Dila is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 65% chance of securing a home win, according to the Pythia prediction model. This is largely due to Meshakhte's struggles on the road, where they average just 0.5 goals scored per match against stronger opponents. In contrast, Dila excels at home, scoring 2.44 goals per match and conceding just 0.89 goals.
The model predicts a low-scoring match, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0 in favour of Dila, with a probability of 17.6%. The expected total number of goals is 2.2, and the most likely total number of goals is 2.
The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, which has an 82% chance of occurring. Dila's home win is their most likely match result, with a 65% chance of success. The away win percentage for Meshakhte is 10%. The draw percentage is 25%.
Results analysis
Today was a tough day for the Pythia prediction model's selections, as several of the picks failed to materialize despite their probabilities. The win extends Dila's run of three consecutive victories at home, where they've been averaging 2.44 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per match.
The final score of 3-1 was a correct call for the model's selection, Home win, which had a 65% pre-match probability. The model's call was correct, as indicated by the actual result. However, the model's selection of Home win did not come with the predicted 2-0 score, which had a 15.6% probability.
The model's suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals, with an 82% probability, missed, as the final score was 3-1.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Dila win✓ Hit
64.9%
Avg Implied 68.6% · @ 1.31
Edge
-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.40
Dafabet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Betano
1.32
888Sport
1.30
Draw✗ Miss
25.1%
Avg Implied 20.5% · @ 4.39
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.75
Pinnacle
4.69
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
Dafabet
4.50
Meshakhte win✗ Miss
10.1%
Avg Implied 10.9% · @ 8.24
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
9.90
Marathonbet
9.40
William Hil
8.50
888Sport
8.50
Pinnacle
8.21
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Dila
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.23
2.12
1.25
1.79
1.21
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
1.64
1.43
1.71
1.29
1.57
1.57
vs Weaker (14)
2.29
0.86
2.38
1.00
2.17
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Meshakhte
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.00
1.12
1.00
0.79
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.87
0.91
0.92
0.83
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.33
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
65.5%
@ 1.20-11.4%
Under 1.5
34.5%
@ 3.98+11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.22
888Sport
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
888Sport
3.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
37.7%
@ 1.69-16.8%
Under 2.5
62.3%
@ 2.02+16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
Pinnacle
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.68
888Sport
1.67
Under
Betfair
2.10
Pinnacle
2.10
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.04
Bet365
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
18.0%
@ 2.71-15.8%
Under 3.5
82.0%
@ 1.39+15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
888Sport
2.75
Pinnacle
2.70
Marathonbet
2.62
1xBet
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
888Sport
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
34.0%
@ 2.01-11.5%
No
66.0%
@ 1.68+11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.06
Betfair
2.05
William Hil
1.95
888Sport
1.95
No
Betfair
1.73
888Sport
1.70
William Hil
1.70
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.6%@ 6.08+10.7%
2-0
15.6%@ 5.75+8.3%
0-0
12.1%@ 11.33+8.4%
1-1
10.7%@ 7.98+5.4%
3-0
8.7%@ 7.60+3.2%
2-1
8.1%@ 7.70+2.7%
0-1
4.8%@ 17.33+2.4%
3-1 ✓
4.6%@ 10.68+0.6%
Dila goals ↓
Meshakhte goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
4.8%
1.5%
0.3%
0.0%
1
18%
11%
2.5%
0.4%
0.1%
2
16%
8.1%
2.1%
0.4%
0.0%
3
8.7%
4.6%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
4
3.7%
1.9%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Dila goals (down), columns = Meshakhte goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Rustavi
2.38
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.14
Dinamo Batumi
2.00
Samgurali
1.75
Gagra
1.62
Dila
1.43
Saburtalo
1.17
Torpedo Kutaisi
0.62
Meshakhte
0.50
Spaeri
0.38
Dila is 0.93 points better than Meshakhte in terms of average points per game (1.43 vs 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Dinamo Tbilisi
2.57
Dila
2.29
Dinamo Batumi
2.12
Samgurali
1.88
Rustavi
1.62
Saburtalo
1.33
Gagra
1.25
