derry City win✓ Hit
49.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers win✗ Miss
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Derry City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.87
1.53
0.87
1.47
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.74
0.68
1.80
0.80
1.67
0.56
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
1.00
1.25
0.75
1.40
1.20
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sligo Rovers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.20
1.50
0.88
1.14
1.57
vs Stronger (10)
1.20
1.40
1.40
0.60
1.00
2.20
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.12
1.40
1.10
1.14
1.14
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.3%
Under 1.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.7%
Under 2.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.1%
Under 3.5
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.4%
No
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0 ✓
12.7%
0-0
10.8%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.0%
Derry City goals ↓
Sligo Rovers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.2%
3.7%
1.1%
0.2%
1
13%
14%
5.5%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.1%
4.0%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.0%
4.4%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Derry City goals (down), columns = Sligo Rovers goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shamrock Rovers
2.19
Derry City
1.83
Dundalk
1.75
St Patrick's Athl.
1.69
Sligo Rovers
1.44
Bohemians
1.28
Shelbourne
1.14
Drogheda United
1.06
UCD
0.78
Finn Harps
0.56
Waterford
0.00
Derry City is 0.39 points better than Sligo Rovers in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shamrock Rovers
1.69
St Patrick's Athl.
1.58
Derry City
1.47
Dundalk
1.39
Sligo Rovers
1.36
Bohemians
1.25
Shelbourne
1.11
Drogheda United
0.94
Finn Harps
0.92
UCD
0.78
Waterford
0.00
Derry City is 0.11 goals better than Sligo Rovers in terms of goals scored per game (1.47 vs 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shamrock Rovers
0.61
Derry City
0.75
Dundalk
0.89
Waterford
1.00
St Patrick's Athl.
1.03
Sligo Rovers
1.14
Bohemians
1.28
Shelbourne
1.36
Drogheda United
1.61
UCD
1.81
Finn Harps
1.97
Derry City is 0.39 goals better than Sligo Rovers in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Derry City
For 3.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 6.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Sligo Rovers
For 5.2 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 8.0 · Total 20.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Derry City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (31)
5.0
5.0
-
0.2
0.4
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
5.0
5.0
-
3.0
6.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
-
3%
7%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
-
97%
93%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sligo Rovers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (35)
10.8
11.0
10.5
0.5
0.8
0.3
20.0
20.0
-
vs Stronger (12)
10.5
12.0
9.0
1.2
2.0
0.7
20.0
20.0
-
vs Similar (19)
11.0
10.0
12.0
0.2
0.4
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
75%
100%
50%
11%
17%
6%
0%
0%
-
% under line
25%
0%
50%
89%
83%
94%
100%
100%
-
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sligo Rovers
10.8
St Patrick's Athl.
10.2
Shamrock Rovers
8.0
Derry City
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
St Patrick's Athl.
7.7
Derry City
6.0
Shamrock Rovers
6.0
Sligo Rovers
4.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Shamrock Rovers
26.7
Sligo Rovers
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.9%
Under 9.5
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.9%
Under 3.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Derry City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.30
0.87
0.27
0.60
0.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.16
1.00
0.20
0.56
0.11
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.44
0.75
0.25
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sligo Rovers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.60
0.75
0.50
0.43
0.71
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
0.50
0.80
0.40
0.60
0.60
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.65
0.60
0.60
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Derry City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Derry City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.57
0.67
0.60
0.87
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.53
0.80
0.60
1.11
0.44
vs Weaker (9)
0.56
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sligo Rovers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sligo Rovers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
0.75
0.38
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.90
0.60
0.20
0.40
1.60
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.47
0.80
0.50
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Derry City) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Derry City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Derry City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sligo Rovers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Derry City · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kévin Santos30%
Ellis Chapman25%
Tyler Smith25%
Michael Duffy24%
James Clarke22%
Afolabi Akinyemi18%
Alex Bannon17%
Liam Boyce14%
Henry Rylah14%
C. Dummigan11%
Adam O'Reilly8%
B. Cotter8%
Darragh Markey6%
Josh Thomas5%
Conor Barr5%
Patrick McClean5%
J. Olayinka4%
C. Winchester0%
Brandon Fleming0%
J. McClean0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Jamie Stott0%
Brian Maher0%
Ben Doherty0%
R. Slevin0%
Darragh Burns0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster67%
Patrick McClean36%
Gavin Whyte33%
Jamie Stott32%
Adam O'Reilly28%
C. Dummigan28%
Darragh Markey28%
J. McClean25%
Darragh Burns25%
Brandon Fleming24%
C. Winchester23%
Josh Thomas21%
B. Cotter20%
Ben Doherty18%
James Clarke17%
Liam Boyce14%
R. Slevin12%
Kévin Santos10%
J. Olayinka8%
Henry Rylah7%
Afolabi Akinyemi6%
Michael Duffy5%
Eddie Beach5%
Ellis Chapman0%
Tyler Smith0%
Brian Maher0%
Nick Twisk0%
Alex Bannon0%
Conor Barr0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Darragh Burns50%
Gavin Whyte33%
J. McClean25%
Michael Duffy19%
Alex Bannon17%
Liam Boyce14%
Kévin Santos10%
Ben Doherty9%
Brandon Fleming8%
Adam O'Reilly8%
Henry Rylah7%
C. Dummigan6%
Jamie Stott5%
Patrick McClean5%
James Clarke4%
J. Olayinka4%
Ellis Chapman0%
C. Winchester0%
Tyler Smith0%
Brian Maher0%
Darragh Markey0%
B. Cotter0%
Afolabi Akinyemi0%
R. Slevin0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Josh Thomas0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
Conor Barr0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Michael Duffy43%
Ellis Chapman25%
Liam Boyce14%
Afolabi Akinyemi6%
Josh Thomas5%
Patrick McClean5%
James Clarke4%
J. Olayinka4%
Brandon Fleming4%
Adam O'Reilly4%
C. Winchester0%
J. McClean0%
Tyler Smith0%
Gavin Whyte0%
Jamie Stott0%
C. Dummigan0%
Brian Maher0%
Darragh Markey0%
B. Cotter0%
Ben Doherty0%
R. Slevin0%
Darragh Burns0%
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster0%
Eddie Beach0%
Nick Twisk0%
Alex Bannon0%
Kévin Santos0%
Henry Rylah0%
Conor Barr0%
Sligo Rovers · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
William Fitzgerald21%
Jad Hakiki17%
Cian Kavanagh13%
Archie Meekison10%
A. Nolan10%
Mai Traore7%
Sean McHale6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
D. Patton5%
Carl McHugh5%
J. Esua4%
G. McElroy4%
S. Sargeant0%
Shane Blaney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Jamie McGonigle0%
Oliver Denham0%
Sean Stewart0%
S. Quirk0%
J. McManus0%
Jack Shorrock0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Luke Pearce0%
Trey George0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ciaron Harkin40%
J. Esua22%
Luke Pearce20%
S. Quirk19%
Carl McHugh18%
J. McManus16%
G. McElroy14%
William Fitzgerald12%
Sean Stewart12%
Oliver Denham12%
Shane Blaney10%
A. Nolan10%
Cian Kavanagh9%
S. Sargeant7%
Mai Traore7%
Sean McHale6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
Archie Meekison5%
D. Patton5%
Jamie McGonigle0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Jack Shorrock0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Trey George0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jamie McGonigle25%
Luke Pearce20%
Archie Meekison14%
William Fitzgerald12%
Cian Kavanagh9%
Sean Stewart6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
A. Nolan5%
Carl McHugh5%
J. Esua4%
S. Sargeant0%
Shane Blaney0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
Mai Traore0%
Oliver Denham0%
S. Quirk0%
J. McManus0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Jack Shorrock0%
G. McElroy0%
D. Patton0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Sean McHale0%
Trey George0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cian Kavanagh22%
Mai Traore7%
S. Quirk6%
Ryan O'Kane6%
A. Nolan5%
S. Sargeant0%
Shane Blaney0%
Carl McHugh0%
Archie Meekison0%
Ciaron Harkin0%
William Fitzgerald0%
J. Esua0%
Jamie McGonigle0%
Oliver Denham0%
Sean Stewart0%
J. McManus0%
Jad Hakiki0%
Jack Shorrock0%
G. McElroy0%
D. Patton0%
Kyle McDonagh0%
Guilherme Rego Priosti0%
Sean McHale0%
Luke Pearce0%
Trey George0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (31)
€7m
SPA (22)
€5m
BOH (23)
€4m
DC (22)
€4m
SHE (22)
€4m
DU (19)
€3m
SR (21)
€3m
DUN (20)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
FH (2)
€0m
Derry City's squad is €1m more valuable than Sligo Rovers's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (14)
€3m
SPA (6)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (7)
€1m
SHE (8)
€1m
SR (10)
€1m
WAT (6)
€1m
DU (4)
€1m
DUN (3)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
Derry City and Sligo Rovers have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (7)
€2m
SPA (7)
€1m
DC (6)
€1m
BOH (5)
€1m
SHE (4)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
DUN (6)
€1m
SR (3)
€1m
DU (4)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
Derry City and Sligo Rovers have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SR (10)
€2m
SPA (9)
€2m
DU (11)
€2m
BOH (9)
€2m
DC (9)
€2m
DUN (11)
€2m
SHE (10)
€2m
SR (8)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
FH (0)
€0m
Derry City and Sligo Rovers have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Ireland: Premier Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: Premier Division stats & trends →
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Shamrock Rovers
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
UCD
Finn Harps
Waterford