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Difai Ağsu vs Baku Sportinq Result & Analysis

Date: 12/03/2026
Time: 11:00
Final 1-3
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
Vs
27%
25%
48%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Baku Sportinq
Baku Sportinq
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Difai Ağsu win✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq win✓ Hit
48.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-812L13L03L11D52W04L31W12L18L12LH·MOI27/11H·SUM04/12A·SƏB11/12H·MIN18/12H·CƏB25/12A·ŞAH06/02H·ŞIM13/02A·ZAQ19/02H·SAF25/02A·MOI06/03
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.432.271.472.471.402.07
vs Stronger (12)1.252.330.753.251.501.88
vs Similar (8)1.622.751.802.801.332.67
vs Weaker (10)1.501.801.671.671.252.00
Clean sheet %7% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W01L21W10W21W11D20W21W00D01LA·MIN26/11A·ŞAM03/12H·ŞAH10/12A·ŞIM17/12H·ZAQ24/12A·SAF05/02H·MOI12/02A·CƏB18/02A·SƏB24/02H·MIN05/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.271.291.291.001.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.881.000.881.380.880.62
vs Weaker (14)1.431.571.831.171.121.88
Clean sheet %33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.3%
Under 1.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.4%
Under 2.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.0%
Under 3.5
63.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.4%
No
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
1-2
9.5%
0-2
7.4%
0-1
7.2%
2-1
6.8%
2-2
6.1%
0-0
5.7%
1-3 ✓
5.7%
Difai Ağsu goals ↓
Baku Sportinq goals →
01234
05.7%7.2%7.4%4.4%2.0%
14.9%12%9.5%5.7%2.5%
23.8%6.8%6.1%3.6%1.6%
31.6%2.9%2.6%1.6%0.7%
40.5%0.9%0.8%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Difai Ağsu goals (down), columns = Baku Sportinq goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Safa Baku
2.11
Mingəçevir
1.89
Səbail
1.85
Baku Sportinq
1.81
Şahdağ
1.59
MOIK
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Cəbrayıl
0.89
Şimal
0.82
Difai Ağsu
0.67
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.00
Difai Ağsu is 1.15 points worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.81).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Mingəçevir
2.04
Safa Baku
1.93
Səbail
1.70
Baku Sportinq
1.48
Cəbrayıl
1.48
Şahdağ
1.33
MOIK
1.22
Difai Ağsu
1.04
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Zaqatala
1.00
Şimal
0.89
Difai Ağsu is 0.44 goals worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of goals scored per game (1.04 vs 1.48).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Safa Baku
0.78
Səbail
0.78
Baku Sportinq
0.85
Şahdağ
1.00
Mingəçevir
1.00
MOIK
1.48
Zaqatala
1.63
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
Cəbrayıl
2.07
Şimal
2.21
Difai Ağsu
2.22
Difai Ağsu is 1.37 goals worse than Baku Sportinq in terms of goals conceded per game (2.22 vs 0.85).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L01L11D31W01L20W10W03L01LH·MOI27/11H·SUM04/12A·SƏB11/12H·MIN18/12H·CƏB25/12A·ŞAH06/02H·ŞIM13/02A·ZAQ19/02H·SAF25/02A·MOI06/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.970.731.070.600.87
vs Stronger (12)0.501.080.501.750.500.75
vs Similar (8)0.751.380.801.200.671.67
vs Weaker (10)0.800.500.830.500.750.50
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D21W10W10W00D00D20W00D00DA·MIN26/11A·ŞAM03/12H·ŞAH10/12A·ŞIM17/12H·ZAQ24/12A·SAF05/02H·MOI12/02A·CƏB18/02A·SƏB24/02H·MIN05/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.500.640.500.560.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.440.440.380.750.500.12
vs Weaker (14)0.790.571.000.170.620.88
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Difai Ağsu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L12L02L00D21W03L11D02L15L11DH·MOI27/11H·SUM04/12A·SƏB11/12H·MIN18/12H·CƏB25/12A·ŞAH06/02H·ŞIM13/02A·ZAQ19/02H·SAF25/02A·MOI06/03
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.300.731.400.801.20
vs Stronger (12)0.751.250.251.501.001.12
vs Similar (8)0.881.381.001.600.671.00
vs Weaker (10)0.701.300.831.170.501.50
Clean sheet %30% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Baku Sportinq) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L00D00D11D11D20W01L00D01LA·MIN26/11A·ŞAM03/12H·ŞAH10/12A·ŞIM17/12H·ZAQ24/12A·SAF05/02H·MOI12/02A·CƏB18/02A·SƏB24/02H·MIN05/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.770.640.790.440.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.440.560.500.620.380.50
vs Weaker (14)0.641.000.831.000.501.00
Clean sheet %47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Difai Ağsu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Baku Sportinq over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (5)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
SƏB (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (2)
€0m
SƏB (1)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SB (8)
€3m
SƏB (3)
€1m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
DA wins
1
Draws
1
BS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Difai Ağsu vs Baku Sportinq · H/A from DA
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/25ABaku Sportinq Vs DA2-2
08/05/25ABaku Sportinq Vs DA1-2
06/03/25HDA Vs Baku Sportinq0-1
11/12/24ABaku Sportinq Vs DA0-2

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/03/26AMOIK Vs DA2-1
25/02/26HDA Vs Safa Baku1-8
19/02/26AZaqatala Vs DA2-1
13/02/26HDA Vs Şimal3-1
06/02/26AŞahdağ Vs DA4-0
25/12/25HDA Vs Cəbrayıl5-2
18/12/25HDA Vs Mingəçevir1-1
11/12/25ASəbail Vs DA3-0
04/12/25HDA Vs Sumqayıt1-3
27/11/25HDA Vs MOIK1-2

Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/03/26HBS Vs Mingəçevir0-1
24/02/26ASəbail Vs BS0-0
18/02/26ACəbrayıl Vs BS1-2
12/02/26HBS Vs MOIK2-0
05/02/26ASafa Baku Vs BS1-1
24/12/25HBS Vs Zaqatala2-1
17/12/25AŞimal Vs BS0-1
10/12/25HBS Vs Şahdağ2-1
03/12/25AŞamaxı FK Vs BS1-0
26/11/25AMingəçevir Vs BS1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLL0.88
HomeLDWWL0.80
AwayDLLLL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%20%24%
AVG goals3.463.523.40
Over 1.5 %84%80%88%
Over 2.5 %68%64%72%
Over 3.5 %48%44%52%
Scored1.321.321.32
Conceded2.142.202.08
BTTS66%76%56%
Clean Sheet6%4%8%
Corners---
Cards---
Baku Sportinq
Baku Sportinq
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDL1.36
HomeDWWWL1.23
AwayLWDWD1.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%32%40%
AVG goals2.342.232.44
Over 1.5 %66%64%68%
Over 2.5 %45%41%48%
Over 3.5 %23%23%24%
Scored1.021.001.04
Conceded1.321.231.40
BTTS45%36%52%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Safa BakuSafa Baku2757
59%
2.1
5221+31
2.7
74%
48%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1031.90.8
-
2MingəçevirMingəçevir2751
56%
1.9
5527+28
3.0
85%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
3SəbailSəbail2750
52%
1.9
4621+25
2.5
59%
48%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.70.8
-
4Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2749
48%
1.8
4023+17
2.3
70%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.9
-
5ŞahdağŞahdağ2743
44%
1.6
3627+9
2.3
63%
41%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.0
-
6MOIKMOIK2733
33%
1.2
3340-7
2.7
81%
56%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
30%
1.0
2744-17
2.6
59%
52%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2724
26%
0.9
4056-16
3.6
81%
67%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
9ŞimalŞimal2823
21%
0.8
2562-37
3.1
71%
54%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.2
-
10Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2718
15%
0.7
2860-32
3.3
89%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
11Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan10
0%
0.0
12-1
3.0
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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