Dila’s recent five-game run of LDWWW, after a narrow 1-2 loss to Dinamo Tbilisi, sets the stage for a home advantage that the model rates highly. The Pythia system favours a Dila victory with a 62% chance, reflecting the team’s strong home form - scoring an average of 2.25 goals while conceding only 0.75 against weaker opponents. Gagra, playing away, has struggled on the road, averaging 1.56 goals scored and 2.0 conceded to stronger teams, which explains the 17% chance of an away win and a 21% draw probability.
The expected total goals is 3.3, with the most likely total of three goals at a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Dila, carrying a 9.8% chance. The model’s suggested picks include Under 11.5 corners (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%), Under 10.5 corners (98.6%), Under 7.5 (97.9%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Under 9.5 corners (96.8%) and Under 6.5 (94.7%). Each selection is presented with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are given win probabilities.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dila win
61.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Gagra win
16.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dila
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.27
2.06
1.18
1.62
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.53
1.60
1.75
1.38
1.29
1.86
vs Weaker (13)
2.23
0.69
2.25
0.75
2.20
0.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.57
1.53
1.13
1.33
2.00
vs Stronger (16)
1.50
1.69
1.43
1.29
1.56
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.36
1.43
1.62
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.4%
Under 1.5
14.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.7%
Under 2.5
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.6%
Under 3.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.5%
No
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.7%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
7.3%
1-0
7.1%
3-0
6.6%
2-2
5.4%
1-2
4.8%
Dila goals ↓
Gagra goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
3.1%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
1
7.1%
9.7%
4.8%
1.8%
0.5%
2
8.9%
9.8%
5.4%
2.0%
0.5%
3
6.6%
7.3%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
4
3.7%
4.0%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dila goals (down), columns = Gagra goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Dila is 0.20 points worse than Gagra in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Dila is 1.04 goals better than Gagra in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Dila is 0.59 goals worse than Gagra in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.12).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dila
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Gagra
For 1.0 · Against 4.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dila
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (23)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
5.0
-
5.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (29)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
5.0
-
5.0
0.1
0.0
0.3
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
-
100%
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dila) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.0
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Saburtalo
4.9
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dila
30.7
Saburtalo
30.0
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.2%
Under 9.5
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
73.6%
Under 3.5
26.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dila or Draw
83.2%
Avg Implied -
62%
21%
17%
covers Dila + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dila or Gagra
78.8%
Avg Implied -
62%
21%
17%
covers Dila + Gagra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Gagra
38.1%
Avg Implied -
62%
21%
17%
covers Draw + Gagra
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Dila over/under 0.5
Over
89.2%
Under
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5
Over
65.2%
Under
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5
Over
38.5%
Under
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 3.5
Over
18.6%
Under
81.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 0.5
Over
66.8%
Under
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5
Over
30.2%
Under
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5
Over
10.0%
Under
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Dila, so a minus line means Dila give that many goals of a start and Gagra receive them. At -1, Dila must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Dila win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Dila)
Dila -2
21.3%
Draw -2
18.8%
Gagra +2
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Dila)
Dila -1
40.1%
Draw -1
21.8%
Gagra +1
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Dila)
Dila +1
83.2%
Draw +1
10.4%
Gagra -1
6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Dila)
Dila +2
93.5%
Draw +2
4.6%
Gagra -2
1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dila
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.65
0.47
0.62
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.73
0.38
0.50
0.43
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.31
0.88
0.38
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.75
0.86
0.43
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.57
0.50
0.38
0.17
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.3%
Under 0.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.3%
Under 1.5
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.0%
Under 2.5
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dila over/under 0.5 HT
Over
58.1%
Under
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 HT
Over
22.5%
Under
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 HT
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.6%
Under
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.2%
Under
92.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dila
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.70
1.41
0.71
1.00
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
1.13
0.87
1.38
0.88
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
0.38
1.38
0.38
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Gagra) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Gagra
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
0.87
0.73
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (16)
0.75
0.94
0.57
0.86
0.89
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.86
1.12
0.62
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.6%
Under 0.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.4%
Under 1.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
25.4%
Under 2.5
74.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dila over/under 0.5 2H
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 2H
Over
31.2%
Under
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 0.5 2H
Over
45.8%
Under
54.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Gagra over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 11.5 corners
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 8.5 corners
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Dila's squad is €2m more valuable than Gagra's (€4m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Dila and Gagra have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Dila and Gagra have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Dila's defence is €1m more valuable than Gagra's (€2m vs €1m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →