Derry City vs Waterford Result & Analysis

Derry City are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 65 % chance of a home win, 20 % for a draw and 15 % for a Waterford victory. The prediction of a 2-1 scoreline, with a 9.8 % probability, reflects the expected 3.3 total goals and the 3-goal average the model expects. Derry’s home form shows they score 1.45 and concede 1.0 against similar opposition, while Waterford’s away form is weaker, conceding 2.62 and scoring only 1.31. The match is expected to produce a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total of three goals. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 85.2 %, Under 25.5 fouls at 74.7 %, Under 11.5 corners at 71.2 %, and Under 5.5 cards at 71.1 %. The model also picks Over 2.5 cards at 82.1 % and Over 19.5 fouls at 72.6 %. The home side’s recent form is shaky after a loss to Bohemians, whereas Waterford remains unbeaten in their last five, but the venue advantage and defensive solidity give Derry the edge.

The upset came early, as Derry City’s home form - coming off a defeat - failed to hold the lead. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was backed by a 65 % probability, yet the match ended 2-4 in favour of Waterford, so the model’s call was wrong. The model’s selection for Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 85.2 % chance, while Over 2.5 cards missed despite an 82.1 % probability. Under 25.5 fouls and Under 11.5 corners also hit, at 74.7 % and 71.2 % respectively, whereas Over 19.5 fouls and Under 5.5 cards missed, at 72.6 % and 71.1 %. Waterford’s unbeaten run of five games carried them to victory.