PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Difai Ağsu vs Mingəçevir Result & Analysis

Date: 01/05/2025
Time: 13:00
Final 1-4
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
Vs
46%
29%
25%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Difai Ağsu win✗ Miss
46.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir win✓ Hit
24.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-511D21W01L01L40W31W35L04L10W13LA·ZAQ14/02H·QAR20/02A·MIN28/02H·BAK06/03A·CƏB13/03A·MOI27/03H·KAR03/04A·QAB11/04H·ZAQ17/04A·QAR24/04
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.871.361.791.311.94
vs Stronger (11)1.362.000.751.001.712.57
vs Similar (10)0.802.501.003.500.671.83
vs Weaker (9)1.891.002.001.171.670.67
Clean sheet %13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W10W10W10W02L22D00D02L40WH·CƏB13/02A·BAK20/02H·DIF28/02A·IMI07/03H·MOI14/03A·QAB28/03H·ZAQ03/04A·QAR10/04A·CƏB17/04H·BAK24/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.431.131.000.671.87
vs Stronger (22)0.951.411.201.000.751.75
vs Similar (5)1.201.401.251.251.002.00
vs Weaker (3)0.001.670.000.000.002.50
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.4%
Under 1.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.5%
Under 2.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
24.1%
Under 3.5
75.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.6%
No
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0
10.9%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
9.2%
2-0
9.0%
0-1
7.2%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.7%
Difai Ağsu goals ↓
Mingəçevir goals →
01234
09.5%7.2%4.3%1.5%0.4%
111%14%6.3%2.2%0.6%
29.0%9.2%4.7%1.6%0.4%
34.4%4.5%2.3%0.8%0.2%
41.6%1.7%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Difai Ağsu goals (down), columns = Mingəçevir goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qabala
2.48
Imisli FK
1.93
Karvan
1.74
Mingəçevir
1.30
Zaqatala
1.26
MOIK
1.11
Baku Sportinq
1.04
Cəbrayıl
1.00
Difai Ağsu
0.96
Qaradağ Lökbatan
0.89
Difai Ağsu is 0.33 points worse than Mingəçevir in terms of average points per game (0.96 vs 1.30).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qabala
2.07
Karvan
1.96
Imisli FK
1.59
Difai Ağsu
1.33
Zaqatala
1.30
Mingəçevir
1.11
MOIK
1.00
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.00
Cəbrayıl
0.85
Baku Sportinq
0.78
Difai Ağsu is 0.22 goals better than Mingəçevir in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 1.11).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Qabala
0.30
Imisli FK
0.74
Cəbrayıl
1.26
Zaqatala
1.26
Mingəçevir
1.33
Karvan
1.37
Baku Sportinq
1.59
MOIK
1.59
Qaradağ Lökbatan
1.63
Difai Ağsu
1.93
Difai Ağsu is 0.59 goals worse than Mingəçevir in terms of goals conceded per game (1.93 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L21W00D01L20W20W14L03L10W10WA·ZAQ14/02H·QAR20/02A·MIN28/02H·BAK06/03A·CƏB13/03A·MOI27/03H·KAR03/04A·QAB11/04H·ZAQ17/04A·QAR24/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.770.640.710.810.81
vs Stronger (11)1.000.730.750.501.140.86
vs Similar (10)0.401.300.251.750.501.00
vs Weaker (9)0.780.220.830.170.670.33
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D00D00D10W00D02L10W00D01L20WH·CƏB13/02A·BAK20/02H·DIF28/02A·IMI07/03H·MOI14/03A·QAB28/03H·ZAQ03/04A·QAR10/04A·CƏB17/04H·BAK24/04
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.270.670.330.530.200.80
vs Stronger (22)0.270.730.300.700.250.75
vs Similar (5)0.400.400.500.250.001.00
vs Weaker (3)0.000.670.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Difai Ağsu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D01L00D20W11D21W01L00D03LA·ZAQ14/02H·QAR20/02A·MIN28/02H·BAK06/03A·CƏB13/03A·MOI27/03H·KAR03/04A·QAB11/04H·ZAQ17/04A·QAR24/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.100.711.070.501.12
vs Stronger (11)0.361.270.000.500.571.71
vs Similar (10)0.401.200.751.750.170.83
vs Weaker (9)1.110.781.171.001.000.33
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Mingəçevir) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W00D10W00D12L00D01L20WH·CƏB13/02A·BAK20/02H·DIF28/02A·IMI07/03H·MOI14/03A·QAB28/03H·ZAQ03/04A·QAR10/04A·CƏB17/04H·BAK24/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.770.800.470.471.07
vs Stronger (22)0.680.680.900.300.501.00
vs Similar (5)0.801.000.751.001.001.00
vs Weaker (3)0.001.000.000.000.001.50
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Difai Ağsu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Difai Ağsu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Difai Ağsu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mingəçevir over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.575.9%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.572.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (18)
€6m
QAB (18)
€5m
KAR (4)
€1m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (2)
€0m
CƏB (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
MIN (2)
€0m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAB (3)
€1m
IF (2)
€1m
CƏB (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
KAR (0)
€0m
ZAQ (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
IF (9)
€3m
QAB (10)
€3m
ZAQ (1)
€0m
KAR (1)
€0m
MIN (0)
€0m
CƏB (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
DA wins
2
Draws
2
MIN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Difai Ağsu vs Mingəçevir · H/A from DA
DateH/AGameScore
28/02/25AMingəçevir Vs DA1-0
28/11/24HDA Vs Mingəçevir3-3
01/05/24HDA Vs Mingəçevir4-1
29/02/24AMingəçevir Vs DA1-1
09/11/23HDA Vs Mingəçevir0-1

Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/04/25AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs DA3-1
17/04/25HDA Vs Zaqatala1-0
11/04/25AQabala Vs DA4-0
03/04/25HDA Vs Karvan3-5
27/03/25AMOIK Vs DA1-3
13/03/25ACəbrayıl Vs DA0-4
06/03/25HDA Vs Baku Sportinq0-1
28/02/25AMingəçevir Vs DA1-0
20/02/25HDA Vs Qaradağ Lökbatan2-1
14/02/25AZaqatala Vs DA1-1

MingəçevirMingəçevir

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/04/25HMIN Vs Baku Sportinq4-0
17/04/25ACəbrayıl Vs MIN2-0
10/04/25AQaradağ Lökbatan Vs MIN0-0
03/04/25HMIN Vs Zaqatala2-2
28/03/25AQabala Vs MIN2-0
14/03/25HMIN Vs MOIK1-0
07/03/25AImisli FK Vs MIN0-1
28/02/25HMIN Vs Difai Ağsu1-0
20/02/25ABaku Sportinq Vs MIN0-1
13/02/25HMIN Vs Cəbrayıl0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLWL0.90
HomeLWLLW1.13
AwayLWWLL0.70
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%30%15%
AVG goals3.142.873.37
Over 1.5 %70%61%78%
Over 2.5 %56%52%59%
Over 3.5 %48%39%56%
Scored1.321.391.26
Conceded1.821.482.11
BTTS48%43%52%
Clean Sheet20%22%19%
Corners---
Cards---
Mingəçevir
Mingəçevir
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLW1.10
HomeDWWDW1.21
AwayWWLDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%29%27%
AVG goals2.221.962.46
Over 1.5 %58%50%65%
Over 2.5 %40%29%50%
Over 3.5 %26%25%27%
Scored0.840.960.73
Conceded1.381.001.73
BTTS34%38%31%
Clean Sheet34%38%31%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QabalaQabala2767
78%
2.5
568+48
2.4
70%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1132.10.3
-
2Imisli FKImisli FK2752
56%
1.9
4320+23
2.3
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3131.60.7
-
3KarvanKarvan2747
48%
1.7
5337+16
3.3
93%
56%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.01.4
-
4MingəçevirMingəçevir2735
33%
1.3
3036-6
2.4
67%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
5ZaqatalaZaqatala2734
30%
1.3
3534+1
2.6
67%
48%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
6MOIKMOIK2730
30%
1.1
2743-16
2.6
63%
59%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
7Baku SportinqBaku Sportinq2728
26%
1.0
2143-22
2.4
63%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.6
-
8CəbrayılCəbrayıl2727
26%
1.0
2334-11
2.1
70%
41%
11%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
-
9Difai AğsuDifai Ağsu2726
26%
1.0
3652-16
3.3
70%
59%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
10Qaradağ LökbatanQaradağ Lökbatan2724
19%
0.9
2744-17
2.6
70%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.6
-
Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Birinci Dasta stats & trends →

← all matches