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Difai Ağsu vs Mingəçevir Result & Analysis

Date: 09/11/2023
Time: 10:00
Final 0-1
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
Vs
35%
29%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Difai Ağsu win✗ Miss
34.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir win✓ Hit
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-503L00D02L01L25L03L02LH·MOI14/09H·ZAQ21/09A·KAR29/09H·QAR04/10A·ARA19/10H·IMI25/10A·ŞAM01/11
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.292.290.001.750.673.00
vs Stronger (2)0.002.000.002.00--
vs Similar (4)0.503.000.003.000.673.00
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %14% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L01L11D14L02L20W11D32W03L02LH·MOI04/05A·QAR16/05H·SƏB23/05A·KAR13/09H·QAR21/09A·ARA29/09H·IMI05/10A·ŞAM20/10A·MOI26/10H·İRƏ01/11
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.671.900.641.430.692.31
vs Stronger (29)0.621.900.541.380.692.31
vs Similar (1)2.002.002.002.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%017%127%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.3%
Under 2.5
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.6%
Under 3.5
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.5%
No
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-0
9.0%
0-1 ✓
8.7%
1-0
8.5%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.0%
0-2
6.5%
2-0
6.2%
Difai Ağsu goals ↓
Mingəçevir goals →
01234
09.0%8.7%6.5%2.8%0.9%
18.5%14%8.2%3.6%1.2%
26.2%8.0%5.2%2.3%0.7%
32.6%3.4%2.2%0.9%0.3%
40.8%1.1%0.7%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Difai Ağsu goals (down), columns = Mingəçevir goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Şamaxı FK
2.11
Qaradağ Lökbatan
2.00
MOIK
1.81
Imisli FK
1.74
Karvan
1.63
İrəvan
1.11
Zaqatala
1.04
Mingəçevir
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.85
Araz Saatlı
0.48
Difai Ağsu is 0.15 points worse than Mingəçevir in terms of average points per game (0.85 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Şamaxı FK
2.22
MOIK
1.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.70
Karvan
1.48
Imisli FK
1.41
İrəvan
1.30
Difai Ağsu
1.22
Zaqatala
1.04
Araz Saatlı
1.04
Mingəçevir
0.74
Difai Ağsu is 0.48 goals better than Mingəçevir in terms of goals scored per game (1.22 vs 0.74).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Imisli FK
0.78
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.78
Şamaxı FK
0.81
MOIK
1.04
Karvan
1.26
Zaqatala
1.37
Mingəçevir
1.44
Difai Ağsu
1.59
İrəvan
2.07
Araz Saatlı
2.96
Difai Ağsu is 0.15 goals worse than Mingəçevir in terms of goals conceded per game (1.59 vs 1.44).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D01L10W02L02LH·MOI14/09H·ZAQ21/09A·KAR29/09H·QAR04/10A·ARA19/10H·IMI25/10A·ŞAM01/11
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.140.860.001.000.330.67
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (4)0.251.000.002.000.330.67
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D01L01L00D20W10W21W02L01LH·MOI04/05A·QAR16/05H·SƏB23/05A·KAR13/09H·QAR21/09A·ARA29/09H·IMI05/10A·ŞAM20/10A·MOI26/10H·İRƏ01/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.370.730.360.570.380.88
vs Stronger (29)0.340.760.310.620.380.88
vs Similar (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Difai Ağsu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L00D02L00D15L01L00DH·MOI14/09H·ZAQ21/09A·KAR29/09H·QAR04/10A·ARA19/10H·IMI25/10A·ŞAM01/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.141.430.000.750.332.33
vs Stronger (2)0.001.000.001.00--
vs Similar (4)0.252.000.001.000.332.33
vs Weaker (1)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L10W13L02L00D01L11D01L01LH·MOI04/05A·QAR16/05H·SƏB23/05A·KAR13/09H·QAR21/09A·ARA29/09H·IMI05/10A·ŞAM20/10A·MOI26/10H·İRƏ01/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.170.290.860.311.44
vs Stronger (29)0.281.140.230.770.311.44
vs Similar (1)1.002.001.002.00--
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Difai Ağsu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.574.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.573.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
ŞF (15)
€4m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ŞF (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
DA wins
0
Draws
0
MIN wins

Head-to-head

Difai Ağsu vs Mingəçevir · H/A from DA
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/11/23AŞamaxı FK Vs DA2-0
25/10/23HDA Vs Imisli FK0-3
19/10/23AAraz Saatlı Vs DA5-2
04/10/23HDA Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-1
29/09/23AKarvan Vs DA2-0
21/09/23HDA Vs Zaqatala0-0
14/09/23HDA Vs MOIK0-3

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/11/23HMIN Vs İrəvan0-2
26/10/23AMOIK Vs MIN3-0
20/10/23AŞamaxı FK Vs MIN2-3
05/10/23HMIN Vs Imisli FK1-1
29/09/23AAraz Saatlı Vs MIN0-2
21/09/23HMIN Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan0-2
13/09/23AKarvan Vs MIN4-1
23/05/23HMIN Vs Səbail II1-1
16/05/23AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs MIN1-0
04/05/23HMIN Vs MOIK0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 0 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL0.14
HomeLDLL0.25
AwayLLL0.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %0%0%0%
AVG goals2.571.753.67
Over 1.5 %71%50%100%
Over 2.5 %43%50%33%
Over 3.5 %14%0%33%
Scored0.290.000.67
Conceded2.291.753.00
BTTS14%0%33%
Clean Sheet14%25%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLL0.69
HomeLDLDL0.88
AwayLLWWL0.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %17%18%17%
AVG goals2.892.593.17
Over 1.5 %86%88%83%
Over 2.5 %51%29%72%
Over 3.5 %29%24%33%
Scored0.940.881.00
Conceded1.941.712.17
BTTS43%47%39%
Clean Sheet11%12%11%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK2757
59%
2.1
6022+38
3.0
74%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.20.8
-
2Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2754
56%
2.0
4621+25
2.5
74%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
3MOIKMOIK2749
52%
1.8
5328+25
3.0
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
4Imisli FKImisli FK2747
48%
1.7
3821+17
2.2
63%
52%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.40.8
-
5KarvanKarvan2744
48%
1.6
4034+6
2.7
59%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.3
-
6İrəvanİrəvan2730
33%
1.1
3556-21
3.4
78%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
7ZaqatalaZaqatala2728
22%
1.0
2837-9
2.4
85%
41%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
-
8MingəçevirMingəçevir2727
26%
1.0
2039-19
2.2
56%
37%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.4
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2723
19%
0.9
3343-10
2.8
70%
52%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Araz SaatlıAraz Saatlı2713
15%
0.5
2880-52
4.0
89%
70%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.03.0
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

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