This opponent (Metz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.83
0.94
1.94
0.79
1.71
vs Stronger (10)
0.90
2.10
0.88
2.38
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.92
1.62
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.78
vs Weaker (7)
0.71
1.86
1.25
1.75
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Dijon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.5%
Under 2.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.3%
No
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.1%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.5%
2-0
8.9%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
6.3%
0-1
6.3%
2-2
5.0%
Dijon goals ↓
Metz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.2%
6.3%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.3%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.5%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.7%
5.0%
2.7%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.9%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dijon goals (down), columns = Metz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.45
Monaco
2.11
Lyon
2.05
Marseille
2.03
Rennes
1.53
Saint Etienne
1.45
Bordeaux
1.45
Nice
1.42
Nantes
1.37
Montpellier
1.34
Dijon
1.26
Guingamp
1.24
Amiens
1.18
Angers
1.08
Lille
1.00
Caen
1.00
Strasbourg
1.00
Toulouse
0.97
Estac Troyes
0.87
Metz
0.68
Dijon is 0.58 points better than Metz in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 0.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.84
Lyon
2.29
Monaco
2.24
Marseille
2.11
Dijon
1.45
Nice
1.39
Bordeaux
1.39
Rennes
1.32
Guingamp
1.26
Saint Etienne
1.24
Strasbourg
1.16
Angers
1.11
Lille
1.08
Toulouse
1.00
Amiens
0.97
Nantes
0.95
Montpellier
0.95
Metz
0.89
Estac Troyes
0.84
Caen
0.71
Dijon is 0.55 goals better than Metz in terms of goals scored per game (1.45 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.76
Montpellier
0.87
Nantes
1.08
Amiens
1.11
Lyon
1.13
Rennes
1.16
Monaco
1.18
Marseille
1.24
Bordeaux
1.26
Saint Etienne
1.32
Nice
1.37
Angers
1.37
Caen
1.37
Toulouse
1.42
Guingamp
1.55
Estac Troyes
1.55
Lille
1.76
Strasbourg
1.76
Dijon
1.92
Metz
2.00
Dijon is 0.08 goals better than Metz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.92 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dijon
For 4.0 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.1 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Metz
For 4.7 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.1 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 12.3 · Total 27.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Dijon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.7
10.9
3.7
3.4
4.0
26.3
26.2
26.4
vs Stronger (41)
10.3
9.7
11.0
3.7
3.5
4.0
25.5
25.6
25.4
vs Similar (9)
10.1
9.8
10.4
3.3
2.5
4.0
30.0
29.2
30.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
54%
52%
56%
52%
44%
60%
80%
84%
76%
% under line
46%
48%
44%
48%
56%
40%
20%
16%
24%
This opponent (Metz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.1
9.0
3.6
3.6
3.5
25.9
26.1
25.7
vs Stronger (17)
10.2
10.8
9.2
3.5
3.8
3.0
25.2
26.4
23.0
vs Similar (23)
8.7
8.2
9.1
3.3
3.6
3.1
26.6
26.0
27.1
vs Weaker (10)
7.9
7.2
8.6
4.2
3.2
5.2
25.6
25.8
25.4
% over line
40%
35%
46%
50%
58%
42%
84%
85%
83%
% under line
60%
65%
54%
50%
42%
58%
16%
15%
17%
This opponent (Dijon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Estac Troyes
11.3
Paris Saint Germain
10.7
Lyon
10.6
Monaco
10.6
Strasbourg
10.4
Guingamp
10.4
Dijon
10.3
Nantes
10.0
Marseille
9.8
Saint Etienne
9.7
Caen
9.4
Angers
9.3
Rennes
9.3
Lille
9.2
Toulouse
9.1
Bordeaux
9.1
Metz
9.1
Montpellier
9.0
Amiens
8.6
Nice
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Toulouse
4.8
Amiens
4.4
Lyon
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Rennes
4.2
Nice
4.2
Angers
4.2
Bordeaux
4.2
Nantes
4.1
Saint Etienne
3.9
Estac Troyes
3.8
Lille
3.7
Montpellier
3.7
Caen
3.7
Dijon
3.7
Guingamp
3.6
Metz
3.6
Monaco
3.4
Marseille
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Toulouse
28.5
Lyon
28.3
Lille
27.6
Guingamp
27.2
Amiens
26.6
Rennes
26.5
Bordeaux
26.4
Dijon
26.3
Monaco
26.2
Nice
26.0
Metz
25.9
Saint Etienne
25.8
Caen
25.2
Strasbourg
24.7
Montpellier
24.6
Nantes
24.4
Marseille
24.0
Angers
23.9
Estac Troyes
23.8