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.25
Spaeri
1.00
Meshakhte
0.88
Dila is 1.41 goals better than Meshakhte in terms of goals scored per game (2.29 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Rustavi
0.75
Gagra
1.12
Dinamo Batumi
1.12
Saburtalo
1.67
Dinamo Tbilisi
1.71
Dila
1.71
Torpedo Kutaisi
1.88
Spaeri
2.00
Meshakhte
2.00
Samgurali
2.12
Dila is 0.29 goals better than Meshakhte in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Saburtalo
55%
Meshakhte
50%
Gagra
46%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Dila
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Meshakhte
For 3.0 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Dila
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Meshakhte
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (43)
5.0
5.0
5.0
0.2
0.1
0.3
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
5.0
-
5.0
1.2
0.0
2.3
-
-
-
vs Similar (33)
5.0
5.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
2%
0%
5%
-
-
-
% under line
100%
100%
100%
98%
100%
95%
-
-
-
This opponent (Dila) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
10.2
Saburtalo
9.7
Dila
8.9
Dinamo Tbilisi
7.8
Dinamo Batumi
7.0
Meshakhte
5.0
Gagra
5.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Torpedo Kutaisi
6.3
Saburtalo
5.3
Dila
5.2
Meshakhte
5.0
Dinamo Batumi
4.5
Dinamo Tbilisi
3.2
Gagra
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Saburtalo
46.0
Dila
30.7
Torpedo Kutaisi
28.0
Dinamo Tbilisi
25.0
Dinamo Batumi
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.4%
@ 2.10-40.6%
Under 9.5
96.6%
@ 1.65+40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.65
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
82.3%
Under 3.5
17.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Dila or Draw✓ Hit
89.9%
Avg Implied -
65%
25%
10%
covers Dila + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dila or Meshakhte✓ Hit
74.9%
Avg Implied -
65%
25%
10%
covers Dila + Meshakhte
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Meshakhte✗ Miss
35.1%
Avg Implied -
65%
25%
10%
covers Draw + Meshakhte
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Dila
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.62
0.56
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.71
0.29
0.57
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.43
0.88
0.50
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Meshakhte
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.37
0.31
0.38
0.29
0.36
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
0.75
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.35
0.30
0.33
0.25
0.36
0.36
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Dila over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Dila
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.63
1.50
0.69
1.07
0.57
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.71
1.43
0.71
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (14)
1.36
0.43
1.50
0.50
1.17
0.33
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Meshakhte) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Meshakhte
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
0.81
0.62
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.52
0.61
0.58
0.58
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Dila) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Dila over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dila over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Meshakhte over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
82.0%
1.39
Pinnacle
1.42
Betfair
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
888Sport
1.36
+15.8%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (26)
€7m
TK (22)
€7m
DB (25)
€6m
SAB (22)
€6m
DIL (23)
€4m
SAM (24)
€3m
GAG (23)
€3m
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
Dila's squad is €3m more valuable than Meshakhte's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DB (9)
€3m
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (7)
€3m
TK (7)
€2m
DIL (8)
€2m
SAM (9)
€1m
GAG (8)
€1m
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
Dila's attack is €1m more valuable than Meshakhte's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (5)
€2m
SAB (5)
€2m
DB (6)
€1m
MES (5)
€1m
SAM (5)
€1m
GAG (6)
€1m
DT (4)
€1m
DIL (6)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
Dila and Meshakhte have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DT (11)
€3m
SAB (10)
€2m
TK (10)
€2m
DIL (9)
€2m
DB (10)
€2m
SAM (10)
€1m
RUS (10)
€1m
GAG (9)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
Dila's defence is €2m more valuable than Meshakhte's (€2m vs €1m).
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Rustavi
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Tbilisi
Samgurali
Gagra
Saburtalo
Torpedo Kutaisi
Spaeri