Paris Saint Germain
23.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.1%
Under 9.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.4%
Under 3.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
84.4%
Under 21.5
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dijon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.81
0.44
0.57
0.71
vs Stronger (25)
0.72
0.52
0.92
0.38
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (5)
0.60
0.80
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.31
0.69
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.80
0.25
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.54
0.25
0.50
0.56
0.56
vs Weaker (7)
0.29
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Dijon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dijon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dijon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dijon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dijon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.00
0.69
0.75
0.36
1.29
vs Stronger (25)
0.48
1.12
0.54
0.92
0.42
1.33
vs Similar (5)
0.80
0.40
1.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.17
0.62
1.25
0.36
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
1.30
0.62
1.62
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (13)
0.46
1.08
0.50
0.75
0.44
1.22
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
1.14
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Dijon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dijon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dijon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dijon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Dijon · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jordan Marié25%
Adel Lembezat25%
Samy Chouchane25%
Paul Delecroix0%
Quentin Bernard0%
Mickaël Barreto0%
Yanis Barka0%
Júlio Tavares0%
Ismail Bouleghcha0%
Paul Bellon0%
Lenny Lacroix0%
Brandon Ndezi0%
Alexis Ntamack0%
Ylan Aka0%
Tyris Dong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lenny Lacroix50%
Adel Lembezat25%
Paul Bellon25%
Brandon Ndezi25%
Tyris Dong25%
Paul Delecroix0%
Quentin Bernard0%
Mickaël Barreto0%
Yanis Barka0%
Jordan Marié0%
Júlio Tavares0%
Ismail Bouleghcha0%
Samy Chouchane0%
Alexis Ntamack0%
Ylan Aka0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Júlio Tavares25%
Paul Bellon25%
Paul Delecroix0%
Quentin Bernard0%
Mickaël Barreto0%
Yanis Barka0%
Jordan Marié0%
Adel Lembezat0%
Ismail Bouleghcha0%
Lenny Lacroix0%
Samy Chouchane0%
Brandon Ndezi0%
Alexis Ntamack0%
Ylan Aka0%
Tyris Dong0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alexis Ntamack50%
Yanis Barka25%
Adel Lembezat25%
Samy Chouchane25%
Paul Delecroix0%
Quentin Bernard0%
Mickaël Barreto0%
Jordan Marié0%
Júlio Tavares0%
Ismail Bouleghcha0%
Paul Bellon0%
Lenny Lacroix0%
Brandon Ndezi0%
Ylan Aka0%
Tyris Dong0%
Metz · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Idris Mohamed67%
Nampalys Mendy25%
Florian Miguel25%
Jessy Deminguet25%
Pape Moussa Fall25%
Jean Ruiz0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jessy Deminguet25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Pape Moussa Fall0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
MET (26)
€43m
ET (23)
€36m
MON (24)
€29m
GUI (20)
€11m
DIJ (20)
€5m
AMI (14)
€4m
CAE (18)
€4m
Dijon's squad is €38m less valuable than Metz's (€5m vs €43m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
ET (7)
€7m
GUI (4)
€3m
CAE (8)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
AMI (4)
€0m
Dijon's attack is €16m less valuable than Metz's (€1m vs €17m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
NIC (9)
€31m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
DIJ (6)
€2m
CAE (4)
€1m
AMI (2)
€0m
Dijon's midfield is €16m less valuable than Metz's (€2m vs €18m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
ET (10)
€17m
MON (10)
€12m
MET (10)
€8m
AMI (8)
€4m
GUI (8)
€3m
CAE (6)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Dijon's defence is €6m less valuable than Metz's (€2m vs €8m).
France: Ligue 1 2017/18 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Paris Saint Germain
Monaco
Lyon
Marseille
Rennes
Bordeaux
Saint Etienne
Nice
Nantes
Montpellier
Guingamp
Amiens
Angers
Strasbourg
Caen
Lille
Toulouse
Estac Troyes